I'm finding it very hard to get up to a decent win rate on Paradise, for some reason ... here were two tough hands from this evening's attempt to improve matters:

(1) UTG and EP limp. I complete from the SB with , and the blind checks.

The flop comes , with 4 players and $8 in the pot. I bet out $6 with two pair, BB folds, UTG folds and EP raises to $12.

This hand was interesting mainly because EP appeared to be quite strong. He seemed to be a regular, and the people who knew him clearly though he was good. My notes on him read "(over?) tight aggressive (weak?). Bets decent amounts. He did bluff then show it recently". After the event, poker tracker classified him as "sLA-A" (25% VPIP, 4.5% PFR)

I have $250 and EP has $200.

First decision: what do you do in the face of this raise? I re-raised to $35 and he called.

The turn comes ( ) with 2 players and $74 in the pot. I bet out $80 and he calls. Surely he's too good to call a pot sized bet on the turn with just a draw?! I was starting to think set of 5s here...

The river comes ( ) ($228) completing the backdoor flush and the T8 straight draw. I check, he pushes for his last $84.

What do you do here? What about on earlier streets?

(2) I raise one EP limper to $8 from MP with . The cut-off calls along with the limper.

The flop comes with 3 players and $27 in the pot. EP limp-caller bets out $10, I call, and the CO folds.

I have no information on EP, who has been sitting out a while, except that she has $340 to my $200. Not sure what to do here ... betting smallish into the pre-flop raiser is a classic set manoeuvre, but she could also be betting a draw or AQ.

The turn comes ( ) with two players and $47 in the pot. EP bets $30. Presumably I should fold here, right? 'Cos if I call, I might as well have raised $40 or so on the flop and found out where I really was... I call.

The river is ( ) with two players and $107 in the pot. She bets $10 which is small enough for a gloomy call (anyone steal raise here in the face of the weak bet?!).

I've been experimenting with ways to not get all in on the flop with big overpairs, but this one didn't go quite as planned... comments? Does everyone raise the flop, then check-fold if called?

Hand #1..I dont understand your notes so I'll ignore them. If I knew what they meant it might change my opinion. You have to call the river bet. You are pot committed and when you checked the river you have to call because hes going to bet no matter what he has. He could easily have AJ or a set, but he shouldve put you all in at the turn with a set.

Hand #2. I think she has KQ. Looks to me like she didnt like the ace at all. Ive been really struggling with big pairs also after being beaten by sets over and over, but in this case shes betting based on what you are doing. She lead into you and you just called. She only led $10 into a $27 pot. She bet the turn and you called. The ace hit and she got scared. I think that SHE thinks you have AK and she just got rivered.
Theres no way you can fold the turn. Like I said she only reacting to the info youre giving her. If you had raised the flop, and then she still bet into you at the turn, then a fold might be ok, but in this case theres no way you can fold there.

Thanks for the response, very useful as always ...

Hand #1

Notes just meant to say that he was tight aggressive, but possibly a bit weak tight (ie bluffable!). He himself had made a big bluff earlier (vs one of his mates), and then shown his cards after his friend had folded.

I folded to his river bet. I think you're right that I should call ... I didn't stop to think about how big the pot had become ...

I just couldn't put him on AJ/KJ with the flop and turn calls (except AJd or KJd, which beat me), so it's 55, 99, T8, AJd, KJd, QTh, or QTd. Or I suppose possibly A9h, 67h or 67d, didn't think of those at the table. Seems to me I'm losing to enough of those to make a 4:1 fold correct? (Good point about putting me in on the turn with a set, though - I might have called if that had occurred to me).

To turn it round, with what hands would you call a reraise on the flop and an $80 bet on the turn?

There was a fair bit of discussion about the hand at the table afterwards. His mates all insisted he'd bluffed me. A fair bit after we'd stopped discussing it, he said he had "J7s", which seems implausible (but would presumably mean diamonds)

Hand #2

I called and she showed J9o for the turned straight. D'oh! Maybe I'll go back to raising big on the flop!

Trying to figure out exactly what your opponent would call your re-raise and a pot bet on the turn was the way I went about looking at the hand. I honestly could only think Ad-Jd. I agree with Iceman that he would have put you all in on the turn with a set because you were both so commited to the pot at this point. If he called on that on a draw you'll just have to pay him off.

On the second hand you certainly CAN NOT fold the turn to her bet! Even if some people weak lead with sets you can't assume that she has one. You really should have raised her on the flop anyways because sometimes people bet to try and give themselves odds to call too.

I am also confused on opponent's play in hand 1. If he has a set there is no way he isn't going all-in on the turn provided that he thinks he's winning (which he must think if he calls), since he only has $84 left and the pot is already much bigger than that. He could have either [Th] or [8h] for the monster draw, or [Jd] for the TPTK and turned nut flush. My thinking, though, is that he would have dropped AJd for the re-raise on the flop and that he would have dropped the two monster draws to the overbet on the turn. Very confusing...since you say he is a good player. I guess he had the [8h] for the rivered straight after making a poor turn call, but we will never know.

In hand 2, I don't like your flop play one bit. You have to raise this bet a substantial amount. Other than the obvious reason of the flop containing lots of draws, you need to get more info about the bettor. If you smooth-call, you are going to have to deal with another bet on the turn where you are very unlikely to get any help. In addition, you let CO in for real cheap if he has any sort of draw at all, even a gutshot. But being that you just called, I think you have to call the turn. She could very well be putting you on just AK. River bet is a no-brainer call, giving the absurdly small size of it.

Thanks for all the replies ... a couple of follow up questions on hand 2 ... (I have no information about her remember, so even GT+ can't help me )

(1) Say I raise to $40 (more?) on the flop and she calls. The pot is now about $100. The turn comes 8 as before, and she bets out $X. (I have $150 left at this point)

How big does X have to be before you fold? If you call/raise, what's the plan for the river?

(2) Say I raise to to $40 (or whatever), and she moves in for the rest of my $150. This is a fold, right? With $200 stacks in Paradise, which is full of weak-tight-nut-peddling puddings (slightly overstated for dramatic effect)? Or am I just being weak tight myself?

In hand 1 ... having read everyone's responses, it seems to me that if I think there's a reasonable chance he plays a set like that it's a fold, otherwise it's a crying call with 1/3 chance of being ahead, and odds of 3.75:1?

Most people think he wouldn't play a set like that, kennyg thinks he would, it felt like a set to me at the time, now I'm not so sure...

Following excession's post, I determined from PT that his PFAR is 2.4 on the flop and 4.0 on the turn - which I guess is some evidence that he was drawing?

Kennyg, if the river blanked off, what would you have done?

[EDIT] Incidentally, if he did have the flush and straight draw, his cold call on the turn is OK I think (someone suggested it was poor) - he has 13-15 outs, so pot odds for the call, and either he'll be able to bluff me with 7 more (diamonds if he has hearts etc), if I'm tight; or he'll get paid off on many/all of his outs if I'm loose. The fact that there's either implied odds or bluffing equity seems to turn a = EV call into a positive one (and moving all in is -EV I think, provided I always call).

Kenny, I don't see how a set (especially a low one) in hand 1 is powerful enough to cold call on the turn with a gazillion draws out there and the pot already so big and she not having all that much money left. Would anyone fold to a $84 raise after betting $80 into a pot of $74? Highly doubtful.

Smokin' Al, the pot odds are NOT ok for a call on the turn. A straight and flush draw is a coinflip on the *flop*, it is worse on the turn with only 1 card to come. If he figures to take the rest of your stack when he makes it on the river then I guess the implied odds make it a reasonable call, but I think it is pretty thin.

Bob - you've lost me ... There's a $70 pot, I'm betting $80 into it ... so he has ~2:1 for the call.

There are 13-15 clean outs to the flush/straight (some of them fill me up, of course he doesn't necessarily know this), and there are 44-46 cards unaccounted for (depending on how accurately he puts me on a hand).

So he's pretty close to having a 1 in 3 chance of making his hand on the river, ie 2:1 odds.

Or have I made a terrible mistake?

Nope, looks good to me. Guess I'll do more work on my gorilla math

Mad, I'm not saying his opponent is a good player. A good player would normally raise here. I'm just saying how my online experience with sets is. They will slow play sets like they are always golden, no matter what is out.

He has said in his notes the guy wasn't a calling station....and I couldn't see anyone that wasn't a calling station, call an $80 bet cold with a draw. That is an insanely huge bet. Whevnever I bet huge like that and get called....I'm done unless I hold top set or the guy is a maniac/monster calling station.