I just sat down in a $1/$2 blind NL game with a $40 to $100 buy-in yesterday and came in behind the button and was dealt the . UTG brought it in for $10 and it was called in 4 spots by the time it got to me. A look left showed no danger and more callers and so I called. I had bought in for $100 and UTG had about $120 - everyone else had less than $100.

We took the flop 7 handed and it came . Checked to UTG who bet $10 and it was folded around to me. Another look left showed no interest in the flop. What do you do? Results to follow.

TUP

Here are my (inexperienced and somewhat rambling) thoughts on it.

How confusing. He's priced everyone in for almost any kind of draw.

It looks like a frustration bet where he's got a big pair or AK in the pocket and was raring to go preflop, but now he's out of position facing 6 people who may hold the nuts. He realizes he should bet, but he can't make a 'reasonable' bet because of he'd be moving towards being pot committed out of position with no information.

You can't flat call because that'd be silly. You'd give him a cheap shot to take the pot away, and he probably won't pay a flush off because it'll have looked too obvious.

You can't bet like two thirds of the pot because there won't be a 'reasonable' sized bet in relation to the pot left in your stacks, so you will effectively be committed.

You could bet half the pot, but there's probably no folding equity there and he might think you're trying to take it away from him with nada and call. With your draw you can't just see one more card because if it's a bad one (A, K, Q and not a club) your resolve will ebb and you will probably have to give the pot up to any action by him.

You are a ~5% favorite to make a straight over the next two cards, so theoretically at least you're +EV to go all-in. If he calls, you are mathematically OK, if he folds you've won a nice pot.

The key point for me is that you have to see two cards with that draw and can't afford to outguess yourself if a bad one comes on the turn.

All in.

I bet this is all wrong, but it was fun to think about anyhow.

[edit: 5% favorite to make at least a straight over the next 2 cards]

I see now why you make so much money in these games. 4 people before you call a 5BB raise and nobody wants any part of this flop when he only bet $10 into a $60 or so pot? I need to move to Vegas and hang out with you.

Im all in. I have no idea what kind of hand he would play like this. He obviously doesnt know what hes doing because there IS no hand that should be played like this. I would be happy winning the $70 or so pot which I think you'll do 9 times out of 10 by going all in. If he calls, thats ok too. The only hand Id be afaird of is [Kc] or [Qc] but he shouldve gone all in with those. Or check raised all in with them. Maybe thats what he was going to do?

I would push. There's about $80 in the pot and you have $90 left. You may win the pot outright, and you're a favorite against an overpair with your straight flush draw.

I thought about [Kc] myself, but since you can't possibly know right now with the amount of information emitted by him, and there is no other course of action that doesn't leave you fearing the turn, you must go all-in surely?

Even if he happens to hold overcard clubs, you're still 43% to win. Since that's only a small part of the range he could be holding, I think pushing is fine.

I just ran the numbers and youre right about the 43%. That surprised me. Now theres no doubt in my mind that Im all in.

I do have a question for you though TUP. This is something Ive been arguing for quite some time and maybe Im wrong. I like to raise with suited connectors but I rarely like to call a raise with them, especialliy mutliway. I know alot of people play them that way but heres my problem with it.

You called $10 with your [9c]. You correctly assumed that it wouldnt be raised behind you so you can expect the pot to be $60 for the flop. Heres the problem: Barring getting the perfect flop which you got, how are you going to draw to anything when the pot is almost a full stack already?

If the flop was something more normal like [5s][2c] and Im the preflop raiser, Im going all in if I hit the flop.
If the flop is [8s][4d] and I have AA or KK, Im going all in again. Theres no way you can draw to your hand when the pot is that big unless someone makes a big mistake.
Yes, I guess youre only risking $10, but if you dont hit the flop HARD like you did or with 2 pair, you have to fold almost every time.

Seems like a pretty easy all in. Against any SINGLE holding you can't be much worse than 40% so with the size of the pot you have odds to play in any situation when it's heads up. You have great fold equity pushing all in, and you're most likely to resolve it into a heads-up battle if not. What happened when you moved in on him?

Monk
xxxxx

PS anyone else thinking "WTF am I doing on the poker forums on Christmas day?" lol thought not....

My vote also goes to all-in. With such shallow stacks, there ain't much else you can do. Any other raise leaves you easily pot committed and since the money is going in anyway you might as well do it on the flop. One of the things that I really hate about the 1/2 baby-NL games is that in a lot of places they restrict the buy-in to 50xBB, which I think is ridiculous. I do play in a regular 1/2NL game, but they cap the buy-in at 300, which I think is much more reasonable. Do you sit in this game so that you can run over the shortstacks if you build a 3-400+ stack? Otherwise there doesn't seem to be much of a point in playing.

Absolutely push all in... which I did and he folded.

Just wanted to make sure we were all on the same page

Ice, I think part of the point about calling the raise preflop is that there are bad players who will vastly underbet the pot, like the preflop raiser did in this case, allowing you to draw to your straight or flush. Also, other than 2-pair or the straight+flush draw you can flop, you can also get a good flop by flopping a pair and a draw, such as [7c][2c], or [8c][7d]. With suited connectors there are so many different types of flops that you can like so I think it's worth it, especially if your opponent is willing to let you in post-flop cheaply.

I agree with MG.

I will sometimes call a raise with a suited connector against an aggressive opponent with at least 19:1 implied odds (and position) because you can expect (as we all know), mathematically to hit the flop extremely hard (for a made hand of 2 pair or better) about 5% of the time and get a decent draw a small proportion of the other times.

I am reluctant to raise with a suited connector in position because I will probably win a small pot if they miss the flop and I follow up with a bet and they fold, or I may lose a bigger pot if they hit the flop hard and I get check-raised, or check-called and trapped.

Because this type of hand hits the flop so infrequently, I thought the idea with suited connectors was to be a bit 'Judo', i.e. use the aggressor's force against them. You want them to be the raiser so they keep betting at you with an overpair or AK on an innocuous board (or even better for them to hit a set and give you a cheap draw by slowplaying it, like MG says).

In my mind it's much the same as playing a small pocket pair for a set. You wouldn't raise 55 in a ring game, would you? Even though statistically they have a much better chance of connecting with the flop hard..

Just my 2p.

No I wouldnt raise 55, but when I raise a suited connector and I do hit the flop, they never see it coming because they assume I have a high pair. SO I can win the pot when I miss the flop but they miss it also, or I can win a monster pot when I hit 2 pair, trips, a straight and to a lesser extent a flush.

But using that logic you'd be better raising with any pair.

ir makes a set around 11% of the time.

A suited connector makes two pair or better around 5% of the time.

If you raised 55 they'd never see that coming either. It's certainly deceptive.

And there's more of a chance of it happening! And all your logic regarding winning the pot when you miss and winning a monster when you do still applies to this situation.

The only thing a suited connector has over the 55 is the drawing potential, but I'd rather take that extra 6% chance for made hand on the flop any day.