Played a $5 SNG last night. Blinds are 15/30, I have about 1200, SB has about 550. The only thing I observed from him is that he makes a lot of small bets - the only hand he showed was when he stayed in a 4-way pot with a double paired board; he only showed A high. So I'm not too impressed so far.
I have in MP; I open-raise to 125. Only SB calls without hesitation. Flop is . To my surprise, he bets out 100.
I think a while. What can he have? A flush draw is unlikely, since I hold the . Something in the range of TT - QQ is possible. If he has a set then I'm drawing dead.
How likely are these? As I said, flush draw not very likely; would he call with KQs? A set of 9's is possible, but statistically unlikely; also, why would he bet out 100 if he can expect me to be aggressive on the flop? Almost everyone would check-raise or slowplay a set here. Then: an overpair? With KK or AA he would probably have reraised before the flop. Also, he could check-raise me or make a big bet right away. If he has, say, JJ, why would he make such a bet? Either he puts me on a higher overpair or he puts me on AK, possibly with a flush draw. In neither case I see the point of a $100 bet in a $300 pot. (If there is a point, please let me know.)
I somehow got convinced that he most likely had overcards or a medium high pair and was testing the waters. And I got convinced that if I put him all-in, he could only call with a set or a pair of aces and that he would not call with a pair of jacks.
So, I put him all-in, and he called instantaneously. He had A9 for TPTK, and took the pot.

Did I overestimate my chances here? Was I wrong to assume that he would fold most of the time? I would not dream of calling and risking the tournament without a set (or a pair of aces, but then I would have reraised preflop). And finally, did I somehow give away that I had AK? A preflop raise of 4X the BB is not that large, is it? He either thinks I have overcards or a high pair. If he calls with TPTK he must be pretty convinced I don't have the pair...

Pieter

My friend:

You are greatly overestimating the capacity of players at the $5 SNG level to fold. Preflop, you will see people calling that kind of raise with JTs, Axs, KTs, strange hands like that. On that flop, I would expect most players at $5 SNGs with 9x to call your all in raise. It's sad but true.

I am not an expert by any means, but I have been playing the lower table no limit SNG's for some time. I agree, that a decent player would not call an all in unless he had a top pair, or a set. The problem is, at that limit you are hard pressed to find a decent player. I don't want to bash your play, but I would like to make a suggestion. Since it is obvious by your post that you have some idea of what your doing, you are probably better than most people that play at this limit. The key at this limit is to be PATIENT!!! The morons that call with crap like that will bust themselves out early in the game. AKos is a decent hand but with a flop like that it is a dangerous play early in the game, especially post flop and you haven't paired up. When I first started playing sng's I would make similar plays only to get beat by crap. Iceman then gave me the same advise as I gave you. On the lower limit sng's I am in the money about 75% of the time. I start off a sng playing real tight and as the table thins out I become more aggresive. This is just my thought and this style has worked real well for me. This week ,for example, I played 2 sng's with a win and a second place. GL Hope this will help you out.

daneo --

Just wanted to point out that a 75% ITM is unsustainable at *any* limit offered anywhere online, even against very weak competition. 50% is more within the realm of reasonability.

He started with 500. He called your raise of 125. He then led out for 100. The pot is about 400 and he has only 325 left. Hes going to call that all in every time and would be correct to do so. You have no folding equity agaisnt a short stack in that spot. Just fold to his bet and move on.

Thanks for the responses. I realize that some people will call with anything, even if they risk their tournament with it, but I'm not always certain how to translate that fact into the right strategy.

What would you have done in my position? Fold to the flop bet? I really dislike just giving up on my AK on the flop, especially heads-up. Would you call and check/fold the turn if unimproved? I would be afraid that your better opponents then observe that you go into "weak-tight-mode" if you don't hit the flop and then start putting you to the test every hand you're in. Also, how do you generally interpret it when, instead of waiting for you to continue your pf aggression, your opponent makes a $100 bet into a $300 pot?

Pieter

Most of your decisions in a tournament or SNG or dependant upon the stack sizes involved. This guy was so shotstacked that you werent going to get him to fold, so you wouldve been better off just folding to his bet. If you both had big stacks it would be a whole different ball game.
He should've never called your raise preflop, but once he did, theres not much better of a flop for him to hope for so he bet hoping you would raise and he could double up.

In that particular spot, your AK was not worth continuing with.

I agree with what everyone said.

One thing that I wanted to point out that may be a flaw in your thinking is that you said you would never dream of risking your tourney life without a set or Aces. However, you put half your chips in the line yourself without even a pair. The SB isn't gonna fold there. Why? Because he's pot committed. If he checked, you can expect him to fold. But with him having called a PF raise and then betting, you can be sure that he will call you. People rarely make that bet without anything. They usually at least have something that they want to protect. I would have put him on a medium pocket pair, as that flop is a very good one for 6s-8s. Fold and pick a better spot to bluff.