"FWIW, to start: I very firmly believe that <0.1% of all poker players can be multi-year winners. And even then, perhaps half have had a significantly 'lucky' run of it at least at one or two significant points along their run. I consider myself to be one of them."

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I agree that a very small percenatge of people are long term winners and I try to take comfort in that when Im not doing well because I am one of the multi year winners, but I think your number of <0.1% is overboard.

Anyone who is winning for a year or 2 should be able to continue winning as long as they move back down when they hit their ceiling. I have been winning to some degree nonstop since I started playing. I moved up (alot alot slower than most people) and when I finally hit a point that was too much for me (combo of too many players better than me and too much variance for me to stomach), I moved back down. $5/$10 6 max post UIGEA was over my head. I think if you can admit to yourself that youre over your head, and you move abck down, you should be fine. Of course alot of people's ego wont allow them to do that.

Dont interpret any of that to mean that I think you failed or anything. If I was playing for a living with no other income...with a family to support, I wouldve probably quit long ago.

I just mean that alot higher than 0.1% of players could move down to a comfortable level and win basically forever if thats what they wanted to do.

Which person do you consider yourself to be one of? The people who can win multi-year? Or a person who needed a lucky run along the way?

I think the 0.1% might be a little too much but who knows. There's a lot of people who used to be solid winners who are now losers/break even players. Most people dont have a clue about the math behind the game and that is why they thinki they are winnin players because they've been winning for a year.

I think the edges are just too small for most players these days, and that makes it even harder to establish if they are really winning players with a high degree of certainty.

Do you mean 0.1% of people who try to play profitably long-term or does this include casual players and hobbyists as well?

And, oh yeah, don't think I said welcome back yet.

guys, is the 0,1% really that important?

the 0.1% thing is really important because ask yourself this question: Which one of all the activities you have been involved in (sports,academically,professionally,etc) have you been among the best 0.1% in?

It is only a way to express the degree of difficulty the game has if you're planning on having poker income, i suppose.

<0.1% is less than one in a thousand...

Maybe of all people who have tried poker, but I though the figure was fairly well established at 5% of online players as being significant winners and 10% more being breakeven (FGATORS anyone?).

Personally I can't see how anyone can fail to be a long-term winner if they can beat 1c/2/c and have sufficient bankroll discipline - you just need a modicum of skill, patience and discipline after all...

I do agree though that the biggest issues are psychological ones:
Poker is a very odd game in that perfect play doesn't necessarily get rewarded with instant success and a bad player can absolutely destroy a better one on any given day.

You can sit for hours or even days or weeks at a time, play well and get pounded time after time for sums that are significant to you- to take that and remain emotionally detached requires zen buddhist levels of calm that that few of us have.

In general every poker player ever born feels they should win a coin-flip about 90% of the time - the danger starts as soon as a sense of entitlement outruns their skill level or bankroll..

It also attracts those who are gamblers and/or pursuing the dream of easy money.

All these result in a stubborn refusal to move down and often a propensity to blame bad luck or the other players rather than critically examine your own failings so you can improve.

As a result the player often either moves up too fast or just stays stuck once he hits the ceiling and burns out.

It's a lot easier for R&R and pocket money players like Ice and me than for the young wannabee pros is some respects. I envy the time they have to spend on the game, but i can always take a month off if I want and only play when I want to and am enjoying it.

I