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Blocked into on river. I'd raise a 7 but not a T (NL$200) - Live Poker Forums

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Blocked into on river. I'd raise a 7 but not a T (NL$200)

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Blocked into on river. I'd raise a 7 but not a T (NL$200)

Postby DoctorHandles » Thu May 08, 2008 11:06 pm

Villain seems like a marginal winner. He is 30/20 over a decent sample, not really good for a regular but probably grinds himself out some nice rakeback.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Converter Tool from (Format: Bet The Pot)

Button ($392.15)
SB ($134.60)
BB ($200)
UTG ($223)
MP ($225)
Hero ($224.70)

Preflop: Hero is CO with [Qs], [Kh].
1 fold, MP raises to $8, Hero calls $8, 3 folds.

Flop: ($19) [As], [8h], [Qh] (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $14, MP calls $14.

Turn: ($47) [Qd] (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $31, MP calls $31.

River: ($109) [Td] OR [7d] (2 players)
MP bets $32

1. Do you raise the river block when it's a T?
2. Do you raise the river block when it's a 7?

I think I am good here almost always, but I also feel I usually fold out everything I beat with a shove and get called by everything I doi beat. I have no history with this villain and don't think he's calling my shove with an ace here, but that said his line looks weak and people do stupid things, so who knows if he'll convince himself into calling with AJ or AK if it's even in his range.

That said, I would probably raise if the river is a 7, and call if the river is a T. Thoughts?

Jeez I edited this a lot.
Last edited by DoctorHandles on Thu May 08, 2008 11:39 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Postby Danhdan » Thu May 08, 2008 11:27 pm

I have no idea what happened in this hand, so I call. He raises PF, let's you lead on that flop, and again on that turn, then bets out on the river? This looks like a monster or a weak ace to me or maybe he missed a draw. BTW, I'm confused on the 9-T question: I think JT(the double gutter) might be in his range here a decent amount of the time with a 30/20.

I like a call here, although I wouldn't be surprised if someone convinced me that this is a raise because it's just a tiny bit better in the long run. :)
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Postby DoctorHandles » Thu May 08, 2008 11:32 pm

Well a T hits [Kh][Jh] or something silly, they don't make much sense but either does this line so it's kinda hard to put him on a really specific range. It also makes QT beat me.

The 9 will do nothing though hence I'll get it in.

EDIT: OH WAIT YES IT WILL HE'S DOUBLE GUTTED! Actual river was a T, pretend the river is an 7 I'll edit the main post.
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Postby Danhdan » Thu May 08, 2008 11:43 pm

I think the chance that he has QT or [Kh] [Jh](or maybe even TT, ugh) when a [Td] hits the river is even less than the chance he has a combination of JT or 99 or Q9 when a [9d] hits.

Wow, let me say it another way: I think it's near to impossible he sucked out on your here, and I don't think your raised gets called by much you beat except QJ or AK unless he's seen you 3-barrel bluff a draw. Then, I think almost all aces could call here. But, it's hard for me to put him on AK or a Queen after the action.
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Postby iceman5 » Fri May 09, 2008 6:37 am

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Postby T-Rod » Fri May 09, 2008 7:21 am

I think I raise the river a lot here but it might be a leaky leak.

I think he probably wants a showdown with some mediumish hand. That says raise, but I also don't think he calls with very much and there is value is seeing his hand. There is also the small percentage of the time that he donk played the nuts here so you'd get stacked there without the upside of stacking him occasionally to compensate.

Call
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