50NL at Party, playing to clear the november reload bonus. Dealt my favourite hand in LP, AAo. I have about $80 in my stack (I forget now)

One EP player doubles the blind. The guy to act before me adds another $2, making it $4 to go. I bump it up to $9 (could've raised a tiny bit more but I wanted the re-raiser in, and the first guy to fold, ideally). The EP folds and LP calls. I think he probably has something like AK or a medium-big pair. He has over $100 and I've not seen him do anything stupid or loose yet.

Flop comes JJ3. Looks OK for my aces. The pot is $20-odd. He bets just under the size of the pot. Find it hard to see him leading out so strong on a J, and I don't think he can have one after he raised and then called my re-raise (surely QQ or KK would be the one; I have him on QQ, perhaps TT; JJ is always possible but raising that flop? I think not..). I could raise now but if he's over pushing something like TT or QQ I want him to bet again, and if I raise now it'll have to be nearly all in, certainly will pot commit me (though not necessarily a bad thing if he calls).

The turn brings another 3, making th board JJ33. He bets $35 which practically puts me all in; I push in my last 10 or so chips in addition to making the call. I'm now basically certain he doesn't have a J, surely all the evidence points to a big pocket pair, maybe KK.

Anyways, upshot was, he had KJo and took the $160 pot. I had to look twice at the showdown because I was basically counting the money; I know this is party but I just didn't think for a second he'd play like that - a) re-raising then calling my raise preflop b) moving on his dream flop c) making another big raise when he's got the deck crippled on the turn, especially after I had read him for being pretty astute. I guess he caught me day dreaming here, or well, I just plain don't know. This hand had me completely and utterly vexed, and even though it's from last night I still don't quite understand what happened here. I guess the simplest explanation was that I'd misread him and he was a relative beginner who just happened to play fairly tightly and sensibly, but I was in a state of shock when he turned over that jack and still am now, somewhat. I do REALISE that on Party, you see all sorts, but it's been some time since I've got a hand so wrong in terms of reading my opponent. Here I was so sure I was good and then, well.... Anyways, given the (apparently off-the-mark) reads I made here, and your general knowledge of how people play at these tables, can anyone get away with this hand? I know losing with AA after the flop brings two jacks would normally be a sucker play, but here I just thought the situation (as I'd read it) seemed almost 99% that he had a pair in hand.

Monk
xxxx

Although his preflop play is dumb, I have to say that he outplayed you postflop. Let's think about it - what hands could you re-raise a re-raise with? Most likely AA, maybe KK or QQ. You probably have a solid tight-aggressive image, so he likely doesn't think you have AK. Anyway, once the flop hits him, his bet makes perfect sense. Why? Because he wants you to think he didn't flop trip jacks. If you have AA or Kk here, there is no way you are folding to a pot-sized bet; as a matter of fact, it makes you more comfortable because you wouldn't think someone would bet such a great flop so aggressively. In essence, you palyed your hand faceup the whole way and he read you for it. Not that anything was wrong with your play - it's hard to see that you are beat there - but he just pulled a clever move, and I would have been caught in the same trap, no doubt. One thing I thought you could have done is fold the turn; I know it's tough to put him on a J there, but clearly the Jack didn't scare him, and if he has QQ, you have to think that he would play it a bit more cautiously, being the solid player that you read him for. Even if he has KK, he would have to put the brakes on, and besides I am pretty sure he would have re-raised preflop with KK. The call is probably okay, but I think folding is a good option too.

Of course, maybe I am just overanalyzing the situation and he is a complete moron who just got lucky.

Every time I've encountered action on a high-paired board at Party, my overcards have been no good ... possibly that's a bit random and is clouding my judgement ...

If you ignore the odd pre-flop min re-raise, I think you're behind ~70% of the time that he has connected with this flop (JJ, QJ, KJ, or AJ vs AA/KK/QQ).

I don't buy the "can't have a jack as he led out" theory - you've reraised pre-flop, so are at least 50% likely to have AA, KK, QQ - if you've got AK he probably won't get any action anyway. If he's too unsophisticated to think about things like this, there's a fair chance he's just betting cos he has a nice hand and the pot is big.

Ciaffone says in his limit book that where later betting is inconsistent with earlier action, give more credence to the later betting ... especially on $50 tables, I'd think I'd fold and wait for a better spot (yuck!). But then I do know the results of your hand, and am desparate to appear cleverer than I am

Out of interest, when you call on the flop and he fires again on the turn, what do you think he's put you on? You're still not (quite) pot committed...