I have no idea how to do this math. Whats my chances of busting an $8000 roll shortstacking the $5/$10 game with $200 as each buy in?

Win rate of 2 PTBBs
SD of 25.5 PTBBs

Hmm, I plugged this into a couple of different ROR calculators and it spit out 0.729049% but I'm not sure how to factor in (or if it matters) the shortstacking.

Oh, and no talk of busting the roll man.

You don't need to factor in the short stacking separately as its effects are shown in lower variance (as reflected in your SD of 25.5PTBB/100).

But... you have to very careful when applying the RoR formula to poker. For a start, PT's SD figure is session-based, and is pretty meaningless IMO because you could play one session where you get stacked (lose xBBs) on half of the hands, but stack someone (win xBBs) on the other half, and although you'd have experienced nightmarish real variance of the type that might have you smashing something up, PT would still show your SD as 0. Sure, this will tend towards a more accurate figure with time, but it's not clear how many hands and sessions that takes.

The other reason to treat RoR with distrust is that your win rate is likely to be quite inaccurate...which is all just as well because the figure I'm getting for your RoR is ~8.5%. If your true win rate were 4PTBB/100 instead, your RoR would drop to the figure Leon gives.

Ahh Northy I think you are right. Pretty sure I put the PTBB in wrong.

how many hands?

1 in 12 chance if I start losing right from the start and never move down.