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You have to be able to fold this hand - Live Poker Forums

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You have to be able to fold this hand

Postby piersmajestyk » Wed Sep 14, 2005 1:38 pm

As I have said many time before, the line between being a losing or break even player and a winning limit player is razor thin. Ca. 8-10% of poker players are long term winners with the rest being at best break even or worse losers. When I was first starting out I was doing ok but when I gained the discipline to fold hands such as the following my win rate ballooned and I became a force to be dealt with. Not being conceited but I can count on one hand the number of online folks at this limit that would fold this hand but you have to be able to lay this down if you want to advance your game and become a winning player. There are certainly times that you would not fold this hand or even perhaps raise it depending on your opponent but against most opponents it should hit the muck. Making bold laydowns on the river is most of the time not justified but when you are facing putting in two more bets to get to the end of the hand that is a different story.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with [Jd], [Ac].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, Hero raises, 5 folds, BB calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (6.33 SB) [Ts], [Ad], [3h] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero raises, BB folds, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (5.16 BB) [7d] (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 raises, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 8.16 BB

Results in white below:
No showdown. UTG+2 wins 8.16 BB.
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Postby EscapePlan9 » Wed Sep 14, 2005 2:39 pm

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Postby piersmajestyk » Wed Sep 14, 2005 2:45 pm

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Postby Big_Leon » Wed Sep 14, 2005 4:24 pm

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Postby Tiburon » Wed Sep 14, 2005 4:46 pm

I'll answer this:

1) Your opponent called a raise from EP. In a 3/6 game or above (remembering the Gap Concept from Sklansky), you (IF YOU READ THE OPPONENT AS SOLID) can assume that he has some type of decent hand. Of course, if UTG+2 is a donkey, play on and win the pot. The Gap Concept, oversimplified, is that you need a better hand to call a raise with than you need to make a raise with.

2) On the flop, he led out, you raised, and he flat called. This means he either has a reasonable expectation to have the best hand, or he already does. Could he have a set here and have you drawing virtually dead to a runner-runner straight (or in the case of TT or 33, running jacks)? Could he have AK or AQ and have you drawing to 3 outs? On the turn, what appeared to be a blank, you bet and he raised. He just pulled a stop'n'go check-raise on you, and you need to be afraid of some of the above situations. His raise says that he has a solid hand, and even if he doesn't have a set, he doesn't want you around to draw for what he sees as a potential flush draw with 2 diamonds on the board. Could he even have A9 here?

3) Against a solid player, you're pretty sure you're beat here. You've been aggressive the whole time, and he just called a flop raise, and raised you a BB on the turn.

Bad things happen when you don't lay this down, but that being said, I'm not sure I'm at piers level of discipline or skill level to lay this down all the time to a solid player. I'd probably donk off some BB's here when he shows me his set or rivered boat. That's why I'm not a pro.
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Postby Xaston » Wed Sep 14, 2005 5:29 pm

I hate folding there (in the sense that I don't enjoy it, not in the sense that I think its a terrible play in terms of EV) thus, I play 6 max tables where folding there is oh so wrong a good chunk of the time.
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Postby Tiburon » Wed Sep 14, 2005 5:33 pm

I'll tell you about a live 3/6 hand I played at Tropicana. I pick up AJs in middle position and raise it up. I have a solid, TAGgy table image at this point. I get called in 2 places, one cold, one in front of me, so 3 of us see the flop of A-8-J rainbow. EP player bets, I raise, LP player flat calls and EP folds. Two the the turn, which falls an 8. I bet, he raises. I size him up, grab my cards, show him the AJ and tell him that I want to see his 8. He takes the pot and shows me 98s for the set. How many players can make that laydown?
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Postby Xaston » Wed Sep 14, 2005 5:38 pm

This is what I heard:

Brag, Brag, Brag, Brag. Brag :lol:
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Postby Tiburon » Wed Sep 14, 2005 5:41 pm

:twisted: Wise guy.
Last edited by Tiburon on Wed Sep 14, 2005 6:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby piersmajestyk » Wed Sep 14, 2005 6:08 pm

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Postby Tiburon » Wed Sep 14, 2005 6:28 pm

"...Every time you cold call, god kills a puppy."
--JJSCOTT2

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Postby Xaston » Wed Sep 14, 2005 6:48 pm

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Postby EscapePlan9 » Wed Sep 14, 2005 7:02 pm

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Postby Tiburon » Wed Sep 14, 2005 8:32 pm

"...Every time you cold call, god kills a puppy."
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