Either I'm an idiot or well....you decide:
My opponent was a big stack that had overplayed some hands but was a good player. Only played good hands.
Stacks
Me - $236
Opponent - $350
$100 max buyin NL on Party. 1/2 blinds
Coming towards the end of a 4 hour session for me. I have
[Tc] and limp in middle position. The big stack raises to $10 from LP. I was gonna fold but then saw he had me covered and I decide I'd try and hit a monster to double my stack.
Two players
[Js][9c] pot: $23
Exactly the kind of flop I was looking for. I have the nut open ended draw with a backdoor Queen high flush draw. I check and await to see what the preflop raiser will do. He bets $15 in the $23 pot. I decide to cold-call. If I raise here he might stuff me out with a reraise with a high pocket pair. I wanted his stack not the flop money.
TURN pot $53
[Js][9c][Th]
I hit a pair of tens to go along with my openended draw. The board is now 4 to the straight missing the 8. My backdoor flush draw is gone. I check again. He fires out $30. I call. (WTF am I calling this for?)
RIVER pot $113
[Js][9c][Th][3h]
The river changes nothing. I have a pair of tens..nothing. I check expecting him to check and take it down. Instead he decides to fire out $55 into the $113. I stop and think...Does he think I have nothing here? I cold called him twice and yet he still fires out again. Does he have AK on a bluff? QK for a nut straight? QK doesnt seem likely at all to me. He's been so tight I just don't see him raising $10 with it preflop. My gut says he has QQ-AA or maybe JJ for trips...and still believes he is good.
I raise his $55 to $181. I decided that he cannot call this bet unless he holds QK. No other hand except a random 8 (which i was 100% sure he didn't have) can call this bet. Not a logical good player anyway....which he seemed to be.
I'll post the results later but just wanted some thoughts. Personally, looking back on it, it seems pretty stupid. I was positive $200 for the 4 hour session and was putting that all on the line for a bluff. Also add in the fact I'm on a bad run and haven't posted a good hearty profit in a couple of days and it just seems too risky of a river play.
I like my flop play but hate my call on the turn. My openended draw was pretty obvious on the turn so if I hit on the river....it's doubftul I could get any money from him, especially with me acting first. Hell, he might even have a queen as well so we would split. I should have folded the turn def, my implied odds had gone to crap and my draw wasn 't nearly as good as it was on the flop. I honestly don't know what I was thinking at that point in the hand. 4 hours is usually my limit for playing, so I'm thinking I must have just lost my edge at this point in the game.
Any Thoughts on this interesting hand? Don't worry, this kind of play is not something I do often, if ever....but I did think it would be great for analysis.
Results later.