The "Eh, what the hell" Bluff

[TightWad]

Heh heh...I don't know if my river-bet was actually +EV or not, but that fact that it worked still makes me a happy fuck-face. Piers'll probably bitch me out for playing KJs in EP...or MP, whatever the hell I was in...but we all know Piers is a nitty rock, so we'll disregard his inevitable mockery.


Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: TW is MP1 with , .
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, TW calls, 4 folds, SB completes, BB raises, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, TW calls, SB calls.

Flop: (11 SB) , , (5 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG raises, UTG+2 folds, TW calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, TW calls, SB calls, BB folds.

River: (12.50 BB) (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, TW bets, SB folds, UTG folds.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

Results in white below:
TW has Kc Jc (high card, king).
Outcome: TW wins 13.50 BB.

Yes, lotsa times I'll get called on the river and it feel like a waste of the bet...but it only has to work like 1 in 12 times, and the board was pretty damned scary. I AM A PLUCKING, EXPERT...BASSPOLES!!!!!! @!#*(&^@#*(&@(*#

-TW

[MecosKing]

Well, lemme see. 4 or five people in, 4 str. on the board, and action on top of it? WHAT KIND OF A PLUCKING SHIFT FOR BRAINS SOCK PUCKING BLUFF WAS THAT?

Oh, wait, you won. What i meant to say was ... Nice hand sir! Whether or not thats a +EV play is an interesting question- im actually interested to hear what the powers-that-be in this forum have to say about it.

My guess on that hand is if the flush got there, you'd be in dootie up to your eyeballs. Nice play, definitely good for an el oh el.

[starstealer]

The sad thing about this hand is I wouldn't be all that surprised if the Acxc was out there and you ended up not hitting your hand to save you a whole boat load (plus the amount you won...)

I did something similar to this in the tourney last night. One time it worked... the other it didn't.

[TightWad]

Star, it's certainly true that the nut-flush draw may have been out there, but I don't see folding the second-nut draw for the odds I was getting (especially the turn, like 10:1 or something)...Mecos, there were only two opponents in, and I would've been shocked if someone made a straight or back-door flush and wasn't betting it on the river...plus, if they had, or if they called me down with a pair...oh well, it was 1 big bet risked to gain 12.5. The majority of the time, this bet probably won't work...but that doesn't make it negative EV.

-TW

[TightWad]

Looking back at the hand, it looks even moreso that you're both right, and that a higher flush draw was out there...but wouldn't you agree that it's a lot easier to make that guess AFTER they both fold to my river bet? Meaning, if you were in the hand, would you actually have folded your K-high flush draw, worrying that you're up against a higher flush-draw?

I'm asking because I almost NEVER worry about a higher flush (unless there's 4 flush-cards out there). Don't get me wrong, if I flop a 6-high flush, I'm not gonna cap every round if someone keeps hitting it...but I guess I'm saying I play flushes kinda like most play sets; if someone hits a higher flush than me, I'm gonna lose some money to 'em.

-TW

[MecosKing]

Nah id never have folded it. In fact, on the flop id put in as much money as i possibly could, figuring that my overcards were probably good also. Kinghigh is a big one- totally unfoldable IMHO. Someone couldve been in there with [10c] or or something. The only excuse for folding a flushie draw is if you have a baby flush draw and theres enough people in the pot that its pretty likely someone else has a bigger one, or if you have to call more than one big bet cold for a draw to the non-nuts (Nut flush onna paired board, or a small flush)

In THIS hand, the nuts was probly out there, only because there are almost no middle or low suited connectors that missed that board. All SC's and one gappers from 2-3 to 910 at least make 2pr there, and your J and K cover even more, ya know? I mean still though, this analysis is a bit complicated to think of during a hand, and hell, it might be wrong anyways.


OH yeah, but as far as the straight goes: The only reason I am a little iffyon your straight theory iis that the UTG was representing a 4, but ended up with the bottom end of a four straight, come the river. I mean, he raised the flop and bet the flippin turn when the straight got there, for crissake. So, its not inconveivable that he was slowing down on the river because the running flush and the higher straight both got there.

In any case, i never said the play was -EV. I have no idea if it is or not. I know i wouldnt have made it, and I of course, wouldve lost the pot. Im waitin to hear what all the other alleged experts got to say about it. Cmon experts! Where you at?! Man. These guys are shirkin thier duties. Its been like, 2 hours since you posted this, and NOTHIN! .

[TightWad]

[Cactus Jack]