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What to bet? (PLO100)

Postby Aisthesis » Sun Oct 21, 2007 11:15 pm

I have QQ63 UTG and limp (stack $143).

5 to the flop, which comes Qc7c4h. A pretty aggro player in BB fires pot, and I call (ok, one can raise here, but I'm liking the call usually--keeps more bad hands in). Turn comes 4c, sweet! He checks, and I half-pot. He calls.

River 3d, so nothing new. Now he fires full pot, and I raise pot (he had $127 at the beginning of the hand). He folds... :(

I'm thinking this might have been a good spot to mini-raise, actually. I look very flushy, and I think he'll definitely at least call with nut flush, maybe even re-pot, probably repot 77.

Opinions?

The trick here is certainly not to get called exclusively by 44...

Anyhow, I think my bet was too big.
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Postby Ojingo » Tue Oct 23, 2007 8:21 am

Well, his line looks a lot more than a boat (slowplay the turn, fire the river) so I'd raise to an amount which is hard to lay down a boat to, say 3x his bet. Usually if they call a minraise they'll also call 2.5-3x.
The minraise seems only good if it will induce a shove, but that probably won't happen here unless he has quads.
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Tue Oct 23, 2007 4:10 pm

I think there's precious little in it, but if the only hand he calls a minraise which he won't call a full raise with is the nut flush, I think it's best to full pot here. I can't see him folding Q4 or 77 here to a full pot (obviously) and I think these are about equally as likely as the nut flush; you make more by extracting a full pot bet (I think) from these than you do by extracting a min bet from the nut flush. I really think you probably got all you could here, unless you strongly felt he was on the nut flush. TBH, nowadays I find people just tend to muck any non-boat here when you try to milk a bettor on the river, so you probably lost nothing.

Plus, I always kick myself more when someone flat calls here with Q4 than I do when someone with an unknown hand folds. "Better the devil you know" does not really hold true in this case, IMO...
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