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If You Have An Out, You Have A Winner! - Live Poker Forums

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If You Have An Out, You Have A Winner!

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Postby MTPaid » Fri Sep 16, 2005 7:06 pm

I can't save tournament hands on Hollywood so I just quickly wrote down the % I saw on the screen. You're probably right on the numbers, but it's just the fact that the favorites went 0 and 4.

Onto tonight tournament. First playable hand.
[Js][Jh] on button the 1st round.
3 limpers ahead of me so instead of raising, I just limp because I either want a set and a lot of chips or I'll throw it away. JJ is easily beaten. 5 players in all and flop comes.
[9c][Jd][2h] with $110 in the pot.

BB bets $60, 2 callers and it gets to me. Here is where I make my BIG mistake. I only bet $200 into a $290 pot. 2 callers and 1 fold. Pot now has $770.

Turn: [Tc]
How could I not know that was coming? Could I have expected anything else? But it's checked to me. Again like an idiot, I only bet $400 instead of going all-in. Both call.

River: [Kc]
Now there is a 4 card straight and 3 card flush on board. Everybody checks it and I lose to [Jc][Qh]. Other player showed [Ks][Th]. I mistakenly gave them odds to call me down and catch their hands. At least I did for the person that already had top pair. Funny that the case Jack fell on the flop. Pretty sure they would have chased me down anyway so it actually felt better that I lost because of my own mistake oddly because that is something I have control over. Strange how this run has affected my thinking this way.

Oh and by the way there was 1 all-in pre-flop. My AQ (63%) vs 98(37%). 8 fell on turn.

Favorites now 0 Wins 5 Losses. What are the odds? Actually I think I will post this in the odds forum and ask.
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Postby MTPaid » Tue Sep 20, 2005 2:32 pm

Opened an account at Abolute Poker to get a piece of their 150% deposit bonus. I'm not that crazy about the software and it's not very easily compatible with PT (there is a way to use PT through e-mail hand histories, but I'm struggling with hit), but the promotions are better (you even get $10 if your Aces get cracked) and oh my God is it a pleasure to actually win some hands when you are actually a favorite. It's amazing! I have a pocket pair and when an OC flops, my opponent doesn't automatically have it. When 3 to a flush falls, I don't automatically lose. There isn't an Ace of every flop. I don't lose the hands where I dominate my opponent. I never knew poker could be like this. As a matter of fact, I checked down a hand or two when scare cards hit that I probably should have bet thinking "Here we go again.", but I actually won. I have since played a few more small tournaments at Hollywood with my remaining bankroll and watched gutshot after gutshot roll off on the river. I'll probably continue to play small tournies with the money I have left there, but that's it. If Absolute had better software, it would be my dream site.

Here are my numbers in 3 small $1/2 sessions at Absolute:

Earnings: $30.25 (Also cleared $10 in bonus money so far.)
Win Rate: $9/hour
BB Hour: 4.50
ROI: 9.17%

I only signed up to clear the bonus, but I may actually like poker again.

PS - I did have one small incident when I defended my big blind with [Ks][6s] against an EP raiser after the SB called as well. The remaining 3 Kings fell on the flop and he flamed me for about 20 minutes for calling an EP raise when I only had 3 outs. I'm still certain it was correct to see the flop with that hand in the BB.
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Postby EscapePlan9 » Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:29 pm

I generally don't like defending blinds with KXs and AXs since I'm likely dominated there, especially against an EP raiser.

Also, here SB is saying "my hand is good enough to battle with the EP raiser". The SB has to invest more than you and your hand certainly isn't anything wonderful. Dump it.
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Postby MTPaid » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:09 pm

Escape, I'll only defend in that situation if I get at least 1 other caller giving me at least 5 to 1odds and even then I have to have an extremely good flop.

So I keep complaining about suckouts on Hollywood, but then guess who becomes the suckout king? Yup, that's right. Me!

Played 4 tournaments since last post and I was hitting gutshots and moving in on flush draws, rivering top pair, and what not for 2 days straight. I love winning, but I did feel a little embarrassed about the hands I was catching.

1st Tourny - SNG. Tripled up early with pocket Aces. Then as the chip leader I called $200 on a gutshot when 2nd stack only bet 1/3 the pot. Of course I hit it and took almost all his chips. Finished 1st easily. +$39

2nd Tourny - $5 Easy Money Tuesday night. 76 people and I won the whole damn thing. +$70.50

3rd Tourny - $5 Easy Money Wed night. 56 people and I finished 8th. +$9.70

4th Tourny - $10+1 Down the Stretch. 32 people and I finished 3rd. Also won a raffled off shirt from Turf n Sport for playing. +$40.20

This is what's called a winning streak. Let's see how long I can keep it up.
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Postby EscapePlan9 » Wed Sep 21, 2005 11:05 pm

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Postby MTPaid » Thu Sep 22, 2005 2:53 pm

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Postby MTPaid » Fri Sep 23, 2005 8:10 pm

Had my string of final tables snapped last night when I went all-in with QQ. Small blind called 10x his blind with a medium sized stack with K7 offsuit. Hit his King on the flop. Also saw a brutal beat when UG+1 went all in w/ AA and was called by UTG who had limped with 89 offsuit. 88 on the flop. One of 3 times I saw AA cracked in that tourny. Finished 6th in a 70 person tourny tonight. Lost the following 3 hands back-to-back-to back at the final table at Underdog heaven.

66 vs. 22 both all-in preflop.
TT vs. 33 both all-in preflop.
AQ vs. JQ w/ 3QQ on flop. I checked, he went all-in, I called and running Kings made us split the pot.

Finally went out with 88 when I got called with AQ preflop. Q on the flop. Still clearing about $10 per night on the Absolute bonus.
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Postby MTPaid » Sun Sep 25, 2005 4:37 pm

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Postby MTPaid » Fri Sep 30, 2005 10:56 pm

In between all the poker and football, I haven't had any time to post. End of the month numbers for September looking fantastic. Very happy with the move to Absolute. Of course there is the occasional bad beat, but I still win the majority of hands I am supposed to win. Feeling very confident now. The tournaments at Hollywood are up and down and almost all based on luck. If I have it, I make the final table, which I did many times last week, but this week has been just the opposite. Getting knocked out on a lot of hands that I'm a huge favorite to win. It just takes 1 or 2 final tables to even that out though.

September #'s:
Earnings: $639.95
Win Rate: $7.03/hr
ROI: 23.82%
Sessions: 75
Time played: 91h 2m
MT Tournies: ITM 13 out of 37x (10 final tables)
SNG: ITM 5 out of 15 (1-1st, 2-2nd, 2-3rd)

Absolute #'s to Date: (Mostly double tabling at $1/2 limit)
Earnings: $176.75
Win Rate: $12.72/hr
BB/hr: 6.36
ROI: 12.02%
Sessions: 13
Time played: 13h 54m
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Postby MTPaid » Sat Oct 08, 2005 1:28 am

Here are the numbers for the current week.......

Earnings: $35.85
Win Rate: $1.91/hr
ROI: 4.83%
Sessions: 16
Time played: 18h 48m
MT Tournies: ITM 3 out of 10x (1 final table)
SNG: NONE

Absolute #'s this week:: (Mostly double tabling at $1/2 limit)
Earnings: $47.85
Win Rate: $9.22/hr
BB/hr: 3.61
ROI: 9.03%
Sessions: 5
Time played: 5h 17m

Hmmm....what else happened? Lost 7 out of 8 KK and AA on Hollywood. One to a straight flush, one to a runner-runner Royal Flush, but mostly to flopped trips after we were both all-in. Lost a big tournament tonight when I went all-in AKu with $900 left when blinds were $100/$200. Got called by medium stack with T5s in middle position. Not mad I lost it because AK is just 2 over-cards. Kinda pissed I lost to T5s though, but it's pretty much expected. Everytime I've moved all-in this week I have been ahead except for 2 occasions when I was short-stacked and went in w/ 77 and TT vs. higher pocket pairs, so I'm still making the right decisions, but I'm kinda left to the will of the poker Gods and the "RNG".

Had my 1st bad session on Absolute. Can't even really consider it bad. Went up very quickly, but lost it back and then a little bit more by the time I was done. I feel that anytime I cold-call a pre-flop raise I am making a mistake, but it's hard to throw away KQs on the button when the raise came from 1st in the pot from MP. Then I paid him off when he I hit the K on the flop. Costly semi-mistake. I may have stayed in a couple of hands too long, but I've seen many people on Absolute go to the river with nothing. I'm still in a state of shock that my middle and top pairs are good a lot of the times and that there can be flush and straight draws on the board that nobody has, but that's what internet poker can do to a person.

Another strange thing. Absolute has the $10 cracked Aces promotion. I have only had Aces cracked 1x on the site. Just once in 1500+ hands played. On Hollywood, they are cracked about half the time they are called (not counting pre-flop blind pickups). Coincidence?

The numbers overall for the week aren't horrible, but of course I'm looking for more. I haven't even included the $130 in bonuses from Absolute so far. Right now I'm looking for $200+ per week and somewhere in the area of $1,000 monthly.

May check-out PokerShare soon. Read some good things about the kick-backs at that site. Player lotteries and revenue sharing. Sounds good.
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Postby MTPaid » Sat Oct 08, 2005 2:35 pm

I couldn't sleep last night as there were 2 hands that I forgot to discuss that I could not get out of my head. They probably deserve discussion because both were hands where I made major post-flop mistakes. Here they are, from memory so not exact:

Blinds at $15/$30 and I have a normal sized stack of close to $2000. There is 1 gigantic stack of about $10,000 that just got moved to our table. I am in CO w/ KK. 5 limpers ahead of me and I raise $250 or about 2x the pot. 2 limpers actually call including the big stack. Flop comes 4KQ all different suits. There is about $900 in the pot when it is checked to me. I figure that any straight draw in the pot right now must be a gutshot because who would call that big a raise with JT? I only bet $250 because I want some action on my set. MISTAKE. First caller folds, but big stack calls. Turn is J. I should have learned from past experience that gutshots always hit on this site and people will call with AT. Big stack checks and I bet $750 now and he moves all-in. I curse, but I'm pot committed so I call and he turns over T9 of spades. I should have pushed him out on the flop, but I never put him on that hand. I feared only a slight possibility of ATs. I get very lucky as the board pairs on the river with a 4 and win the pot. I eventually cash in the tournament finishing 15th. Big stack said that I deserved the win because I had the better hand, but I knew I just can't slowplay sets on this site.

Next hand was a disaster post-flop for me and even though the AK hand in the previous post was the direct cause of my exit, this hand was was really the reason. Blinds at $75/$150 and I really haven't been able to do much. I get QTu on the button and am totally ready to dump it when the entire table limps in. This is worth a lot of money if I hit the flop right so I limp. Flop comes 2Q7 all different suits and the entire table checks to me. $900 in the pot so I bet pot. UTG+1 calls and I should know that I'm dead right there, but I got carried away with TP. Turn is K and he checks to me again. Strange play I thought and I check too. Last card is a 4 and he bets only $500. I call it and he turns over 22 for the set. Draw your own conclusions, but I know how I messed that one up. Too carried away with QT when it was checked to me.
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Postby MTPaid » Mon Oct 10, 2005 6:49 pm

Just a few notes about a $5 tournament I played today.

Played a total of 3 hands. 99 in MP raised 3x BB and was called in 3 places + blinds. Had to drop after the flop.

[As][Js] UTG. Raised 4x BB. Called by CO. Flop comes [Kh][Jh]x. I use the probe bet. $250 into a $450 pot. CO raises to $550 and I dump it. (Even though I love Harrington's book, probe bets are USELESS in small buy-in tournies. If you bet less than pot they are moving in on you no matter what they have every single time.)

Last hand and only 3rd played in the tournament. QQ in MP. UTG limps in for $100. I go all-in for my last $460. BB calls as does limper. Flop comes all low, red cards 9 high. Check, check. Turn 7 red. Check, bet $200, fold. Heads up and he turns over [Jc][8c]. Jackass pushed other guy off with J high. Did he really think I had less than J high? Turn is [Td]. Of course he knew better. I forgot where we were playing. Gutshot straight and I'm gone.

Also witnessed Aces get cracked 2x vs. 66 when a runner runner heart flush draw hit and vs 33 when both flopped a set and the river was a 3 for quads. I see something new on this site every day.

And how about this hand from 2 days ago in a tourny. [Ks][Qs] in CO and I raise 4x BB when folded to me. BB calls and I flop the flush. I bet the pot because I know this site too well and it gets called. Next card is red and we both check. I know he has the [As] cause that's the only way it could be heads up. River is red 4 and I bet half pot. He calls
and I win as he turns over [As][4c]. Even when you win its never easy.
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Postby MTPaid » Tue Oct 11, 2005 1:05 am

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Postby MTPaid » Wed Oct 12, 2005 12:56 am

Played in the $20+2 Midnight Oil again tonight. If you want to see an insane all-in fest you should stop buy sometimes. First 2 nights I didn't even win a hand. Tonight I was pushed off mediocre hands preflop for most of the 1st hour. After half my stack was blinded off I played my first and only hand.

Blinds $75/$150

UTG+2 bets $300
I go all in for $805
Player behind me goes all in for $850
UTG+2 calls.

UTG+2 [8d][8c]
Me [Ad][Qd]
Last player [Qh][Ks]

I have one coin-flip and domination on the other person.

[Jh][Jd][Qs]

Perfect flop. I'm counting the chips already.

[6h]

Triple up.

[8h]

Good-bye. 3x and I still have yet to win a hand in this damn tournament. Although the guy that called all-in's with K8o and K7o from middle position was the table chip leader.
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Postby MTPaid » Mon Oct 24, 2005 3:25 pm

Instead of posting numbers here I think I will occassionally post some poker thoughts. Since this is my personal bitch thread, today is a list of my Pet Peeves......

1- When somebody wants to trail Aces from EP it's their dime, but don't you dare complain about a bad beat when you limped in with the damn Aces in the first place.

2- Someone calls a bet with a hand that they have no business playing and hits some 3 outer and then the rest of the table congratulates them by saying things like "very nice hand". I know you should never scare the fish away and I usually keep silent at the tables, but it drives me nuts when other players tell them how well they played the hand even though this is probably a good thing for my future hands vs. this player.

More to come.
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