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Hand Analysis - Live Poker Forums

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Hand Analysis

Postby piersmajestyk » Wed Nov 16, 2005 1:45 pm

Here is a hand that I played today. I will hide the cards and see if you can evaluate what I and my opponent have and what player I am from the information given in the hand.

Perhaps afterward a discussion of my thoughts on how I played it.


PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: CO posts a blind of $2.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, UTGC 3-bets, 5 folds, SB caps, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTGC calls.

Flop: (14 SB) [8d], [Jh], [6s] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 calls, UTGC calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) [4s] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 raises, UTGC calls, SB calls.

River: (14.50 BB) [4c] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 bets, UTGC raises, SB folds, UTG+1 3-bets, UTGC caps, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 22.50 BB
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Postby The Golden 1 » Wed Nov 16, 2005 2:11 pm

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Postby Xaston » Wed Nov 16, 2005 2:34 pm

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Postby redhouse » Wed Nov 16, 2005 2:45 pm

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Postby ihategnomes » Wed Nov 16, 2005 2:57 pm

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Re: Hand Analysis

Postby EscapePlan9 » Wed Nov 16, 2005 3:10 pm

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Postby The Golden 1 » Wed Nov 16, 2005 3:36 pm

UTGC played it fine in my opinion if he did have JJ, he extracted the most money possible which is what this is really about. Putting the money in when you're ahead doesn't mean a whole lot unless maybe you plan on folding if an overcard hits the turn (and I'll be damned if I'm gonna fold there ever, my opponent would have to show me his overset to do it)
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Postby EscapePlan9 » Wed Nov 16, 2005 6:57 pm

Too many people here advocate slowplaying in large pots. They are not going to put you on precisely JJ when you raise the flop and turn. UTGC's play was far too fancy. A case of fancy play syndrome if I ever saw one. All he did was successfully lose out on bets.
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Postby ihategnomes » Wed Nov 16, 2005 7:46 pm

I totally agree about the slowplaying. I have seen a lot of it since comming to this forum.
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Postby piersmajestyk » Wed Nov 16, 2005 7:48 pm

Young grasshopper,

You look but do not see :lol: Most of you got the read right as I was last to act with JJ and the MP player had 88. The SB no doubt in my mind had AK.

This hand I flopped the nuts after it being capped off preflop with two others involved and I have position. The BB capper leads out on the flop and I certainly don't want to raise here but plan on letting him fire again on the turn and trapping both of them for two big bets. If I was to raise here and he indeed has the overpair he will likely raise and knock out the MP player on most of his holdings which I don't want because whatever both of them have they are drawing either very slim or dead.

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with [Js], [Jd]. CO posts a blind of $2.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, Hero 3-bets, 5 folds, SB caps, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

My kind of FLOP!!!!

Flop: (14 SB) [8d], [Jh], [6s] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) [4s] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 raises :shock: :lol: , Hero calls, SB calls.

The UTG+1 raise changed my plan up as now I knew almost certainly that he held a set of 8's. If he had an overpair he would have popped it up on the flop in all likelihood in an attempt to drive me out and protect his hand. If I raise here the EP better is almost always going to drop out unless he holds an overpair and can't lay it down or perhaps he will even three bet it if I just call. He will almost always call for another 1 bet in this spot BUT NOT two if he doesn't have an overpair so if I raise now I am likely to gain the same 1 bet that I would get by calling but I get the added bonus that if an A or K hits I may even get more from the EP guy if he holds AK and I still have my hand pretty much disguised here with the knowledge that I am going to extract at least two more and possibly 4 more bets from the UTG guy if the board cooperates because he is not going to be able to put me on JJJ here by just calling the turn.

River 4 (14.50 BB) (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 bets, UTGC raises, SB folds, UTG+1 3-bets, UTGC caps, UTG+1 calls.

If I 3 bet the turn and even if he caps it there and leads the river and I pop him again only the most foolish players are going to 3 bet so I am either going to get the same amount of bets from him or one less and I will likely lose the opportunity to get more from the SB if he catches an A or K on the river or just can't lay down the overpair.

Results in white below:
UTG+1 has 8h 8c (full house, eights full of fours).
Hero has Js Jd (full house, jacks full of fours).
Outcome: Hero wins 22.50 BB.


There are certainly times to start jamming it up on the flop with a powerhouse particularly when facing a multitude of opponents and a board that is more draw oriented but in this situation against two opponents and the action preflop there was no need to crank it up on the flop because in most cases I would lose one of the players most of the time, albeit if I knew he had flopped middle set then I would have been very heppy to start throwing in the bets on the flop but lacking that knowledge I wanted to give him a chance to catch a second best hand to extract some more from him if possible. Once I knew what he had I feel that I played the hand in the best possible way to get the most from it. If you consider making your opponents make calls and raises when they are in serious trouble instead of folding and calling a case of fancy play syndrome then I guess you'll just have to think that way but making your opponents make plays that are the most negative EV for them and +EV for you is what poker is all about 8-)
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Postby EscapePlan9 » Wed Nov 16, 2005 9:24 pm

You put him on a set of 8s, which is completely reasonable from his turn play. Raise it up. He will likely cap. You would have gained another BB there.

Raising the flop will certainly not stop anyone with an overpair from 3-betting you. And even AK is far more likely to call flop bets than turn bets. Raise and raise and raise it up! In fact, AK is unlikely to lead a turn unimproved. Finally, raising the flop makes the pot larger for later streets to encourage your opponents to continue with weak draws. In this specific case, you would have certainly been 3-bet by the lower set, and most likely overpairs would 3-bet as well.

To a keen observer, your call on the flop and turn should be suggesting STRONG hand.

SB with AK made a terrible play on the turn. He cannot possibly think after two smooth calls on the flop his a-high is best. There's no guarantee he will lead out the turn.

Your play did not make the most money possible in this hand thanks to your fancy playing. It was a friggin huge pot and you still think slowplaying is great.
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Postby piersmajestyk » Wed Nov 16, 2005 9:40 pm

Yes I think slow playing in instances like this is great. When you have the deck crippled for your opponents where they have little or no chance to out draw you and if you show agression they will fold before getting the max out of them. And as I said in my analysis I could certainly have 3 bet the turn but that would have almost always driven the SB out and his one bet. If the MP player decided to cap it and lead the turn I still only get him for 6 bets the majority of the time which is what I got him for playing it my way with the additional one bet I got from the SB and with a likelihood of getting more if he hit his A or K.
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Postby EscapePlan9 » Wed Nov 16, 2005 10:28 pm

Who cares if it drives the SB out? You'd have made up for it from the MP player. Plus, if SB has something like AK with a flush draw, he isn't folding. There's no reason to think SB is drawing dead here. Raise while they still are drawing.
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Postby piersmajestyk » Wed Nov 16, 2005 10:53 pm

I care because I got him for 1 extra Big Bet that I would not have gotten had I 3 bet on the turn and I got the same number of Big Bets or perhaps one more from the MP than I would have got with the 3 bet and I had the potential to get even more from the small blind if he paired up. i can't explain it any clearer. My last word on the subject.
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Postby redhouse » Thu Nov 17, 2005 12:14 am

I agree with piers on this one. EP9, you seem to value winning the pot quickly and driving people out over winning the most money when the pot gets big. I'm not sure I understand why thats desirable.
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