do not fold this. You have blockers to the nuts, and you are only 30% dog to T9. People play a ton of draws like this and even overplay a bare Q here often enough.

Well for starters you keep saying 'barring a read'. We may not have an exact read like he never checkraises draws or whatever, but we certainly have information that we can use and to not use it would be wasteful.

1. He is 30/15 over 20 hands and 'seems a bit loose'.

2. He is sitting on a $153.25 stack.

What does this say to me? That he's probably not a multi-tabling pro. That he's probably a losing player. That he probably makes some plays that are sub-optimal. That he probably does some things some times that would make a good player think "HUH?!".

Yes there's a chance he's a better player than all of us, or a chance that he's a winning player, but there is a greater chance that what I said is true.

Preflop he calls a raise and call out of the BB. I think we can eliminate QQ from his range almost entirely. Let's say out of QQ, JJ, TT and 99 he will always 3bet with QQ and always call with 99. Half of the time he'll 3bet with JJ/TT and half of the time he'll call. I think those are fair assumptions. We have no reason to believe that he's overly aggro or overly passive.

Let's also say that he'll call with hands like AQ, KQ, KJ, QJ, JT, T9 and Axs a decent amount of the time.

Let's assume he doesn't call us with J8 preflop (because if he's that bad, then this is definitely a call).

Let's assume he never leads the flop with any of his range. Big hands, draws, air, whatever. We have no reason to believe he would.

Let's assume that when we bet and the button folds, he sometimes slowplays his sets or KJ, and sometimes shove. Let's also assume he sometimes calls with draws and sometimes shoves with them. Let's assume the same for his marginal hands like AQ or KQ. Honestly though I think he shoves these hands a lot more than he calls but w/e.

I don't have pokerstove on my new laptop but let's give him a range something like:

AQ, KQ, KJ, QJ, JT, JJ, TT, 99, AJd, A8d.

You can take some combinations of some of the hands out to make up for the times he doesn't play them this way - but I think you could take an equal amount out of hands that we're ahead of and hands that are ahead of us out to make up for each other.

The pot is $186.25.

We have to call $129.25.

So we're getting 1.44 : 1, therefore we need to win 1 in 2.44 times or 41% of the time.

This makes it a breakeven call vs QT or T9. Against KQ or AQ it's a hugely +EV call. Against TT or 99 it's pretty -EV, but we still have like 25% equity. It's only KJ that we're far behind of.

I don't have pokerstove on here but I'd challenge someone to find a realistic range that makes this a bad call. I'm not saying try to find a range that we beat and use that as an excuse for making the call - I'm saying try to find a range that we're behind to.

I don't see why you don't think he'd do this with AQ or KQ or whatever.

If he has 100bb+ then it's a lot closer, or if we don't have the gutshot then it's a lot closer - but in this case I think it's absolutely definitely a call.

originally i thought the pot was 3bet and i was like "easy call."

but i see its not 3bet, and that the check-shove is a pretty serious overbet.

i would muck the cowboys here.

Roy, If you add QT and T9 into your range, KK has 58% equity so its not like its a massivley +EV call. I persoanlly think your range is way too wide only because I rarel see people play AQ and KQ like this at these stakes.

Also, 20 hands isnt enough to make any kind of read. The guy hasnt even shown down a hand and it doesnt sound like hes gotten all in 3 times already or anything like that so we have no reason to think hesa maniac.

Again, Im not saying its a horrible call. Im just saying i think its pretty close to nuetral EV and I fold. people wonder why my variance is so low. This is a big reason why.