Hi Guys, I figured that since Monk isn't whining a lot lately since he is on a good run, I'll do some of the whining around here.

I started this year with a little project of analysing my limit O8 play by playing a bunch of hands on the stars O8 6 max $2-$4 tables. After 2k hands or so, I'm starting to worry that I'm doing something fundamentally wrong. It could be that I'm not adapting properly to stars (on UB I win pretty easily at $2-$4, both SH and full ring), it could be that I'm running bad, it could be that I have a serious leak, I'm not sure. I'm pretty sure that I have a sound basic strategy and a bit of common poker sense, but either I need to adapt, or I am not using them in the right way.

So far I've been playing pretty tight preflop when it's 5- or 6-handed (VPIP 30%). My reasoning: most players at the table play horrible hands (some play 90% or more), and call everything to the river, so I have to show down a good hand. When it gets down to 4 or 3 I loosen up a bit.

True or False: my profit in these loose-passive games should come from playing quality hands dominating their weaker hands and from playing very strong draws and made hands aggressively?

However, in spite of playing relatively tight and only staying after the flop with good odds, I have a big problem at showdown, where I simply don't win enough to show a good profit. Most of my premium starting hands like AA2x, A23x, are losing hands. This may be because I play the flop fairly aggressively when I have a big draw (for example A23x on a 45Q flop with nutflush draw), which costs me a lot when I miss everything, or when I hit the turn but get counterfeited on the river.

Another possible leak are crying calls on the river. Especially shorthanded I'm often inclined to call with the second nuts if an unlikely draw hits, but so far I seem to be doing this too much, especially when the game is full of LAGs who will bluff a lot.

Supposedly, the variance of O8 is a lot less than that of limit holdem, but I'm consistently experiencing the opposite. Does this mean I'm playing too aggressively? That I'm taking too many hands past the flop?

Any suggestions are appreciated. If anyone would be willing to watch me play for a while or join me at the tables, that would be even better.

Thanks, Pieter

Hi Ojingo

It sounds to me like it might just be a bad run. I'd say the variance in O8 is similar to limit holdem (some would argue more so, especially comparing SHO8 to full-table LHE). You have to play big draws aggressively in O8 (e.g. nut low + nut flush draw) because you are always going to be +EV to do so. Against one opponent nut low draw + nut flush draw is a slight favourite over a bare nut set with no low, in a 3 or 4 way pot nut low draw plus a solid high draw (8 outs or so) is always going to be above neutral EV so you should be building large pots.

In loose passive games the major determinant of you winning is indeed playing stronger starting hands than your opponents, and being able to muck apparently strong but in reality garbage hands on the flop (like weak low draws with a pair, bottom 2 etc). I think if the game is one which almost always goes to showdown you should also consider raising a reasonable number of the hands you come in with, although playing SH you're probably doing that already.

If you would like me to help with analysing some hands or a session or whatever PM me and maybe we can figure something out. It's been a while since i've played a lot of limit O8 (i too used to kill the 3/6, 2/4 kill and occasionally 5/10 at UB) but it's one of my favourite games.

But overall I wouldn't worry - 2k hands is next to nothing and you're probably just having a bad run. 3 or 4 bad rivers over the space of 2k hands can turn a solid winning player into a losing one (say you lose four 15BB pots to bad rivers, that's a total of 60BB, or, over 2k hands, a downswing of 3BB/100, which is rather a lot!).