$28K Gaurranteed at Full Tilt. A tournament that I have had NO luck in ever, but that's about to change.

I have been at this table the entire time with most of these same people. I believe I have an excellent image. I haven't tried anything stupid yet and anytime I've bet or raised and been called, I've shown down a big hand. That's how I got to be the big stack of course.

We started with 1587 and 216 get paid. We are at about 500 so getting close where people might not want to be put at risk with a decent stack, but not exactly near the bubble yet.

No Limit Holdem Tournament
$28000 Guarantee
9 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG (4083)
UTG+1 (7750)
MP1 (5610)
MP2 (13020)
MP3 (7700)
CO (8335)
BTN (10045)
Hero (15110)
BB (7521)

Blinds: 120/240 Ante 25

Pre-flop: (585, 9 players) Hero is SB [Th]
5 folds, CO raises to 720 (7615), BTN calls 720 (9325), Hero ???

There's 2K sitting out there and even if I get called I can flop well. If I raise to anything much above 2K though, I'd be getting close to 2 to 1 if CO shoved though.

I'm going to let this sit for a while longer, but after thinking about it for most of the night last night I still think the raise here is the right move. But now I think I might have made a mistake afterward which I'll post a little later.

I agree with your assessment on other players not knowing or having a different view of my table image than I do. The best you can do is see how people play, along with what kind of comments they make in chat, and then make your best guess. That is why normally I wouldn't make this sort of move outside the parameters that I laid out in the beginning.
1 - I'd been at this table with most of these people for the entire tourny.
2 - The players in the hand all seemed to have fold buttons and I thought there was a good chance they had me pegged at pretty tight with the hands I've shown down.
3 - We're getting towards that stage in the tournament where people have invested enough time and have enough chips if they fold that they might not want to risk their tourny life in a marginal situation.

How much would you have raised here though?

No Limit Holdem Tournament
$28000 Guarantee
9 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG (4083)
UTG+1 (7750)
MP1 (5610)
MP2 (13020)
MP3 (7700)
CO (8335)
BTN (10045)
Hero (15110)
BB (7521)

Blinds: 120/240 Ante 25

Pre-flop: (585, 9 players) Hero is SB [Th]
5 folds, CO raises to 720 (7615), BTN calls 720 (9325), Hero raises to 2360 (12630), BB goes all-in 7496 (0), CO folds (7615), BTN folds (9325), Hero ???

Unexpected. Now we have a decision. It costs 5136 for us to call in a 11521 pot. That's a bit over 2 to 1. I'd still have 7614 if I called.

I completely agree with you on the math thing. There are times I'll use it and times where I think it's way over-rated. I think we actually had this conversation a while back concerning the HOH books where we agreed on this concept.

For example, if it's going to cost me my tournament life or cripple me, I won't abide by the pot odds.

However, if I'm going to have a sizable stack left and there are a LOT of chips in the pot as there were here, I'll go with it. The loss didn't cripple me, but, like I said, I still got the math wrong by like 1 to 3%.

Results wise, it was the mathematically right call in this particular hand, but still just wrong against his range.....(effin turn.....mother effin river!)

No Limit Holdem Tournament
$28000 Guarantee
9 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG (4083)
UTG+1 (7750)
MP1 (5610)
MP2 (13020)
MP3 (7700)
CO (8335)
BTN (10045)
Hero (15110)
BB (7521)

Blinds: 120/240 Ante 25

Pre-flop: (585, 9 players) Hero is SB [Th]
5 folds, CO raises to 720 (7615), BTN calls 720 (9325), Hero raises to 2360 (12630), BB goes all-in 7496 (0), CO folds (7615), BTN folds (9325), Hero calls 5136 (7614)
38.70% (EV = -$962.67)
61.30% (EV = $2052.70)

Flop: [Jc][7s] (16882, 2 players)
74.10% (EV = $12514.75)
25.90% (EV = $4034.44)

Turn: (16889, 2 players)
65.90% (EV = $11129.85)
34.10% (EV = $5311.76)

River: (16889, 2 players)
0.00% (EV = $0.00)
100.00% (EV = $15577.00)

Final Pot: 16657
Hero shows: [Th]
BB shows: [Ks]

BB wins 16657 ( won +9161 )
Hero lost -7496
CO lost -720
BTN lost -720


But that's ok, because now I've got a looser, stealing image and it allowed me to get all those chips back just 2 hands later.......

No Limit Holdem Tournament
$28000 Guarantee
9 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG (5560)
UTG+1 (12970)
MP1 (7170)
MP2 (7565)
MP3 (9275)
Hero (7564)
BTN (18057)
SB (3793)
BB (7220)

Blinds: 120/240 Ante 25

Pre-flop: (585, 9 players) Hero is CO [Qd]
5 folds, Hero raises to 700 (6864), 2 folds, BB calls 460 (6520)
60.00% (EV = $482.00)
40.00% (EV = $88.00)

Flop: [4d][Ac] (1970, 2 players)
BB checks (6520), Hero bets 1240 (5624), BB calls 1240 (5280)
78.00% (EV = $2234.12)
22.00% (EV = -$260.12)

Turn: (4454, 2 players)
BB checks (5280), Hero bets 3120 (2504), BB calls 3120 (2160)
70.50% (EV = $4419.27)
29.50% (EV = $34.73)

River: (10694, 2 players)
BB goes all-in 2135 (25), Hero calls 2135 (369)
0.00% (EV = -$2135.00)
100.00% (EV = $12829.00)

Final Pot: 14735
Hero shows: [Qd]
BB shows: [9d]

BB wins 14735 ( won +7540 )
Hero lost -7195


FULL EFFIN TILT