So I flop the nuts but with 2 players going nuts in the hand I am pretty sure I am up against two other nut straights. I do have a redraw to a bigger straight but since I am pretty sure I am up against two other 45's I am drawing to 2 outs to improve, plus with 2 other players going nuts I have to be getting freerolled to a flush, should I fold this at some point??

Poker Stars
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
8 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is BB with
UTG calls $1, UTG+1 calls $1, MP1 calls $1, MP2 calls $1, CO calls $1, Button calls $1, SB folds, Hero checks.

Flop: ($7.5, 7 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets $4, 2 folds, CO raises to $10, Button folds, Hero calls $10, UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $34, CO raises all-in $103.5, Hero calls all-in $89, UTG+1 calls $73.5.

Turn: ($313.5, 1 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $304.5, Sidepot 1: $9)


River: ($313.5, 1 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $304.5, Sidepot 1: $9)


Results:
Final pot: $313.5

*** SHOW DOWN ***
Hallelujah: shows (a straight, Deuce to Six)
Dublgutshot: shows (a straight, Deuce to Six)
Hallelujah collected $4.50 from side pot
Dublgutshot collected $4.50 from side pot
Rhound50: shows (a flush, Ten high)
Rhound50 collected $301.50 from main pot

Yeah, I had a similar situation with a dead-end nut straight and got freerolled on the turn, where he made his flush and I lost my stack.

I would have bet it out, but the result is the same.

Anyhow, you have 2456 with two clubs. So you have runner-runner boating chances (which may not help if someone has straight with trips), runner-runner clubs, and the only 4 left in the deck to improve your straight. I think all of these are important, because your hand at least CAN improve to win the pot outright.

Let me at least attempt to do some kind of EV calculation here. Ok, I'll just assume that both of them have spades. So, there are 6 spades accounted for and 7 left in the deck. This obviously isn't the only situation where this kind of action can occur. You might have AA trying to fill up and/or a flush WITHOUT the made straight. But I think both of those would be rather bad plays.

You have $10 invested, and it costs you $79 more for a chance at a pot of about $200. So, you're really getting about 2.5:1

Now one of those players makes the nut flush 25% of the time (should be roughly accurate), and you lose $79 for a net of -$25.

If the pot is split, which will be about 70% of the time, you actually net only something like $4 (your 1/3 of the $10 already invested plus your share of the dead money). So, that's something like a net of $3.

I'm just going to call it 5% of the time (which seems roughly accurate--I guess one should run the actual hands through the Omaha calcuator here), that you win the whole thing, and net $195 (close enough anyway). So, that gives you a plus of only about $10.

If that's the scenario, I think you have to lay it down. Your redraw is too thin.

I think it becomes profitable, however, if you think at least ONE of them doesn't already have a made splitting hand, because then the most frequent result splits whatever that player put in the pot, and that's a sizeable amount--enough, I think, to compensate for the fact that the flush may take it away from you a fair percentage of the time.

Anyhow, it looks to me close to marginal but still probably a bad call. I also find it almost impossible to lay down the nuts even without a redraw, but I know it's a major leak. Fortunately, it doesn't come up that often.

Couldn't resist running these holdings through the Omaha odds calculator. You're actually a little better than I thought, although the spade hand is clearly the big winner here.

You win 8% of the time. Spades win 34% of the time (the 7 is also a great card for him). The 55 hand wins 1% of the time. And the pot is split 57% of the time.

My guess is that you need at least something like 4 true winning outs to make this call clearly profitable--and that's in a 3-way pot. You probably need a few more (maybe 6 if you assume your opponent has the flush freeroll?) to make an all-in call like this HU.

On the other hand, it's rather difficult to create this situation HU. If you have the nuts with even 4 outs plus runner-runner, I'm guessing it would be worth flat calling (given sufficient stack depth) to see if the turn hurts or helps you (such as giving your runner-runner an equal shot at it). Also, so many players semi-bluff that I think it's almost impossible to lay down the nuts immediately to a pot-sized re-raise even without any redraw.

Ok monk I fixed up the HH, the new converter really sucks. To add a little comedy to this hand, after the hand doublegutshot was bitching about about how running clubs was "total BS." He is the dumbass that reraised with the worst possible redraw.

This is one of those wierd spots where a non-nut hand (AA for top set) is well ahead of the bare nuts (the straight) in this three-handed spot - I wouldn't have any trouble with you getting in with top set here as you have 35-40% equity, most likely (depending on their hands).

Aisthesis is also right that if one of them is a REAL balloon and you're only up vs one nut straight, it's probably just about OK to get it all in (though it won't be hugely +EV). If there are several possible strong hands makeable (e.g. a straight but also a 2nd nut straight) I guess this might be more likely, but here there's only one straight possible. Maybe AA is not out of the question but to be honest if you're up vs one guy with the same straight and one guy with AA when one of them also holds the flush I think you're actually even worse off! Also, AA is less likely due to the preflop action I'd say.

As an aside, you should be aware that having a "boat draw" in these sorts of pots (with top set) is almost always good value in a three way pot because the boat can't be redrawn (i.e. a boat draw may give 35-40% equity here but a bare flush draw is likely to be only 30% or so, depending on other people's cards, because the flush can be killed by the board pairing). Also, a set plus a flush draw is a dominating favourite over a bare straight. If you hold AA plus a high-ish flush draw here you should do everything in your power to get it all in - if both draws are good you could have up to 65% equity in a 3-way pot, which is absolutely crushing (dollar for dollar, it's as good as getting in with an unbreakable nut heads up - if you put $200 into the heads up pot with 100% equity, you get $400 back, whereas if you put $200 into a three way pot with 65% equity, you also get nigh on $400!). That's one of the rare situations in omaha (set + flush draw vs straight) where the draws are a big favourite over a made hand, it's also about the only draw I'll raise and re-raise until I've got no chips left, though again I guess that's pretty much standard.

Low draw plus flush draw with a bit of something else (gutshot?) in PLO8 is analogous - again, you often have 60%+ equity against a bare NUT set on the flop, and even just with a bare nut flush draw plus nut low draw you're 55:45 fave over a set on the flop.

Wow, that was quite a lengthy digression

cool