Tough decision with AA on the flop

[tetsuo]

PokerStars, Christmas day. I'm waiting for another 100k milestone to pass. This was great fun, all the tables I was at started folding like crazy trying to get as many hands in as possible to increase the chances of hitting the 'big one'. By the way, the 1 billionth hand 50k bonus went to a regular at Stars, a .10/.25 player called r3vbr.

Anyway, this is an NL $50 game and I have been told I am a 'suckout' (e.g. raised with unimproved AKs on a flop, got a free card on the turn and hit the flush on the river) and 'too aggressive' already. People are gunning for me.

I have [Ah] in the pocket and I'm in the SB.

There is raise to $2.50 from EP and there are 2 callers. I raise to $7.50 and only the EP raiser calls. The pot is $20 and we both have about $60 left.

My opponent is the one that has called me 'too aggressive' but is not appearing to be on tilt in the slightest.

The flop is [Tc][Ac], which I'm not liking at all.

I lead out for $10 and he goes all in for $60 odd.

He then says "sure hope you dont have aa".

I say "I have but I'm not sure I can call that".

He says "if you really do go ahead and take your money".

What's your move?

[outcome and his hole cards later]

[Nortonesque]

I would call this. Most of the hands he raises with and calls your reraise with, you're ahead of here. Even if he is doing this with KQ, you've got outs to the house (unless he has a royal). He's probably protecting a set, or has something like [Kc].

[Bob314]

If this is an unraised pot you would be more afraid I think. I think you are best here and should get all your chips in.

[Gishaclaus]

Tetsuo--

This is an autocall. With the money in the pot, even if he flips over a flush (or a straight with a high club) before you decide you still almost have to call, as you're about 35% to fill up (I think everyone can do the math). Given that a push here could mean a lot of things (pair + flush draw, two pair, a worse set), a call is in order I believe.

Eric

[iceman5]

He doesnt have a flush and I doubt he has KQ. I think he has something like, [Kh] or [Jd].

I call.

[tetsuo]

I'm really surprised by the unanimity of the comments! The board is very co-ordinated and this is a substantial stack to lose.

I reasoned that he *must* know that I have AA because of the reraise, so it completely befuddled and baffled the hell out of me how he could go all in with such a massive risk to himself without having me beat.

I mean, this is PokerStars, guys, not Party... NL 50 at 'Stars positively squeaks at times. And this guy had not been seen with his hand in the till, either.

But.. grumble grumble...you are of course correct and if I had thought about it past the slap-in-the-face shock of it all, I would have realized that he could not possibly have called me preflop without a pair or AK, so he could not have a made flush.

I folded, he showed [Kd]. Not even a .

Lesson learned. 500 lines of "I will NEVER fold top set on the flop in a raised pot" to be written on the blackboard..

[Rhound50]

Tetsuo,

Another good tell that he doesnt have the flush is the reraise. Why overbet the pot with a reraise if he flops the flush? If he flopped the flush he wants you to call, he is a 3:1 favorite and you have another $60 behind you that he doesnt really want you to fold. He thinks your a really agressive player he has to think with a smooth call on the flop and position on you that a call from him and another big bet on the turn has you pot committed and he will have a good chance to have all your chips.

Reason #2, the over bet reraise screams to me I'm protecting my hand against draw. This might make sense if he had the straight but not if he flopped the flush. Even if he flopped the straight the overbet of the pot is a bad player because he could betting into a drawing dead situation.

[tetsuo]

[Mad Genius]

I don't see how you could possibly not call. 90% of the time he is gonna be wired calling your re-raise, so unless he somehow called your re-raise with [Qc] and flopped a royal, he cannot have a flush. I would be willing to bet my bankroll that he doesn't go all-in with the royal there. Once you can rule out the flush, you have everything beat. He has outs if he has Kings with the , but you are still more than a 2-1 favorite. Any other hand you are a huge favorite over.

[Atorvastatin]

Not to pile on, and the other posts imply this, but it sounds like you're playing scared. A couple questions...

Are you playing with an adequate bankroll for the limits you're playing? If you are, I can't imagine making a laydown like this.

Had you taken a series of bad beats recently prior to this?

This is meant as constructive criticism, not to offend you. Just my only possible explanations for laying a hand like that down.

[Kalle]

Tetsuo

I would overbet the pot with a flush in this hand (I don't have the king of clubs). If you have a set (which you can't fold) I want to get my money in as a favourite and if you have the king of clubs I don't want to give you a cheap draw. If I raise to 30 and the turn is another club or the board pairs I wouldn't know what to do.

[tetsuo]

Atorvastatin: I'm not playing scared per se because I have more than 20 buyins for 50 NL. But (like everybody at the lower limits, I guess) I've lost plenty of big pots thinking "naaah, they CAN'T have that straight because that'd mean they called off virtually all their money on a gutshot draw", and you know what? They did, lol. So maybe I was a bit gun-shy (cautious), but that's just natural I think.

Kalle: Definitely. I've seen people do that many times before - a flush made with small suited connectors trying to shut a higher flush draw out. This was one thing that crossed my mind and maybe did lend that extra little bit of credance to the notion that he did have the flush.

At the time, I just couldn't bring myself to commit all that money as a possible underdog drawing to a house. I can't believe that anyone can reasonably say 'if you are convinced he has the flush, call anyway because you are only a 2:1 dog'. No-one wants to stick their money in as that much of an underdog.

So in a way I'm happy with my decision to lay it down because I was convinced he had the flush. After all, you've got to go with your instincts, no?

But I'm not happy with my instincts and should've reasoned it out more before making a decision. And that's where all your advice has come in useful - thanks guys.

[k3nt]

You gave a big clue when you said this opponent had called you "too aggressive." He may well put you on QQ or AQ or even worse, even given your re-raise preflop. With TPTK, no flush draw for himself, and the three-flush flop, he just might have the best hand and wants to get it all-in to make you pay big for your draw.

Tough hand. I bet you felt really virtuous when you laid it down -- look, I'm so good I can even lay down AA! (I know I would have. ) Ah well, live & learn.

[tetsuo]

Heh, yeah like I say, I did feel good that I had the discipline to lay it down because I thought he had the flush, so I'm not beating myself up about it.

I was confused by his table talk. Yeah, he's called me too aggressive, so maybe he thinks that I will definitely bite and pay him off on a flopped flush, ergo he must have it! You can doublethink everything if you try hard enough

[iceman5]

Remeber that he raised first and then called your reraise. Almost NOBODY raises in EP with suited connectors especially at that level. He would have to have [Qc] to have the flush and theres now way hes reraising all in with a flopped royal.