PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (7 handed) from (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, J.
2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) K, 7, 2 (3 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, Button folds, BB calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (7.25 BB) 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Final Pot: 9.25 BB

Obviously, I thought this was pretty standard...thought about going for the free card on the turn, but figured:

A) had some fold equity
B) I was thinking that I may need a free showdown if a brick hits on the river and since I would have called a bet on the turn, I may as well bet
C) This guy had folded on several hands to turn bets when he checked them...which is where I got my fold equity statement from.

I don't like the turn bet, period.

This guy has a King, or at least something he feels is worth betting. He's not folding. We're behind. You're raise on the flop bought us a free card, use it. Unless you've seen him lead out on the flop, into a raiser, then fold on the river, I really don't think you have much fold equity. You probably saw him fold a lot of turns after passive/cheap flops.

By checking the turn, you won't lose any bets, cause he'll lead out on the river when that 'brick' hits, and if you miss, you can bail and save two bets.

Yes, I'm advocating passivity here.

That said, I don't think you played it wrong, In fact I think your play is +EV, just that I think my way is higher +EV.

I think the fold equity is substantial on the turn. I would guess villain folds about >20% of the times here. He could fold with 7x (not very often though), 2x, 66-44 (more often) and with a complete bluff Ax or any two (very often)

First i would like to address the turn fold equity:

- What do people in villain shoes donk with?

From my experience its either a flush draw, low pair, medium pair, top pair, set, two pairs or a complete bluff on this board. Hey, thats any hand!

We can assume that a complete bluff is pretty unlikely and so is a set (even bad players want to keep people in with sets and will more often check/call or check/raise). Two pairs is more of a donking hand but still its often check/raised.

- How many hands are donkbet hands?

For this calculation i will assume that this villain would donk bet any pair (including pocket pairs) and any flush draw and sometimes two pairs. (I also gave villain a pretty loose handrange but discarded a lot of offsuit hands and the most premium of hands... which he would fold or reraise respectively.) The handrange for villain is then 61.09% going to flop.

By using a similar program to pokerstove called equilator i found out that out of 100% of the hands the donkbet hands will amount to 32.58% (that he would also call pre flop with!)

- But how much of the 32.58% (donkbet hands) would he fold on turn with?

My software said that out of 100% of hands possible folding hands are between 5-6%. (excluding pre flop fold hands and hands that make two pairs and set on turn) Also i wish for you to remember trons read... that the villain was kind of tight post flop!

So 5.88% if he folds any 2x and 7x with a kicker card below 6 (but not 3) and low pocket pairs such as 44-66 (but not 33 giving villain set on turn)

And 4.07% if he is looser and calls any 7x however low kicker.

- So how often will he fold to a turn semi bluff bet?

I then divided folding hands with 32.58%:

5.88/32.58= 18%
4.07/32.58= 12.5%

So depending on how right that read of villain was he would fold between 12.5-18% of his hands on the turn. Although trons read leads us closer toward 18% i guess there are a few 2x hands that also gives villain a flush draw.

So i would say that 15% is the fold equity that we have on turn.

To conclude this number makes my >20% wrong as does it marms <10%. And the answer to our fold equity is somewhere in between. Closer to 15%!

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more to come....

- How close to home is the above assumptions?

Depends. I had to make a lot of them (assumptions) to get 15% fold equity.

I excluded all bluffing hands from his donkbet range. But included some of semi bluff hands like flush draw. I also included quite a few 2pair hands skewing the result to a bit more conservative standards.

Therefore if you think villain is capable of outright bluffs and can possibly find a fold on turn. Then fold equity is clearly above 15%.

On the other hand... The fact that he called the flop raise leads us closer to 15% fold equity. (since he could fold to the flop raise with a lot of outright bluffs)