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Second Set - Terrible Turn Card

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Second Set - Terrible Turn Card

Postby briachek » Wed Oct 05, 2005 12:31 pm

No read on the player. The all in guy is a moron though.

***** Hand History for Game 2828021241 *****
0/0 Omaha Game Table (PL) - Wed Oct 05 02:19:05 EDT 2005
Table Table 36722 (Real Money) -- Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: PrincessNUTS ( $24.15)
Seat 2: kblackshadow ( $92.15)
Seat 3: briachek4 ( $28.65)
Seat 4: gammmon ( $27.50)
Seat 5: DrGreen ( $4.40)
Seat 6: dymek5 ( $15.65)
Seat 7: omamaha ( $0.75)
Seat 8: Kimmie17 ( $25.55)
Seat 9: in_training7 ( $34.05)
Seat 10: MVPSPORTS2 ( $24.50)
gammmon posts small blind (0.10)
DrGreen posts big blind (0.25)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to briachek4 [ Jc, Jd, 7h, 4s ]
dymek5 calls (0.25)
omamaha raises (0.75) to 0.75
omamaha is all-In.
Kimmie17 calls (0.75)
in_training7 folds.
MVPSPORTS2 folds.
PrincessNUTS calls (0.75)
kblackshadow calls (0.75)
briachek4 calls (0.75)
gammmon folds.
DrGreen folds.
dymek5 calls (0.50)
Creating Main Pot with $4.65 with omamaha
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 6d, Kd, Jh ]
dymek5 checks.
Kimmie17 checks.
PrincessNUTS checks.
kblackshadow bets (4.65)
briachek4 raises (12) to 12
dymek5 folds.
Kimmie17 folds.
PrincessNUTS folds.
kblackshadow calls (7.35)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 9d ]
kblackshadow bets (27.45)
briachek4 folds.
** Dealing River ** : [ Qs ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: $4.65 | Side Pot 1: $50.25 | Rake: $1.40
Board: [ 6d Kd Jh 9d Qs ]
kblackshadow balance $102.20, bet $40.20, collected $50.25, net +$10.05 [ Kh 4h Qd 6s ] [ two pairs, kings and queens -- Kh,Kd,Qd,Qs,Jh ]
omamaha balance $4.65, bet $0.75, collected $4.65, net +$3.90 [ As 9c Td 5d ] [ a flush, king high -- Kd,Td,9d,6d,5d ]


I have about $15 left when he pushes. Can I possibly call that?
Brian [Js][9s]
Anyone who gets in a fair fight, has no tactical skills.
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Postby Kuso » Wed Oct 05, 2005 12:38 pm

great scarecard bluff on his part. did you have any notes on this guy (i hope you do now)?

is there a reason you didn't bet a full pot on the flop?

anyway, yes, i think this is tough to call unless you have a read that suggests he would make a play like this.
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Postby briachek » Wed Oct 05, 2005 12:43 pm

oh, i have notes on him now. To be honest, i think I was a little scared of KK and how coordinated the flop was. I was hoping to find out somewhat cheap how big his hand was.
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Wed Oct 05, 2005 2:14 pm

If he has the flush you nearly have odds to call, but not quite. Therefore, the decision is based on the likelihood he's bluffing a scare card and the probability he has KK. Given the way he played it, I think KK seems very unlikely (surely he'd not smooth call the flop then push on a horrible turn). So you really need there to be some chance he's bluffing a scare card and, say, has a busted straight draw. If you think this is a possibility it swings the odds marginally in your favour and allows a call. At 25PLO, given the average opponent, i'm not really sure how likely a naked bluff is here, so it's hard to say.

Without doing any sort of calculation, I reckon you need to have about a 15-20% likelihood that he's pushing on a bluff/semi-bluff and a minimal chance of him holding KK. I think against many opponents that is certainly a possibility, but either way it's a thin, thin value decision.
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