3 bet the flop or wait till the turn?

[Xaston]

***** Hand History for Game 2595091578 *****
$30/$60 Texas Hold'em - Thursday, August 25, 11:58:02 EDT 2005
Table Table 48766 (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: tuck64 ( $500.50 )
Seat 2: zerpt ( $987 )
Seat 7: RowdieDogg ( $1981.50 )
Seat 8: smakely ( $429 )
Seat 9: the72tiger ( $5010.06 )
Seat 10: LuckyRebuy ( $1686 )
Seat 4: MeMyselfIren ( $2529 )
Seat 5: Grogligraj ( $1500 )
Seat 6: Yattaman ( $1992 )
Seat 3: jdftkd ( $1865 )
smakely posts small blind [$15].
the72tiger posts big blind [$30].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to MeMyselfIren [ 3s 4s ]
LuckyRebuy folds.
tuck64 folds.
zerpt folds.
jdftkd folds.
MeMyselfIren raises [$60].
Yattaman folds.
RowdieDogg folds.
smakely calls [$45].
the72tiger calls [$30].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9d, 3d, 4d ]
smakely bets [$30].
the72tiger raises [$60].
MeMyselfIren..................
Call and raise a non diamond non 9 turn or 3 bet now?

[EscapePlan9]

I'd call the flop and raise a non-scary card on turn. Some people might argue you have such a huge equity edge on the flop so you should raise right there and I wouldn't consider it a bad play by any means. But I prefer waiting for the turn.

You're likely against overcards with a diamond, or an overpair with a diamond. No one will fold a big diamond to any amount of bets here. At best you'd get someone to fold big cards not containing a diamond - which doesn't change the situation at all. You will probably only win this hand if no more diamonds come, or if you fill your boat.

Basically... you most likely have an edge on the flop (unless one of them has a set or flush already), but you will have a larger edge if a non-scare card comes on the turn.

Even if a scare card comes on the turn, as long as it isn't a 9, you might have the odds (factoring in implied odds) to fill your boat. If I did the calculations right, there'd be 6BB at the start of the turn. If it just goes bet-call to you, you'd be getting 8:1, not quite enough for your 4-outter, but if you hit it you will almost always win more than 2 BB on the river. Then again, I doubt with this flop action it'll just go bet-call on the turn when another diamond appears. Probably bet-fold, bet-raise, or check-bet.

[TightWad]

[EscapePlan9]

[TightWad]

Yeah, it can go either way. In favor of waiting till the turn, a turn-raise is certainly bound to have more fold-equity against non-nut draws...but, there are also problems. For one thing, there are very few cards you'll actually like to see on the turn. Aside from the ones that actually kill you (a 4th diamond or a nine) there's also plenty that could give your opponents a pair, or a gutter, or a straight draw to go with their assumed flush draw. For that matter, the flop-raiser might be a little freaked by your cold-call. Sure, I think most opponents would bet the turn again allowing you to raise...but there's at least some chance that he'll freeze up and check the turn, and thus you've lost your chance to raise, along with your chance to put some serious pressure on the flop bettor.

The problem is that it's easy to spin either side by only looking at the bad points of one or the other; what's tougher is to actually weigh these pros and cons and come up with which is best on average. Personally, I still go with the flop 3-bet, but I think it's close. So I also am pretty much in agreement with Escape that the only really bad move would be fold. Certainly, one of the other two options is better, but I think it's pretty close.

-TW

[TightWad]

[EscapePlan9]

[TightWad]

[EscapePlan9]

[MecosKing]

[EscapePlan9]