Tough situation here on a PLO8 $200 table this morning. I have a stack of $95 thanks to a bum catching a 2 outer about 12 hands ago. I have had much more than my share of great starting hands all session but have folded on the flop about 80 freakin % of the time.

I get A22J in LP. 2 limpers to me. Table has been pretty passive, not much pfr going on, so I decide to try and buy the button with an almost pot raise. Button calls, as does UTG. Both have me covered.

Flop comes 239 with 2 diamonds and a spade. I don't have diamonds (or spades). UTG checks to me. IIRC there was $18 in the pot, so I threw out a 2/3 pot $12 feeler. Unfortunately for me, both playas call. $54 in the pot.

Turn is a high spade, I think a Jack. What's your move here?

I was 99% sure I had the best hand and was looking at 2 draws here. No one with a higher set would not raise and try to scare off the flush and low draws (well, no one in their right mind I think). I'm guessing at least one has A4 and there has to be a diamond flush draw out there as well. Maybe even a spade flush draw now.

If there are 2 flush draws and a nut low draw I am looking at potentially 20+ outs that cost me 1/2 the pot or all of it. If I pot it then they would still have odds to call. If I just check I am giving them infinite odds, even worse. So what is the best play? Is this a case where a check/fold (assuming it gets jammed) is in order? Seems really weak to me, but my nuts are very fragile right now.

What I did and results in white below:
Well, I potted it and they both called. River was an offsuit 5 and I made a crying call for my last $12 or whatever to see A4 with 2 diamonds in UTGs hand.

Hmmm... any diamond bad, any spade maybe bad, certainly any 5, and there may be more straight draws around with some kind of low wrap.

While I don't like the PF raise, I do like your play on the turn. Your reasoning seems sound to me. I don't see much point in checking it if you (accurately, as it turns out) think you're ahead.

If this site was named Party Poker you will not get them to lay down a nake nut low draw. I check the brick turn.

As a rule of thumb, if I cant name a dream river card for my hand, it is time to go into conservative mode.

Another thing I do is to think of what I wouldn't lay down in that situation if I was facing a bet that I was going to make. If I have an A45 some sort of flush draw hand, I make that call. If I come up with a reasonable holding that I wouldn't lay down, I don't bet. If the play seems weak, remember that situation and setup for a check raise later.

Tom

Yeah, this one is gonna bug me for a while.

I don't normally raise, and when I do it's generally with a better hand than this one. I had not raised at all so far and besides wanting the button felt it wouldn't hurt the image to show at least a little pre flop aggression. You gotta try to disguise the AA2-AA3 raises once in a while.

I'm curious if there is a 'sklansky way' to figure out the optimal bet on a turn like this, where you know you aren't going to price anyone out, but want to increase your return the 40-50% of the time that they miss (that 40-50 number is totally off the top of my head). That of course assumes that they will fold to a river bet when they miss, and that you'll take high a certain percentage of the time when a low card hits that doesn't wheel or flush someone up.

Ok, it's 1am, I am not going to do this math now. Maybe tomorrow.

Isn't any non-diamond bigger than a 6 pretty decent here?

Well, here's the twodimes numbers on the 2 of us that showed down. Not sure at all what the 3rd guy had, which kinda sux.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1552895
pokenum -o8 jh 2c 2h ah - ks 4d 3c ad -- 2d 3d 9h
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing 3d 2d 9h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
2c Ah Jh 2h 220 500 312 8 0 96 48 0.456
Ks 3c Ad 4d 300 312 500 8 472 0 48 0.544

On the flop I was about where I thought I was.

Not sure how I screwed this up, I must have gotten a couple of hands confused because the 2nd flush draw didn't hit on the turn:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1552898
pokenum -o8 jh 2c 2h ah - ks 4d 3c ad -- 2d 3d 9h qc
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 40 enumerated boards containing Qc 3d 2d 9h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
2c Ah Jh 2h 21 30 10 0 0 0 0 0.637
Ks 3c Ad 4d 10 10 30 0 16 0 0 0.362

Turns out I was in much better shape than I posted, but for argument's sake, lets change to show 2 flush draws and add a 3rd opponent with the 2nd flush draw:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1552909
pokenum -o8 jh 2c 2h ah - ks 4d 3c ad - 7s as 8c kd -- 2d 3d 9s qs
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 36 enumerated boards containing Qs 9s 3d 2d
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
2c Ah Jh 2h 14 22 14 0 0 0 0 0.500
Ks 3c Ad 4d 8 8 28 0 14 0 0 0.333
As 7s 8c Kd 3 6 30 0 4 14 0 0.167

Does this seem right? Can I really have that much equity? I guess it's saying that half the deck flushes someone, but the other half is a win for me. In that case then pushing was the right move on the turn, no?

This was a good (but not great) turn card for you. Your decision should be obvious--pot the turn and set them all-in.

When you get involved a big pot like this one, your main consideration should be your equity vs. your opponent's range of hands. Get your money in when you have an equity edge. Don't sidetracked by other issues such as "they would still have odds to call" or "my hand is very fragile right now." Do you rate to have an equity edge versus your opponent's range of hands? I think you do here!

For auguments sake, let's say that instead you hold 99AK. That means you flopped top set on a board with 2 to a low and a flush draw. As you know, on the flop you're flipping a coin against someone with a low draw and a flush draw. The turn card will determine whose equity gets crushed. When a high offsuit card comes on the turn, your top set is now the favorite against the low/flush draws. Pot the turn and make them pay dearly to see a river.