Well, according to mood, I've been playing some PLO 50, online short-handed NLHE (mainly 50s) and casino NLHE 1/2. Casino 1/2 is really my cash cow, with PLO50 a distant second. So, a separate thread for casino, where my goal is to see where the money is really coming from.

The regular 1/2 is closer than getting to the 2/5, where the players are just way better, and my hourly at the 1/2 is slightly higher at the moment than at the 2/5, so I figured why not play for higher wage at lower risk? For the most part, the game is ultra loose passive, but, depending on who's there, the table can play a bit tighter, too.

I will say that I had a couple of coolers this month where it just felt like I couldn't catch.

But I did pick up some tells on some cracked AA hands. One is kind of nebulous, so I won't go into it. The other is worth noting: I have AA, and the flop comes K75 with 2 hearts (I have Ah). I'm full after reloading in this session. Villain is rather LAG-ish but seems to respect my bets. Anyhow, I had raised to 15 with 2 callers and fired 30 into the pot of 45. Turn something like an 8. I check, expecting him to bet, and he does, with this kind of shrugging of shoulders, as if to say, "Well, if you're going to check..." I CRAI to his bet of 35 or so (really a pretty bad play, but he was a LAG, and I could not for the life of me catch a hand--and had had AA cracked earlier by AQs for stack). He insta-calls with 77 for flopped set. The only time I've ever seen this tell is on monsters. I really think taking it slow and processing is what I need to do in such situations before proceeding with whatever plan I may have.

The back to a solid win Thurs nite on basically 2 hands and only about 5 hours of play. After maybe an hour or so, EP (pretty tight raiser) raises to 12, and I call with 77. He's short with only 100-ish, but one typically gets very good pot odds for setting. As usual, about 4 other players call. Flop T77. He bets, I call. Turn something, he pushes the rest, I call and obviously win.

Then I flopped top set with re-raised KK and a villain flops a lower set. But he's also just a half-stack. Anyhow, my total winnings of 180 were all due to these hands and the rest was all a bit less than break-even.

Also noteworthy are some statistics here: I got extremely lucky with 2 set+ hands in 5 hours, which is only about 100 hands. I felt like my luck was bad the previous night having AA lose twice for stack and win minimal pots the other 2 times (I was over my fair share of AA hands, but behind on how they did).

Then last night. I got there around 9 intending to play until about 3. Made a good calldown against a bluffer to my right with my own raised AK that completely missed, but he only had KQ, and the board was JJ445 by the river. The way he played, I thought the best he had was probably a 5--and I wasn't entirely seeing that given the betting sequence. So, that got me back up over even after bleeding.

The real problem was that I kept missing draws that I'm routinely semi-bluffing. On some particularly monstrous ones, I even 2-barreled, and once successfully 3-barreled but got caught betting the river once, too, into 2 pair.

Game got short-handed, and I won a decent pot with just an A on A2s, but then lost a slightly bigger one playing A3o in SB. I should've gotten away from it even though the board was A24K on the turn when I called. OOP, I wasn't going to extract value from this player on my gutshot.

Then stacked a guy on a set that turned into a boat. I don't think I played the hand optimally, though, but fortunately he river his straight (the board had paired on the turn, and I checked, hoping he would bet--should've made a passive bet, because I knew he was drawing).

By this time, it was really late, like 5 a.m., but I was actually feeling pretty decent after a good coffee, and felt like everyone else was more tired than I. Prior to the boat vs. straight hand I was down about 220, then not down much.

Where I ended up winning was actually on some marginal plays.

1) I have Ac4c OTB and call a raise to 5. Flop comes 3c5s7s. Raiser, who probably has near nothing, bets 10. I call. I think runner-runner here (plus gutshot) can get me somewhere, particularly since EP is deep (and so am I now, with over 400). I also think I can probably steal from raiser (and may even have the best hand). EP makes it 30, raiser folds, and I call. I think EP has a pretty big hand here, probably straight, maybe 2 pair or set. He would've bet out with spades.

Turn 6s. He makes a semi-passive bet, and I call. I really should've raised, but he makes awfully ballsy calls. Anyhow, I just call him down, and we split the pot with his 64, one of which was a spade. This was no doubt a good bluffing spot, but I was tired and so was he, and I didn't do it.

2) I call a raise to 12 from same MP player with 6h5h OTB (game now somewhat short-handed, mainly because several of the players are getting up constantly, and it's about 7 am). Flop comes 4s7s9s. Raiser fires 15 into the pot of 36. I make it 60. Deep EP calls (?). Raiser folds. Turn pairs the board. He checks, and I check. Again a bad play on my part. I really should fire at least a feeler here repping the flush--like with the pot at 150, maybe another 60. I figure him for a big spade probably, and he might call, but the paired board might scare him, too. River offsuit 3, making my straight. He checks, and I check. Again a bad play really for me. A bet of 50-60 here is fine, and he might call with some weird pair. He definitely bets if he has me beat.

3) Double straddled pot, and I call 10 in SB with TT. Then BB makes it 40. He has had a huge run, and has my 450 or so covered. Same deep EP, who has been bleeding (he's a big time chaser), calls, and I call. Really a very marginal call here, I think. The raise is much too big even given the stack depth. Actually, if I'm going to call it, I'm also going to need to try to steal it sometimes but had no adequate plan for that. Anyhow, flop comes KT9... hmmm. I'm quite sure raiser will fire, and he does fire 60 into the pot of 120-ish. Bleeding and no longer quite so deep MP (same guy) calls, and I make it 200. Both fold. So, I won 200 from a call of 30. I guess the PF call wasn't quite as marginal as I thought. I do think I can extract more value if the board isn't quite so difficult (raiser showed JJ, by the way), and I still made 200 from a call of 30. So, I didn't quite get back my 7.5:1 but close on a board where I really couldn't give freecards imo.

So, on Thursday's winner, I won by just waiting for monsters. Last night (which I closed out up 230 after 11 hours), I really turned the session around late night with some dubious plays for the most part.

Conclusions: I'm beginning to get some reads on several regulars (allowing mainly the AK missed calldown for a decent profit). Sets are gold in this game. Low flushes are dubious, and currently my SCs aren't hitting well. Semi-bluffs are still something of a question mark. I think straights will give a lot of value because they'll overplay 2 pair or even TP to a straight. On flush draws, I should be pretty cautious if not to the nuts.

I do think I've established myself as a semi-bluffer, not so much a nit, particularly late night, although I see WAY fewer flops than anyone else in the game.

I also think the main thing I need to do in almost all situations is to do a bit of a Farha-like dance prior to all significant decisions--just seriously processing all the info available to me. Also not get frustrated when the cards are cold. That cost over 400 the night my AA kept getting cracked. Maintaining discipline against cold cards is probably my biggest leak. Carefully considering bluffs and value bets (I've driven some players out badly at times) is another, but probably second place to maintaining discipline.

Not sure whether I'll have the energy to play tonight--although it's Saturday and should be a good game, just not much sleep last night...

nice ais. live games are definitely the best. keep me posted on the [0,1] game. have you look at the university of alberta site?

no, although I've exchanged some emails with one of their guys (who apparently never read this huge manuscript I sent him a couple of years ago). Anything of interest?