Hi Guys, here is a $100 PLO hand I played yesterday. The main question is about the river play, but suggestions for other streets are also welcome.

I'm in the SB with [Td][Tc][9d]. MP, who has $50 something in his stack, raises to $2. LP (who has more than a full stack) calls, I call, BB calls (BB is almost broke).

Flop: [Ts][9s].

I bet $6 into the $8 pot here. Normally, I'd bet full pot and dump to a raise, but the BB had $14 left, and I wanted to see whether he pushed or not, leaving the possibility of a reraise against a single caller open.

BB folds, MP calls, LP calls. Now unless MP has all bases covered, I don't think he would slowplay AA here, so I think my set of T's is good.

Turn: .
I bet $26 (full pot). Both call.

River: .
I bet $18. This is precisely what MP has left.
I thought long about what to bet here; I don't expect them to bluff when checked to, since it was too obvious they were on a draw and since it was a 3 way pot. However, if one of them has 2 pair, he might be tempted to look me up because the pot is over $100 now. A bigger bet is not going to get called unless someone hit the backdoor straight.

MP folds, LP pushes in?! It's $75 for me to call...

I had no clear read on this guy; never played with him before. He played pretty lag, but I hadn'd seen him bluff big yet.

What do you do? Results later.

Pieter

I can't see me folding on the river when the only thing that beats me is a badly played AA or a backdoor straight. He could have AAxx with spade and straight draw which someone may slowplay since he doesn't fear much. I think I expect to see that hand more than 24xx. I still don't think you can fold.

Easy call. I guess from the tone of the post you lost but there's no way you can lay down a $120+ pot to a 75 raise when the only thing that beats you (most likely) is a bizarre 24.

Result:
I did call, and won (he bluffed a missed flush). However, I didn't find this an easy call. Half of the reason why I called was disbelief and pot odds, and the other reason was metagame (I don't want my opponents to bully me on the river).

My opponent knows I have a made hand like a set. He knows the pot is big. He knows that I have to call most of the time due to pot odds. He knows that the hand he is representing is very unlikely. He knows that not many people at the $100 level are good enough to even think about laying a hand down there.
In short, we both know that based on cards and odds, a bluff has a low chance of succeeding, and, in fact, probably is -EV.

If everyone says easy call here, then he will know as well that I have an "easy call", and why would anyone make a bluff that only generates an easy call and not a tough decision for the opponent? I can only think that he was thinking from a different angle, and that he reasoned that I wouldn't put him on a bluff precisely because a bluff is unlikely to succeed in that place...

i understand the whole point that the board makes a bluff unlikely because no scare card hit but i think you are over analyzing this. you lose to 2 hands, 1 that backdoored into it and one hand that would/should have played it differently. If you fold that river because "he knows that i know that he knows that I know he wouldn't bluff" then you aren't thinking straight.

I think you're making the rather elementary mistake of assuming that everyone else thinks as deeply about the game as you do, ojingo! True enough, if it's me making that river raise, or brian, or someone else who knows what they're doing and who knows you, they've probably backed into the straight. Against a relatively unknown player you've got to assume there's a big chance he's seen a big pot and just decided to try to steal it, after your weak-looking bet. Some people just won't lay down a hand when there's a CHANCE they might be able to win the pot, and not many people at the 100 level demonstrate the level of intellectual clarity you displayed in your explanation of why it's not a good bluff.

$75 into a $120-odd pot you only need to be winning the hand a little more than 25% of the time to break even on the call. I'd estimate against the average 100plo player you're ahead over 50% of the time here. You really think the average 100plo player has 2-4 here 75% of the time?I still think it's an easy, easy call!