Firing another shell: Hand 3 from the weekend

[Gishaclaus]

Here's another hand that offers a little more in the way of postflop strategy. Again, this is the 1-3 NL at Bally's AC. I was about 12 hours into my session so this hand will be rather generally described . . .

Villian in this hand is a rather LAGgy Asian kid (different one from my first post) who had built his stack up to about $1500 by flopping a few full houses and and taking some rather large pots of a few people calling raises with suited connectors (and worse) and then breaking them when he hit. At this point, I wasn't sure whether he was very good, very lucky, or some combination thereof. Needless to say, I had reservations about facing off against him with any marginal holdings . . . I had about 2200 behind me, and was sitting directly to his left.

I pick up JJ in the MP. He fires out a raise to $10 and I reraise to $40. Folded around to him, he calls. Flop is apparently a good one for me: T 7 3 rainbow. He checks to me and I make it $75 to go. He goes in the tank for about 15 seconds and then raises me to $225 straight. Thoughts?

[Mad Genius]

This looks like an easy fold. You have represented an overpair all the way, and he isn't backing off. It looks to me like there is a VERY good chance he flopped a set and is looking to take your stack, putting you on Aces or Kings. The only other hand that I could possibly see him making that play with is 9-8, but even then he has quite a few outs.

However, let's assume for a moment that you call his raise. The pot should be about $530 after you call. Let's say a blank comes on the turn and he fires out $350. What would you do then? Would anything chance if the board paired, or if an A/K came?

[Felonius_Monk]

[iceman5]

AA, KK, QQ and TT all beat you. I say fold. He could have 98s if he likes to raise suited connectors but its going to cost you your stack to find out. Patience is the key.

[Gishaclaus]

Let me try to address everyone's points here; but first let me add a key point that I neglected to include. I pointed out that much of his stack came from flopping monster hands on relatively innocent boards (a full house with TT3 on the flop comes to mind). What I failed to point out is that, almost without fail, he would check call to the river and then put in a modest value raise. He never led into anyone when he flopped a hand, at least not that I could see. Anyway . . . in general, I think that folding this hand is incredibly weak.

MD --

I think the range of hands you are putting him on is incredibly compressed. You don't think he makes this play with JT? Or QT? You don't think he could put me on AK/AQ and think I missed the flop completely? Don't you think it's cheaper for him to raise now to find out where he stands? Especially since, if he is ahead, any card higher than a ten on the turn has the potential to either kill any future action or beat him outright? I know TPMK isn't a big pot kind of hand (for me anyway) but for me that was within the realm of possiblity. If the turn blanks, and then he fires out again, I would very likely fold. It would definitely depend on my read at the time.

Iceman and Felonius --

I'm amused that you think I'd be willing to back this hand with my stack. Do you think I got my big stack at this table by accident? I would be willing (and did) call his raise to see what would happen on the turn. Any aggression from him and I would fold, without hesitation. At the time, his flop raise felt too much like a move from someone who felt like I missed a flop with AK/AQ, or someone who felt I had an overpair and would lay down to a representation of a set.

So, I ended up calling after going in the tank for about a minute. Turn blanks, and he checks immediately. Your action?

[Bob314]

[Mad Genius]

You cannot always assume the other player is raising with nothing. He has to put you on an overpair. You re-raised preflop and then strongly bet a rag flop. And while there is an outside chance that you do have AK, is he gonna raise $225 to find out if you do? He might have slowrolled his monsters but if he correctly puts you on a overpair he knows there is no reason to. Once he's checked the turn, I think you have to check behind him. You want to keep the pot relatively small so that you can call a bet on the river. If you bet now, you'll have to bet at least $300, which would make the pot more than $1100 by the river. If the river is another blank, I would call any reasonable bet. If he checks again, I would value bet 1/2 the pot.

[Gishaclaus]

Well, MG gets the gold star in this case . . . I did indeed check behind on the turn, and the river was another brick. He checked and I bet $250. He flashed 99 as he folded and mumbled about folding the best hand . . . I let him wonder . Nice to know some people think I didn't completely butcher this hand . . .

Thanks again,

Eric

[iceman5]

MG said to fold. He said he would check behind IF he called which he wouldnt do.
I think I need to get into this game. Those guys are bad. Its like playing at Party Poker.

[Gishaclaus]

You have no idea. I just bought a car because of how well I did over the last four weekends. I feel like it's getting me into some bad habits, but I think the key is that playing the best poker (eg always making the most positive EV play) is not necessarily, and in this game often definitely not, the way to maximinze earnings. Figuring out when people go on unreal monkey tilt and taking advantage of it with some hands that *seem* marginal has worked to my advantage. Of course an hourly rate of over $100 isn't sustainable for me (I don't think so anyway) but it sure is nice while it lasts.

I'll say it once and I'll say it again: Bally's AC has the dumbest poker players on Earth. It's almost impossible to lose unless the deck bends you over the sofa . . . Of course, it helps when you know all the regulars and everyone tends to stay relatively out of each other's way . . . .

More hands from last weekend to come, including some I lost. I promise.

Regards,

Eric

[Mad Genius]

I loved the part where villian said how he had the best hand as he was folding. It was clear as day that you had an overpair all the way and if he didn't realize it then you should make it a point to sit with him as much as you can.