Can this still be variance?? (Long rant)

[Ojingo]

Guys, I need some advice here. Since January I'm on a breakeven streak that I can't seem to break out of. Some bonuses aside, I have seen no growth of my bankroll whatsoever.

Some facts:

- Last year (my first year playing PLO) I made about 10k playing the $50 and the $100 tables. This is enough to conclude that I should be able to beat the games right?
- This year I'm playing the $50 and the $100 tables, and occasionally (when I feel up to it and when the game looks good) the $200 tables.
- I play 3 tables, and when I am playing on a $200 table then I'll close one table.
- My winrate (=breakeven rate) seems to be the same across all levels)
- This year I played about 200 hours (i.e. 600 table hours) which should be enough to eliminate swings.
- I still spend significant time on studying the game, analysing hands, running simulations etc. I'm confident that I understand at least the math behind the game. Even though I sure have to improve lots of aspects of my game, I still think that I have a decent understanding of the basics and that this should be enough to beat the games I play in.

I have some conflicting thoughts. Since it is not variance, I must have some kind of leaks. If a winning player makes say 20bb/100 hands, then one mistake per session is enough to become a breakeven player right? So, I'm inclined to think that I have a leak somewhere. On the other hand, I won consistently over the past year in those games, so I don't see why I couldn't repeat that this year. Are the games becoming tougher? Could it be that I've been playing with the same handle and strategy too long and that people get too good a read on me? I try to mix up my play every now and then in the presence of regulars who pay attention. Also, I know many winning players at these levels who probably don't play optimally, but still win, simply because they make a few mistakes less than their opponents.

I still believe that my overall game plan for those games is the right one (which is basically playing TAG and hammering the nuts against people who call off their stacks with thin draws, playing huge draws aggressively, and only make moves against thinking and/or predictable opponents).
I can clearly identify the mistakes my opponents are making and I know in theory how to exploit that, but in practice I can't seem to make it happen... See some hands below for examples.

My perception is that I'm winning small pots and losing big ones, especially with top set and with big draws. Especially top set is a huge loser. This of course includes the inevitable bad beats, but even after filtering out those beats I'm still losing big.

I decided to drop down a bit, and play $50 PLO only for a while to get my winrate back on track, and to have another look at my game. However, even at this level I'm having severe trouble winning anything. For example, yesterday I played a 4-hour session on 3 tables. I doubled up once (when I had a complete lock), but dropped 4 stacks in situations where I was at least 60% to win. I won/stole some small pots, which made up for one buyin, but the net result was still -$100. Just for a sanity check:

Hand 1. I have [Qc][Js][Ts] in LP. Opponent in EP has $60 and is a known calling station. I cover. Few limpers, minraise, I call, flop comes [Jc][4h]. Checked to me, I bet pot, opponent is the only caller.
Turn: . I pot again, opponent calls again.
River: . Opponent pushes in remaining $15 into big pot. I call with third nuts????, opponent shows [Ks][5h][5d]?? Note that on the flop I was about 86%, on the turn still 80%.

Hand 2. This is against the same opponent. He limps in EP, I call in LP with [4c][5h][6h] (I know, marginal). Flop comes [2c][3c]. Checked to me, I pot, opponent only caller. Now the turn is a brick, a . Opponent suddenly donks pot. I think of raising, but call, since I rather have a bit of money left on the river to play with. River: . Opponent pushes, I call. We split, opponent had [5s][Ks][Kh].
Again, I felt I let him get away with a bad play here...

Hand 3. I have [Ah][Kh][Qs] and call a pot raise from MP. Two see a [3h][6d] flop. Opponent leads for the pot, I raise pot, Opponent calls. Turn: . Opponent pushes remaining $20 into the $60 pot, I call. River bricks, opponent wins with [5s][6c][7c].

Hand 4. My stack is $90, opponent covers. I have [Td][Js][Qs] and raise pot in LP. One caller in EP. Flop: [9s][Ks]. Opponent leads for the pot (he always leads into the preflop raisor if there's no A on the flop), I raise pot. Opponent calls. Turn: . Opponent checks, pot is now $55 or so. I pot, opponent calls. River: . Last few $$ go in, opponent wins with [8h][7c][7d].

Any suggestions welcome.

[briachek]

[januarymute]

[Aisthesis]

[Aisthesis]

[briachek]

Ais, at these levels, mainly nutpeddling can be very profitable as i've proven so that's not necessarily the problem.

[Felonius_Monk]

If it's any help to you, I think you may very well be the most clear-minded and able PLO player on this forum AFAIK in terms of the skills required to beat the 50, 100, and 200 games. Your replies to simple questions underline your ability to determine applicable concepts in any vaguely common situation and prioritise them. If you can apply the thinking you seem to regularly demonstrate on here to the meatheads playing the mid-level PLO games online you should be crushing them long-term, and I'm sure you will.

Quit for a while, if it's getting to you. But to be honest I really can't take seriously the assertion that you think you might not be able to beat these games because you're frankly far too good not to. 4 months is a horribly long break even stretch but then I have no idea how much you play - I used to play daily (more or less) and to date have never had a losing month in my life when I've played the full month - rest assured this is more due to to yellow-bellyitis and boring statistical-extending 8-table battering of the 100, 200 and 400 games than any sort of great consistency. If you only play a few tables and every few days then 4 months is a fairly natural (if slightly abnormal) losing streak at your levels. In terms of BB, or $, how much exactly is your losing streak?

If this is getting to you on a personal level or you want to talk it over PM me.

[Aisthesis]

[Kuso]

[Ojingo]

[Kuso]

[Kuso]

[Ojingo]

As for the games on stars: I don't play enough there to have a good opinion about how the games changed. However, I played there this weekend on the $100 tables, and I saw some serious insanity. For example, there was one wild aggro player, who would make a pot raise in lp with any hand containing a few paint , and then bet pot on flop and on turn no matter what. One hand I had suited AA in the BB; he raised pot; button called. I decided to reraise, since the button would likely fold and had only 70 bb left. So I make it $30 to go, both call. Flop: KT6, two spades. Well, too bad for me; I check, maniac pushes $60, button calls, I fold. Button has KK for the pot, maniac flips over QQ44 no spades.
This guy was good for 5 buyins, but none of it for me unfortunately...

Also, on the hand where Ais suggested to push the turn: surely that is good from an equity point of view, but doesn't it take away an option on the river? I don't mind pushing big draws on the flop, but pushing the last few bucks on the turn doesn't seem to have any value. If we both miss I might be able to use that to steal on the river, and if he has any kind of hand he'll pay on the river anyway. It's a different story if you can raise pot on the turn and still have money left on the river, especially if you think your opponent doesn't necessarily have a set (if I'm pretty sure about that then I'm not pushing any turn, no matter how big the draw).

[januarymute]

[januarymute]