$25 PLO 9 handed

HERO is in SB with
PRE-FLOP:
2 limpers, MP raises to $1.35, BTN calls, Hero calls, BB folds, Limpers call

5 handed
FLOP:[3c] ($1.00)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG folds, MP bets $6.00, BTN folds, HERO raises to $19.50,
BB and MP action later...

Is this a good spot for the semi-bluff? MP was PF raiser so I put him on AA since the board only had one big card and if he had top set he wouldnt bet so much because their are few draws. BB might have checked looking for the c/r but ill take that chance.

Thoughts?

RESULTS:

"BB" folded -- it was actually a EP that was sitll in the hand i just got things mixed up when i typed it.

MP thought for most of the time bank then folded. Obviously he didnt have a set and since he thought about it I would assume he had an overpair (AAxx).


I didnt think about AA having two of my outs at the time. That is a good point Briachek.

I make the play assuming AA folds almost always (or they should). I would expect a call from a set inwhich case i have 8 or 12 outs. And by having these outs it helps create a more +EV situation because the times the play doesnt work (get 2 folds) I still win about 30-40% of the time.

Not bad at all, but you need to have a decent line on the aggressor (i.e. that he can fold now and again!) otherwise its not a good percentage play. Against AA it's amazing how much equity you have on seemingly mediocre flops. If he has AA and no other part of that board it wouldn't surprise me if you're better than 40% to be honest, and if you throw in fold equity it's a decent play.

However, at the 25s fold equity is a very rare commodity and, generally, nut-peddling gets the job done. Beware of over-complicating things.