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when do you call this?

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when do you call this?

Postby Ojingo » Sun Feb 19, 2006 1:10 pm

$100 plo on UB. Opponent has $40, I cover.

I get a pretty [7c][8c][9s][Ts] in EP and limp in. One more limper, and flop comes

[6h][8h][Jd],

giving me a big wrap but of the wrong color. BB leads for $5, I call, rest fold. I thought about raising here, but there was only one player left to act, and he hardly had any money so would have called with a flush draw anyway. Also, I don't want to see a board pair on the turn. If he has a set then has an easy push and I think I am better off leaving some options open. Agree/disagree?

Turn: [Kd]. Now all my red outs are tainted. Opponent bets $15. If I only count clean outs this is a clear fold. Of course it may very well be that he doesn't have a flush draw, but I can't be sure of a T or Q anymore.

However, you could justify a call here with the idea of representing the flush when it hits. If you call, the pot will be $45, and he will have $20 left.
I folded here, since I thought this was not deep enough.

How many outs do you count? How deep should the money be in order for you to call?
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Postby Kuso » Sun Feb 19, 2006 1:40 pm

i push on the turn.

i think you've got some MUtBS. you've got lots of clean outs, you just don't know what they are. HU, i think you can only realistically be worried about him having two features (e.g., set and a flush) at the most.

it seems like you're worried about both flushes, a higher straight, and the board pairing, and i think this is a bit too paranoid. you've got a huge wrap on an unpaired non-flush board HU with one card to come... get the money in the middle.
wwcrd?

"that basically sums up poker for me - 12" needle in the testicle." <nutkick> mvp
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Postby Ojingo » Sun Feb 19, 2006 1:53 pm

If I wanted to push here then I think it is much better to do that on the flop. If I want to continue playing on the turn I think a flat call is in order. He's not going to fold a set there (which is what I think he has).

If you call the turn then at least on the river you saved money if the board pairs. If you miss your draw but a flush hits, you may win the pot by bluffing, which you can't do if you're allin. The only question is if you have enough FE on the river when the flush hits. He might very well push in his last $20 if a diamond hits.

I'm just thinking that pushing gives up a lot of control in the hand, but maybe the fold on the turn was too tight...
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Postby Kuso » Sun Feb 19, 2006 2:02 pm

i see your point.... but given that villain has a short stack, you have very little fold equity. that being said, i wouldn't be surprised if you have a lot of equity in the pot. i think pushing would be in order if you had one of the flush draws.

you may even be ahead at the moment if he has a similar straight draw and no pair -- although i guess he has a set.

calling is definitely another option, but will he pay off if you hit?

ok... i'll change my mind. in order of preference:

call
push
fold
wwcrd?

"that basically sums up poker for me - 12" needle in the testicle." <nutkick> mvp
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