Well, had a horrible session last night and it's been playing on my mind
so I thought I'd post some hands for your digestion. I've been having a
terrific month, having run up close to $3k in just 18 hours of play, but
last night's 1.5hr session cost close me over $800, which is about the
worst single-session loss I can remember. The main problem was that I
played PLO8 200 on a couple of tables at Empire, where I've recently
been killing the 100 games (no 100s were open; that said, the 200s were
perfectly decent tables so I had no qualms at all about playing them; I
play up to $400 sometimes in PLO high, and regularly play the $200 NLO8
game at stars) - and whilst my $100 luck has been great recently, and
I've been mauling those tables, I seemed to hit a brick wall of good
hand over good hand and bad luck and dropped about 3 buyins in a game
where my variance is usually pretty low. Also played a few hands of PLO
at Crypto (lost a couple of hundred there, too) and so I'll include at
least one hand from that session.

Hand 1:
$200 PLO8 at Empire
I am in the SB with A24K (suited ace) and make a small raise when it
comes round to me. Two MP limpers (first one I have covered by a small
amount, second one and me both have just over the original $200) see a
flop of:
A[h] 8[h] K[s]
Looks like a great flop for me, I have top two which is realistically
very likely to be winning high, and the 2nd nut low draw. I bet out the
size of the pot, about $25, both players call.
Turn comes:
7[c]
Which gives me the second nut low to go with top two. At this point I
suppose it's quite likely given two players that one might have 23 for
the nut low, I feel my high is likely still good and there's no
guarantee that a 23 is out. So I bet out the size of the pot, pushing
$80 or so. First MP raises all-in, which is about another $85 on top.
Second MP calls, I have a $30 overlay on the second guy and assume I
can't be behind both ways to him (and could be scooping or 3/4ing him,
even if i'm losing some part to the all-in guy) so I push in the last
little bit.
River brings 6[c].

MP1 had KKxx for 2nd set and MP2 had 23 for the nut low. I get scooped
for the main and only get a tiny bit from the side pot. This is a
really tricky hand and I'm not sure what else I could've done to be
honest. The table was not especially tight and I had what seemed to be
a great hand on the turn. Can I really check-fold something that could
be scooping? I guess position was part of the issue, but even in
position I think I'd have lost my stack there, I'd have raised the flop
for sure and would have had a hard time believing I wasn't ahead at
least one way on the turn.

Hand 2
$200 PLO8 again, apologies for the inaccuracy but I'm trying to put
these hands in from memory.

I have $200-odd again, same table. I get dealt 2334ss in MP and limp.
The player next to act makes it a minimum raise, 4 see the flop, and I'm
looking for an ace obviously.

Flop comes A[s] 4[h] 8[s]

So I have the nut low and a crappy pair. SB checks, I check, preflop
raiser fires a pot-sized bet ($16 or so). SB calls. Now at this point
I'm either splitting low and getting 1/4ed (which 3 ways isn't a
complete disaster) or I'm up against two guys with highs, or one guy
with a high and one with a weaker low, and getting half. If I'm getting
1/4ed then I'm losing 1/4 of each bet, if I'm winning low then I'm
profitting 1/2 of each bet. That said, I'm probably more likely to be
splitting low. Anyway, I guess a 4 or a 5 could scoop for me, and it's
cheap so far, so I see a turn.

The turn card blanks high, offsuit T or something. SB checks, I check
again, PFR bets pot once more ($65-ish). SB folds. I'm now in a
position where I think I should probably fold; he must be winning for
high (probably has an ace given PFR) but by that same token I'm really
thinking I'm winning low here, and if I fold now I'm giving up half a
$65 pot. So, I make the (probably) foolish decision to continue,
rationalising that 4 and 5 may both be scooping cards for me and that
(for some reason) I'm pretty sure this loose player doesn't have a low
as well. Really, I think the chances of him holding A23 are much to
high for me to risk further money and I should just have given up here
without the third player in the pot.

River blanked again, I check-call another pot-sized bet, and he shows
2349 (yeah, great f'ing preflop raise a-hole) for the same low, same
pair with a damn 9 kicker. Betting all the way for half a pot or (given
the way I played it) probably getting 1/4ed - not a smart bit of play
from him I think, but I'd say I was hardly winning any IQ contests
myself. Ugh. Lows with no high really aren't so great in PLO8, I think
I should've lost quite a lot less here, although admittedly given the
dead money in the pot and a decent sized pot on the flop it's not the
worst play ever to call him down.

Hand 3:
$200 PLO8 at Empire

This was one I think I played fine again. Was really the straw that
broke the camels back and made me leave, I was already well down but to
get shafted by the board when I was licking my lips on the flop was
irritating.

I get A[h] 2[h] 7[h] K[s] in EP/MP with a full stack. I usually raise
A2xx suited and lots of other "reasonable" hands too, better fold equity
for a drive bluff on the flop, so I made it $7 to go. I get called by
the BB and by a guy in LP with position on me. BB has about $100 left,
other dude nearly has my $220 covered.

Flop comes Q[h] 3[h] 7[c]. Ding! That's the flop I was looking for.
I decide I want some callers (especially drawing to non-nut lows) so I
bet 2/3 pot when BB checks. The LP player raises the maximum, and BB
folds, so it's about another $80 or something to me, with a little shy
of $100 left in my stack. Now, I'm roughly evens in equity terms with
pretty much anything here (though a set plus A2 is beating me quite
well, I still have about 40% equity even against that, and I'm beating
any A2 plus pair hands, and somewhere round about evens against a bare
set, depending on other cards; I'm destroying anything else, pretty
much), and I know I'm not folding to any card on the turn, except an ace
or a 2 and that might be still bluffing me off the best hand, or at
least a 1/2 pot winner, and if this guy has something like AA with a
mediocre low, two pair, stuff like that (maybe even a low set) I might
have some fold equity so I just push. After a bad session, this was
just one of those times where I was resigned (ignoring all logic) to the
fact that the board would brick off high and I'd lose to some garbage.
These hands have been paying off great for me lately in 100PLO8 but
seems on the 200 tables Empire was, as usual, going to have the last
laugh on me.

Turn and river are both ugly, ugly Ts. He flips over QQ66, fair
enough, he was a slim favourite on the flop (though he scoops (i
believe) less than a third of the time). Still, calling QQ66 to a raise
preflop in PLO8. Ridiculous. He hit his perfect flop and was still
only about even money on the hand. I also think he played it
unimaginatively on the flop, but I guess with top set getting it all in
isn't so bad. I quit right after this hand and went to bed.

Hand 4:
More $200 PLO8 at Empire

OK, one I think I played really nicely (though if it hadn't worked I
would've looked a bit silly).

I get A258, no suits, in MP. UTG raises to make it $7 to see the flop,
folds to me, I call, one of the blinds also comes along. Blind is
short-ish, suggesting he might not be very good, UTG has me covered by a
lot and is a good player. My hand has a fair few cards that work
together so it's a no-brainer for $7. If it was something like A29J no
suits it's very hard for it to make a monster with such uncoordinated
cards so it's probably best to even think about folding this for one
raise in a shallow-stacked game. Good thing about hands with A2 plus
two other lows is that if the board hits low, you have a very good
chance of making two pair, a straight or a straight draw and thus can
3/4 or even scoop guys with bare A2s and AAs.

Anyhow, I digress. The flop brings:
J[d] 6[s] 7[c]

Open ender plus the nut low draw for me, a pretty good hand. EP opens
again for a pot-sized bet, I guess he has A2 as well, perhaps with
something for high. He's certainly got my high beat, regardless, so I
think calling is better than raising here, might get an extra call from
the BB. If I hit my straight I'll probably get his stack in anyhow. BB
folds, and so it's heads up to the turn.

Turn brings Q[h].

High bricks are the bane of most good O8 players IMO and often help the
fishies more than the decent players. I noticed last night on these
rather loose tables that almost every time I played a hand high bricks
were hitting turn and river. Ugh.

Anyhow, not much has changed, I can still make a massive 3/4 if I hit
my straight on the river and, who knows, there might be bluffing
opportunities too. At the time this seemed an easy call, though in
retrospect it's probably closer than I thought (if a non-straightening
low comes I'll probably have to call and, given his play, he likely has
A2 and I get quartered, unless a scabby pair gives me 3/4 or something).
Still, I called.

River came Q[d]. Typical. Another high brick.

This time he bet $35 into a $60 pot. For some reason this made me stop
and think before folding - for some reason it didn't scream strength
(full pot or a small raise maybe, but for some reason this
slightly-more-than-half-pot raise looked like he was wanting to put in a
strong bet without risking a full one). All along, given his betting,
surely he had some low-orientated stuff and/or AA, so it was hard to
imagine he had made a monster here. Perhaps even with AA he couldn't
stand a raise on a river that could easily have given me a skanky trips.
I decided that I'd make a medium-sized raise, another $50 or so, which
would flush out any A2-type hands that would beat me at show down, but
not risk too much in case he somehow had a boat. I was, of course,
risking him making a great call with a low pair or a decent showdown
with AA, but I felt that saving a few bucks in case he had a Q or KK or
other monster was worth it for the risk of letting him err on the side
of calling me. I felt pretty sure by this point he had an A2 and was
just trying to flush out a similar hand. Perhaps I could turn the play
back on him by raising.

Thankfully he folded, so I was right and won a nice little pot with
very little.

Hand 5:
$100 PLO, Crypto

This one was just annoying. Although they're usually not very good,
sometimes I can't stand these passive players in PLO (especially with
position on you) as they can be hard to read. I'm not sure I played
this hand that well, I feel up to the river it's OK but I maybe could've
done better there.

I get dealt A[h] 3[h] 4[d] 6[d] 3 off the button. I limp in preflop,
as do about another 4 or 5 players.

Flop comes A[d] T[h] 4[h], giving me top and bottom pair plus nut flush
draw. It's checked to me so I bet the pot, only the button calls, who
has me covered (I started with $85-odd; Crypto won't let you rebuy until
you hit 80).

Turn brings a 6[c], giving me three pair to go with my flush draw.
He's shown no strength, though it's hard to put him on a hand. I am
slightly worried about a set or maybe AT but I figure he'll raise those
after the blank turn and I can either get away or make a value call. I
bet pot, he calls once more.

River comes 3[d], giving me my fourth pair but no flush. I decide I'm
probably ahead here against some sort of draw, but I don't want to call
a big bet. So I lead out as I would if milking a big hand like AA, and
bet $10 into the $50-odd pot. Probably not a big enough bet here, I
think in retrospect. I wasn't sure if I was going to call or pass if he
raised. Well, raise he did, to put me all in, I think about another $55
to call. There's about $125 in the pot, and another $55 for me to call
it. I only need to be ahead 30% of the time or so and it's +EV to do
so, though I can't help but feel I'm getting played here. This guy was
not a great player from what I've seen, probably relatively average,
hadn't seen him do anything particularly odd during the evening.

My feeling was that his likely hands on the flop the way he played it
were AT, A4 or perhaps even a low set (i've seen both hands played very
passively, even on drawing boards), or the alternative was a drawing
hand, maybe QJK for the broadway wrap, perhaps with some non-nut flush
feature in there. If he held AT or low set, I'd figure him not to be
raising here because I'll only likely call with a better hand or
similar; with a dangerous-looking board, most players are fairly passive
here and just take the cheap showdown (and this guy didn't strike me as
being a wierd LAG who overbets average hands). The way the night was
going, I guess it wasn't out of the question he held 52 and had made a
horrible running straight, but the most likely drawing hand (given a
cold call on the flop, with few low cards out) seemed a high-orientated
one. I guess 235 was possible, which I hadn't realised at the time.

Anyhow, the main possibilities seem to be a decent made hand, AT or
small set, which I thought he'd more likely call than raise. A busted
draw that's on a total bluff, like JQK with a flush draw, or (what I
hadn't considered, but did fear slightly) some scabby low cards that've
made a spawny straight.

I called and he showed AT52, having backed into the straight. He WAS
ahead on the flop and turn too, but I still can't imagine how people
play so passively with a vulnerable hand; if he's going to play it
(which I don't think I would, unless I had a very good read on the
better) surely he must do something other than cold call on the flop...
Anyhow, I think I should've bet maybe $15-20 on the river, though that
would've made getting away from the hand tougher, and I probably
should've folded on the end, though again, I'm not so sure - he doesn't
have to be bluffing very often for me to be +ev to call, but I do worry
that my hand doesn't really beat an awful lot at all here. Food for
thought anyhow.

Right, I won't be playing tonight (even though I'm desperate to get
back into it and claw some of those nasty losses back) but I will look
forward to any comments/ideas/abuse regarding these hands.

Monk
xxxxx

Let me preface this with the following. I have played literally 1000 (if that) hands of PLO8 in my life and am 100% positive you are better at it than me. PLO I consider myself to be of somewhat comparable competancy as you.


Hand 1:

I don't see how with two people calling a pot sized bet on the flop you can assume nobody has 23, or at the very least, 24 to chop (the low half) with you. Your high, I am saying is very very likely to be best, but terribly fragile. The following cards are very likely to eliminate your chances of taking high, 4 (which also kills your low), 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, T, and J. Oh yea, hearts are likely no good too.

Hand 2:

I think you know what you did wrong here. Keep in mind the 4 and 5 of spades are rather tainted, as well as the fact that it's fairly possible you'll lose to a bigger straight if a 5 falls. If either falls on the turn you still got a lot of dicey cards to dodge on the river. Your nut low has no backup. Fold this nonsense on the turn.

Hand 3:

Of course you gotta lose all your chips here buddy.

Hand 4:

I would at least consider making a strong raise on the flop. It wouldn't surprise me in the least that he has somethink like AA49 with a suit. If that's the case you've got the low locked up pretty nicely as well as a nice chunk of high equity, and lots of fold equity too. But you decide to just call which too is ok. When that card falls on the turn, what are you putting him on that can stand a big raise, that you don't still have a lot of equity against? I can't think of one. The way it played out, I think you are gonna get 3/4thed a decent chunk of time on non straight river lows, and only gonna 3/4 with the 9 or 4. I think you got yourself in a tricky spot that ended up working out well, but I think you coulda stolen this pot earlier and risked less.

Hand 5:

Out of curiousity, do you ever raise this pre flop? I like throwing in raises with hands like this, A LOT, especially after limpers, but certainly there's no harm in limping.

I think you gotta check and call on this turn. His hand reeks of AT to me. You said he's passive. How many passive players RAISE a river bet on a stone cold bluff? Especially on coordinated boards. I think you absolutely positively have to fold this to the river raise.

Hand 5 I might've got the hand slightly wrong (maybe it wasn't double suited) because I raise this 80-90% of the time too.

I like your line on hand 4; I am normally hyper-aggressive with hands like this, perhaps I was a little gun-shy here because of the beats I'd taken. However, I did put him on a hand that would likely call me so I was trying to some extent to control the pot size versus another decent stack. I think both lines have merit, I might start playing hands a bit like this on occasions, usually as I say I would probably try to raise the flop.

Hand 1 I just dunno - I mean, how would you suggest I play it? This is still one that, out of position, I just dunno what to do - I mean, I know I'm good for high 90% of the time on this flop and my low is looking good too, so I have to bet it, but can I REALLY check-fold a turn with the likely best high and a reasonable shot at low? I've scooped far too many of these to respect these guys enough to fold this, so maybe I just have to suck it up and take the hit this time. Thoughts anyone?

Yea I tried to avoid saying actually how to play it, as I really don't know how I'd go about it, I just tried to analyze it. If its heads up by all means blast it again, but with two players in I think you should check the turn and see what happens, then with a little more information, you can go ahead and check-fold, check-call, or check-raise.

Hand 1
In my opinion, drawing to solid two-way non-nut holdings is a very nuanced and high-variance (but potentially profitable) side of PLO8. I think that his hand demonstrates some of the key considerations for these types of hands. So, first, I like the flop bet -- you might take the pot down right then, and you definitely get some good information.

When they both call, however, I think you need to be looking for any excuse to dump your hand. The worst case scenario (which is what happened) is that you are beat both ways while holding weak redraws. If your low is good, you are almost definitely beat on the high and you have very weak couterfeit protection for the draw to the low. If your high is good but your low is not, then you have very weak redraws and will often not hold the winning hand by the river. Your high is strong on the flop, but I don't think you can expect it to stay that way to the river if two people come along.

As such, I would check-fold on the turn to anything other than a weak bet and a fold by the two other players. Calling a pot-sized bet that the other player folds to is a viable option, but I'm not really wanting to show down two pair for my stack.

As Xaston said, if this is HU, I would be much more comfortable driving the betting in an effort to get my opponent to fold -- a lot depends on your current table image and you're read on your opponent (i.e., can he make the big laydown?). You've got to be thinking that you're good one way. I might still be a bit gunshy on this hand due to being OOP and having a flush draw on the board to which my nut-low opponent might be freerolling with any two of the suit (whether he knows it or not). Regardless, if HU, this is where poker skills come into play. If three-way, I see it as a trap hand.

Hand 2

First, I am willing to call down to the river as long as 3 people are in the pot -- the downside (getting quartered in a three-way pot) is not bad enough to give up the potential for taking down a full half of the pot off of two highs.

When one opponent folds on the flop, though, I think that this hand is read dependent. This is where PTO and PAhud pay for themselves. If the player is a solid winner, I might be willing to let it go, as I am likely going to lose almost half of my stack. For near break-even players or losing players, I am OK with putting my whole stack in the middle. The fact is, you do have redraws to the straight and a set (and maybe a flush... you didn't say if you had that draw). This guy could have anything (AAxx, a flush redraw, etc.) with no low. If you get quartered by a non-winning player, I just think that that is part of the game. I think analyzing the stats ensures that you get quartered less often than you three-quarter.

Furthermore, several cards (2, 3, 5, if not more) give you the three-quarters, so...

I think you're beating yourself up too much here -- this is just part of the game.


Hand 3

I think that this is also a very nuanced hand. You feel like a genius when your hand hits (e.g., low flush card on the turn), but you feel like an idiot when you get brick-brick. Anyway, this is one way that I have played this hand that controls the potential losses and still maintains plenty of upside.

I would actually consider checking on the flop in an effort to see the turn cheaply. If the last player to act doesn't bet anything, your raise is unlikely to be called anyway. If he bets, you will be able to manage the size of the pot (assuming the BB doesn't reraise). You may even get some more dead money from the BB in the middle.

This may seem to be a weak way to play, but I think that you're hand is much more vulnerable than it seems. You have no counterfeit protection for your low, and (esp. if two players are in the pot) there is likely a draw to a boat with a not insignificant chance of hitting. All of your flush draws are clean on this board (i.e., they don't pair the board), but this is not always the case.

Anyway, once you see the turn card and see who is in the hand and what was bet, I think that you can make much better decisions on how to progress. On a side note, if you were last to act, I think that you have a lot more options open to you.

Intuitively, it seems like this way of betting leaves a lot of potential money on the table, but I am not so sure. BB may be on a draw and might bet if he hits on the turn. Also, if you get your flush or low, a check-raise might be able to get all of your opponent's money in the middle. This is read-dependent, but it is one possible play that I have used successfully. Another point is that if your opponents aren't willing to bet or call bets on later streets, you probably weren't going to make much money off this hand anyway.

[edited for punctuation and spelling]

Hand 4

Due to scoop (I wouldn't neessarily put the guy on the nut low) and 3/4 potential, I like the flop call and the turn call ain't all that bad. The river bluff reraise, though... I would only make this bet if I have a read on the guy that suggests that he'll make these bets AND lay down or show down junk. Again, PTO and PAhud pay off at these times.

These kinds of raises give you a nice, loose table image when you show down (win or lose), but they bleed money to nut-peddlers.

I am not sure that I agree with Xaston's suggestion to reraise on the flop -- it's unlikely to be called except by hands that are beating you. Furthermore, you are basically committing your whole stack to this hand. If you get called and then brick on the turn, you either have to fire out a continuation bet for most or all of the rest of your stack, or you might be put in by the LP player. Additionally, you have weak counterfeit protection for your low, so I see your hand as being too vulnerable to jam on the flop.

I realize that my style tends to lean towards lower variance. As such, I might be leaving some +EV on the table. That being said, I don't think that the aggregate value of that +EV is enough for me to justify the increased variance. The game does not seem tight enough for me to have to concern myself with the small stuff.

Hand 2 follow-up

I'm not sweatin' the counterfeit low... it will likely give me the high and/or won't make a difference in how the low plays out.


Hand 5

Keep in mind who this comment comes from, but...

I check-call or check-fold on the turn depending on what kind of pot/implied odds I get. I don't want to show down that 2pr, so I assume that I am only drawing to a flush or a boat (a boat that likely cannot drive the betting).


Summary

To some extent, I think that you had to see this coming. You were on a REALLY hot run, and you always have to give back some of that money. My one question to you is this:

You seem to do a really good job of optimizing your upside potential, but how much effort do you put into managing your downside potential?

Please do not take this as a pedantic question... we all certainly do both. I've been giving a lot of thought to managing the downside potential lately, and I think that there are lot of strategies for managing the pot size that are very nuanced but are also very much +EV. It is very possible that you have thought all of this through and are comfortable with how your style factors in the downside potential. Then again, maybe not. Hence the question. I am really interested in your thoughts (and those of others) on this topic.