2/5 Live NL Hand

[Mad Genius]

Recently I decided to play in the 2/5 NL game again. Old villian was nowhere to be found, which was quite a relief. The new villian is just as tough a player, though, which is why I'm posting this hand for advice. After buying in for $500, I'm at little over $900 about 2 hours into the game. There are 2 people who are gambling like crazy, while the rest of the table is fairly solid. Just a few minutes after winning a nice pot with 77 after flopping a set against one of the maniacs, I get JJ in LP. Villian (~$1100), makes it $25 from UTG+1. He is probably the toughest player at the table; he is a bit on the loose-aggressive side but has definately shown down some solid hands. I'm not too eager to get in a hand with him but I call his raise. Blinds fold and we are headsup.

FLOP: [Jd][Th] (Pot: $57)

He bets $50. I raise to $150. He calls.

TURN: (Pot: $357)

He leads out for $200. If I call, I have $540 left.

My play is to:

a. Call
b. Min raise
c. Go all-in
d. Fold

I would like to hear opinions on what the best move would be here and why.

[t-bone]

The only hands you are miles behing here are AK (which you could draw out on) and QQ, which would suck. If somone did have AK or QQ here I'd go broke 99/100 I think. It's way too hard to lay down middle set there. I say go allin and pray he has KK, AA or TT. There's even an outside chance he has AQ.

[iceman5]

Id put him all in but I wouldnt be surprised at all to see AK. I dont see any way to get away from this one. I would think if he had AK he would check raise the turn so he may not have it. Looks more like AA or KK to me, but like I said, Id be holding my breathe and praying.

[Johnny Hughes]

Being big winner with your stack sizes, I don't like the flop raise.

His call of the raise and then the $200 bet smells deceptive and like a straight. I would probably call but folding would not be a bad play.

[tetsuo]

I'm with Johnny. Calling a substantially odds-destroying raise and then leading into you with an underbet smells funny, and not in a good way.

I think you're too deep to risk all your money when AK or QQ are eminently probable holdings for him. If either of you had substantially fewer chips, there'd be no decision because there'd be virtually no money left to bet past the call anyway so everything would be copacetic.

There's no way I'd play for my entire stack on that board. Since that is what he is effectively challanging you to do, I would fold thinking I'd gotten away from a potential bust reasonably cheaply.

I expect to be called weak, but there you go. Eventually I may change my ways, but that's how I'm thinking right now.

I'd also have called him on the flop. With potsizers on all streets, you've still got scope to get all your money in and make the bets look appropriately sized without tipping off the strength of your hand.

[Bob314]

I think the calling of your raise and then leading back into you is really dangerous. I think that any read you have here would be vitally important (I was in a similar situation recently and the only reason I got through it was because I knew the player). You said the opponent was a little loose/aggressive but had shown solid hands--did he every make some of his loose raises in early position or did he keep things fairly tight from that position? It is really hard to lay down a set here but I disagree with Iceman when he says you can't get away from it. However, if you are going to continue with the hand I agree with Iceman that you need to shove in here because even if he has underbet on the turn it still doesn't give you odds to call and try and catch the boat.

[Nortonesque]

[Mad Genius]

[tetsuo]

[iceman5]

I think he plays TT the exact same way. He was afraid that YOU had AK and still led into you at the turn. Thats tell me he wouldve done it with TT and probably AA and KK also. I think the number of hands that you beat here compels you to stay with the hand.

[Mad Genius]

My thinking on the turn might have been flawed somewhat - I thought that even if he had AK I could fill up on the river and take his stack. In retrospect, I'm pretty sure I wasn't gonna get called on an all-in if villian had AK and board paired - although it's possible. Which means my implied odds go down and my call on the turn isn't very good. I still thought he could have AA, KK, or TT, although once he moves in on the river, I have to eliminate AA and KK unless HE is putting me on AK and trying to represent the boat. If he has TT, I don't think he's making this move. It's only a good move if he puts me on AK but that's hard to so since I didn't raise the turn. All in all, I think all the signs were pointing towards QQ - his PF raise, smooth-calling my flop raise, and leading out again on the turn - and I should have made the laydown.

[Bob314]

I'm going to have to suggest a strategy change for you MG....STOP RUNNING INTO QUEENS!!

[Smokin'Al]