Yeah, the maths wasn't very clear ... I got stuck between showing loads of calculations and making the post unreadable, or leaving them out and making it incomprehensible
Plus I was also suffering from the noodle-brain syndrome...
Anyway, I take your point, and your analysis is quite clear and persuasive. Nonetheless...
(1) I ignored the flopped two pair and trips case, since if you hit all your cards, the chance of getting called on the flop is low! So I suspect those don't effect EV when called too much. This puts the straight potential's importance back up again...
(2) Your points about being paired on the flop are fine, but it seems to me that there are all sorts of nasty traps: hands with aces are more likely to call a pre-flop raise, so flopping an A is not great ... if you don't flop an A, bet and get called, and an A turns, you're either in real trouble (he's hit two pair) or you'll get no action anyway, etc.
The real benefit of hitting a pair might be that it's one less card for your opponent to have hit, and that benefit is significantly reduced if it's an ace.
It's all a bit complicated to call, really.
As an aside, while researching these posts, I discovered I have a truly dreadful Axs win rate (I limp with it in M/LP, and had thought all was well for some reason), so I'm either going to start raising with them or folding them!
I'll let you know how it turns out....
I still feel quite strongly that raising with pocket pairs for deception is wrong though
