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300 $5.50 SNGs - analysis please - Live Poker Forums

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300 $5.50 SNGs - analysis please

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300 $5.50 SNGs - analysis please

Postby kdiddy33 » Thu Jun 09, 2005 6:18 am

Here are my numbers. They are good, but...variance has me concerned about a few things.

total won....$2,133
total bet.....$1,650
Plus/Minus..$483
ITM%.........48%
ROI%........29%

1st 100 SNGs - played exclusively at Pacific:
total won...$885
total bet....$550
Plus/Minus.$335
ITM%........58%
ROI%........61%

2nd 100 SNGs - mix of Pacific/PokerStarst and Ultimate Bet
total won...$618
total bet....$550
Plus/Minus.$68
ITM%........42%
ROI%........12%

3rd 100 SNGs - all at UB
total won...$630
total bet....$550
Plus/Minus.$80
ITM%........42%
ROI%........15%

From this trend, I can see that I killed at Pacific (obviously), but when I've moved to the less fishy sites, its a little tougher. This makes sense to me. There are differences in the games, as at Pacific you only get $800 in chips and blinds go up every 15 hands, while at PokerStars and UB, you get $1500 in chips, blinds are times. I didn't care for PokerStarts as much as UB personally.

I think that as I've played more, I have found myself playing less straight forward, trying to make more cute plays. I think that may be a leak in my game. Although, at UB, there are normally 4-5 players at each SNG that have decent skills and play more frequently (I keep notes on each player and level).

Obviously, I didn't expect (but hoped!) that my first 100 games would be indicative of how I would continue to play, but I'm a little surprised/concerned by my ROI drop off at this level. Am I reading too much into this?
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Postby Nashvegas » Thu Jun 09, 2005 6:52 am

Nashvegas
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Postby kdiddy33 » Thu Jun 09, 2005 7:42 am

Thanks for the feedback.

I know I have the bankroll for it. For some lame reason, I just feel like taking the bankroll to $1000 before making a dedicated move to the $11s.

Here is the most ridiculous thing you'll ever here, I want to have 100 times the buy in to feel comfortable moving up. Everyone throw your tomatoes, I'll duck!!!
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Postby tommyhawk » Thu Jun 09, 2005 8:51 am

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Postby Nashvegas » Thu Jun 09, 2005 8:56 am

Nashvegas
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Postby kdiddy33 » Thu Jun 09, 2005 9:27 am

Good, you?
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Postby flafishy » Thu Jun 09, 2005 11:29 am

That variance doesn't seem out of the ordinary to me. That many SnGs, a 29% ROI is certainly more than respectable, no matter how it's distributed.

But please move up. I have steadily moved up the latter from $5s to now $50s, using a bankroll of 30x the buyin as my guide. I hit a few bumps as I moved up to each level. It took me awhile to start getting consistent results at $10, the same at $20, the same at $30. I've just now moved up to $50.

Anyway, I find a $10 SnG harder to beat now than a $30 one because the play is so much wilder and there's so much more guesswork involved. A $5 one now is damn near impossible for me to beat. I do think your play will improve as you throw yourself into the fire at the next level, and I think once you do adjust, you'll be more comfortable at $10 than at $5, and the bottom line profits will be much better.
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Postby kdiddy33 » Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:39 pm

Thanks fishy.

Perhaps I'll start mixing $11s in with my $5.50s while multi-tabling. They play almost the same. I have played 48 $11s at Pacific only and put up some decent numbers.

total won......$670
total bet........$528
Plus/Minus....$142
ITM%.............44%
ROI%............ 27%

I think I wanted to get comfortable with the structure of the game and software at UB. I guess since I have played about 150 SNGs at UB, I should start mixing them in and move up.

Thanks for the advice, you always give the good stuff. You play on UB by the way?
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Postby flafishy » Sat Jun 11, 2005 9:03 am

Wow, kdiddy. Thanks for the compliment. I do try to be thoughtful about these things, so I'm glad it helps. It also helps me a lot sometimes to crystallize my thoughts and write them out.

Anyway, yes, I play on UB. I think UB's blinds structure is the best, and I do pretty well in SnGs there. The players there can be a little trickier on the whole (check-raising and slowplaying monsters seem to be particularly prominent there), but that is something you can adjust easily to if you keep your head in the game.

But because the blinds move up relatively slowly there, which favors skill over luck, I think you would be successful there.
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Postby kdiddy33 » Mon Jun 13, 2005 8:21 am

Thanks Fishy. I took your advice and moved up to the $11s on Friday. Did well early on, ITM in 7/8. Then I took a beating and fell OTM 8 of 9. So, net net, it was positive, but I had to move back to the $5.50s after that pummeling. Anyways, up $45 for the weekend, which is ok, but not good considering how much time I put in.

Anywhoos, what's your handle on UB, so I can holler at you. I had somebody give me the what up on Saturday from BTP, pretty cool.

Mine is kdiddy33.

Thanks
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