by EscapePlan9 » Thu Aug 25, 2005 10:22 am
Poker Stove is fun... so I'll simulate Tiburon's scenario again. You have AA, someone has 96 of clubs, the other two have whatever crap.
Pre-flop:
8,655,712 games 35.969 secs 240,643 games/sec
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 58.3772 % 58.26% 00.12% { AcAd }
Hand 2: 13.1503 % 12.76% 00.39% { JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, AQo-A7o, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 3: 13.1473 % 12.76% 00.39% { JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, AQo-A7o, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 4: 15.3252 % 14.92% 00.40% { 9c6c }
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You cannot argue with having 60% equity.
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Flop:
15,983,311 games 35.187 secs 454,239 games/sec
Board: 7c 3s 2h
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 70.2678 % 70.27% 00.00% { AcAd }
Hand 2: 10.4177 % 10.30% 00.12% { JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, AQo-A7o, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 3: 10.4311 % 10.32% 00.12% { JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, AQo-A7o, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 4: 08.8834 % 08.73% 00.16% { 9c6c }
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You now have 70% equity! 96s will only outdraw you 9% of the time.
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Turn:
15,989,844 games 28.063 secs 569,783 games/sec
Board: 7c 3s 2h 8d
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 66.3429 % 66.34% 00.00% { AcAd }
Hand 2: 07.9639 % 07.87% 00.09% { JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, AQo-A7o, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 3: 07.9475 % 07.86% 00.09% { JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, AQo-A7o, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 4: 17.7457 % 17.59% 00.16% { 9c6c }
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You still have over 65% equity here! But now 96 picked up the OESD and will outdraw you 18% of the time.
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Always remember the long-term.