trapped

[Hofstra]

$50 PLO on UB. My stack is $70, opponent has $40. I'm SB with 6688. I complete, flop is seen 6 handed: [8d][7c].
I decide to check and see what happens. If the action gets too heavy I'm happy to fold my middle set. If everyone seems weak or drawing I'll make a checkraise.

Opponent (in BB) bets out the minimum (50ct) into a $3 pot. Three callers. I don't have any notes on my opponent, but I figure he is either on a flush draw, building the pot a bit, or he has a small hand like two pair.
So I checkraise the pot. My opponent calls. Turn is a , not changing anything. I bet the pot again. He calls.
River pairs the 2. I make a "value bet" putting him allin. He calls and shows AAxx.

Anyone make a better read here? I know not to overplay middle set, and I would have folded to a raise at any point. I'm pretty conscious of playing huge draws in the same way as I played the hand, so I don't think my opponent could easily put me on a made hand or rule out that I had a backup draw. He obviously took a big risk in trapping me but it worked perfectly for him.

Pieter

[starstealer]

I'm not sure if there is a way to approach this without going broke, but let's look at some possibilities:

1. The check-raise on the flop seems fine. The minimum bet was mostly a feeler - but with what? Would he make this move with the flush draw? Would he play a set like this? Is he a bad player? His call of your raise should send off warning signals though. At the very least you are looking at a) top set b) flush draw or c) wrap draw. Possibly a combination. Or, if he's a moron - he could have pocket kings...

2. On the turn you bet out the pot again - this time for ~17.50 (do I have that right?) - which puts him about half-way in. And he calls. Those warning signals should be bells by now.

2a. Here you could have made a smaller bet - say for half the pot or up to $10. By doing this, you give him the room to go over the top of you with a better hand to put you off of your hand. With just a draw to the straight or flush - he'd have a hard time calling this for odds (assuming he's playing with odds in mind). Yes, with the full pot it is harder to call - but the drawback to the full pot bet is when you are in fact behind.

3. On the river you push him allin. I'm not real fond of this. If he was on a draw - he's folding here. If he's got you crushed - he's calling. I can't see him calling all the way with bottom set - and I definitely don't see him calling because he hit a 3rd two on the river. If he's calling here he's got AAxx or (possibly) A27x. So at this point, check it - let him push it in and call that.

On the turn though, I think you need to make a smaller bet though. Something big enough that he has to respect it with a flush or straight draw (and if the deuce finishes the flush or straight - you better check-fold on the river...) or something that you truly worry about - the biggest boat.

Like I said - I think you'll lose your stack here a fair amount of times because it is tough to get him to take the initiative. Checking on the turn is a tough move because you don't want to give a free card to the straight or flush - so I think a half-pot bet is probably best.

/d

[Felonius_Monk]