The Delayed Bluff

[piersmajestyk]

This is a hand from today where I posted a late position blind for my first hand. It gets raised by an EP player and is folded around to me. Now it doesn't matter much what I have here as I am calling this bet getting 4.4:1 on my call with position in what may very well turn out to be a heads up pot which it ends up being. I have a rather mediocre hand with K8o but I have a powerful winning force surrounding me so I don't worry too much about that.

***** Hand History for Game 2566390634 *****
$5/$10 Texas Hold'em - Saturday, August 20, 09:07:37 EDT 2005
Table Galaxy (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: playsLKAgirl ( $401.50 )
Seat 2: Stick203 ( $223.50 )
Seat 3: jimfd3 ( $252 )
Seat 4: handsfree4u ( $183.50 )
Seat 5: Switzerland ( $229 )
Seat 6: fj555 ( $136 )
Seat 7: EDSWEF ( $197.50 )
Seat 9: shrader333 ( $364.75 )
Seat 10: AXE705 ( $362.75 )
Seat 8: Lucia_Cortez ( $250 )
AXE705 posts small blind [$2].
playsLKAgirl posts big blind [$5].
Lucia_Cortez posts big blind [$5].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Lucia_Cortez [ 8h Kc ]
Stick203 folds.
jimfd3 raises [$10].
handsfree4u folds.
Switzerland folds.
fj555 folds.
EDSWEF folds.
Lucia_Cortez calls [$5].
shrader333 folds.
AXE705 folds.
playsLKAgirl folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3h, 5c, Tc ]
jimfd3 bets [$5].
Lucia_Cortez calls [$5].

Ok so here is where the play begins. I don't figure that flop connected with him. Perhaps he has a Big Pair but I am willing to gamble on that. With my call I am planning on raising the turn barring an A or an 8, a Turn Delayed Bluff. This play works wonders most of the time because most folks when they attempt a bluff won't pull the trigger for 2 BB and unless the original better has a very strong hand they are going to have a very tough time calling that raise. [size=18]This is not a play to be used haphazardly against multiple opponents or questionable boards that very well could have connected with your opponent.[/size] You are risking 2 BB here in order to win 4.5 BB so you don't have to be successful all the time and if done in the right circumstances you stand to win much more often than 50% of the time.

** Dealing Turn ** [ 8s ]

Well I paired up so instead of pulling the Turn Bluff Raise I choose rather to call. I do this because now if I raise and he doesn't have anything I will lose a potential river bet if he folds and also I can play it safer now and not open myself up to a 3 bet if he indeed does have me beat. Another reason is that my K kicker is likely a bad card for him if that card should roll off on the river.

jimfd3 bets [$10].
Lucia_Cortez calls [$10].

** Dealing River ** [ Td ]

Not a bad card I think that falls here.

jimfd3 bets [$10].
Lucia_Cortez calls [$10].

jimfd3 shows [ Kd, Ac ] a pair of tens.
Lucia_Cortez shows [ 8h, Kc ] two pairs, tens and eights.
Lucia_Cortez wins $74 from the main pot with two pairs, tens and eights.
shrader333 has left the table.

Begin rant, "nice call, etc." Well what he didn't take into account with my ragged flop call was that he was about to be raised on the turn and would have had a hard time calling that bet, although with the way that alot of players are they are willing to go to the bitter end with AK unimproved and with his bet on the river perhaps he would not have folded. His river bet really stinks because he either has the best hand and won't get called or I will call with any pair with the pot size and given that I have already called both the flop and turn. It only has a - Expectation.

[EscapePlan9]

I was waiting to see you apply the delayed bluff in the hand... ah well, I understand the idea.

My only quibble with it... you are assuming since overcards are more likely to be dealt than overpairs they must have overcards here. Sure it might work sometimes, because it is true overcards occur more than overpairs. But this justifies calling down with bottom pair everytime unless Q-A appears on the flop.

[piersmajestyk]

No but it does justify raising or CR with bottom pair on a rag board I am not a big fan of continued calling. If I hit a piece of the flop on rags I generally want to find out where I stand fast so that I can take control of the hand or just perhaps save a bet or two on later streets by getting them to check to the raiser.

Sometimes it is better to go ahead and raise or CR the flop on a bluff than wait on the turn but with the above flop having 2 clubs on it he could well look upon that as a raise for a free card and he may well have 3 bet me there with just AK.

[briachek]

i'm surprised you didn't raise the river. If you did, you still might get a call out of AK/AQ and such. Do you not do this just in case he has you beat? I don't see how he can 3 bet you on the river without a T. Seems like you could have earned another BB there.

[piersmajestyk]

I don't think he calls a river raise unless he has me beat. Especially with that 10 hitting.

[briachek]

if you think his river bet is bad to begin with, what makes you think he won't call you with an AK unimproved because "the pot is so large"? He can't 3 bet you without a T so you only have to be right 50% of the time to earn more money plus if he folds, you don't have to show your hand unless you want him to see.

[TightWad]

[piersmajestyk]

In this particular situation I would probably be tempted to check call due to a variety of things. The lack of a raise on flop which could very well indicate he had nothing. Most players here if they flop top pair would probably raise. A possible flush draw out there that didn't connect that would also fit with someone just calling the flop and turn.

In my opinion the bet on the river is -EV but a check call could very well induce a bluff that I can pick off for an extra bet.

[TightWad]

[piersmajestyk]

That K in my hand was the main reason I just called because I figured he either had me beat or if he didn't he had AK as was drawing very slim with one of his out going to cost him an additional river bet. If I held 98 there I would have raised for two reasons, one hopefully he folds and two if he doesn't fold he will probably check it to me on the river barring improvement and I can check behind if something bad hits and I still get my extra Big Bet if I have the best hand.

[TightWad]

Okay.

[TightWad]

[Derf]

[piersmajestyk]

I think it goes beyond that Derf as I see the same thing many times with very dangerous boards and action by more than 1 opponent but yet they still call to the end, even overcalling the river at times with A high. There are certainly times when it is a good thing to call with AK high, hell I have called with Q high before and won , but I think that way too many players go too far with AK unimproved. When facing a turn raise or CR most of the time you have to figure you are beat, perhaps by then you have the odds to draw and hit a 6 outer but shouldn't pay off on the river unimproved. Sure you're going to pick off some bluffs along the way but I don't think enough of them, particularly by folks raising on the turn, to justify calling all the way down. This I believe could almost be written in stone at the lower levels because you just aren't going to be facing too many players that are tricky enough to try some move like this, if they call your flop bet and raise you on the turn they almost 100% of the time can beat A high. And in that line of thinking I believe that the AK high call down in higher limits is many times justifiable.

[Tiburon]

Back to the hand. Piers, I'm shocked. I know how you are (and have been more lately) with defending your BB. I'm just a bit shocked that you would call an EP raise with K8o.

To recap:
Piers is CO with

You were calling $5 to win $22, so your 4.4-to-1 is correct. We know well that almost no hand in poker is a 4.4-to-1 underdog to another, and that especially applies heads up.

You were a 76-24 underdog pre-flop (3.16-to-1), so your call was correct, if you didn't think you were up against KK or AA--it's almost funny that you're less of a dog to AA than KK. To me, an EP raise means usually AA, KK, QQ, AK, or AQs. You're as little as a 65-35 dog to AQo, or as much as a 10-1 dog to KK.

Flop:

At this point, you are a 7.85-to-1 underdog. He bets (correctly with overcards), and you call. You were getting 6.4-to-1 to call, so it's a gutsy call.

This is where Piers HAS to trust his read. He felt the flop missed his opponent, and he was right.

Turn:

Suddenly, Piers is an overwhelming favorite (13.7-to-1), and his opponent is down to 3 outs (the remaining aces in the deck). You have to know that you're the favorite here, and that any kind of raise could likely chase this guy out. You just call.

River:

What are you behind here? You're only behind to a set (not raising from EP with 33, 55, or 88,), an overpair (99-AA), or a Broadway hand like AT. Nothing else makes sense for a raise from EP.

Well played hand--gutsy, but well played. I'd have probably dumped it on the flop, but that's why you're a winning 5/10 player, and I'm busy slumming at 3/6! Nice job, not to mention a great example of overplaying AK. Again, it's all about the read.