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Turn-raise with huge flop equity, bad? - Live Poker Forums

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Turn-raise with huge flop equity, bad?

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Turn-raise with huge flop equity, bad?

Postby EscapePlan9 » Mon Sep 26, 2005 12:34 am

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (8 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with [7s], [7d]. Hero posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, Hero (poster) checks, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) [Kc], [7h], [4s] (6 players)
SB bets, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (5 BB) [3d] (4 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, SB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (13 BB) [Jc] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 raises, Hero 3-bets, SB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 21 BB

When I hit a set on the flop, I generally raise it. Here, I reasoned I was in the perfect situation to wait for the turn:

1) The board is highly uncoordinated. This means someone betting probably has a pair of something (probably someone with top-pair) and not just a draw. Same with many of the callers.

2) The bet came from the far left and with me on the button, I could easily trap everyone for more bets on the turn. If I raised on the flop, I'd probably scare the loose-passives into check-calling the turn. Miller and Sklansky even say it's okay to wait for the turn if you're NEAR CERTAIN raising the flop with your huge edge would lead to everyone checking the turn. It's more profitable to collect an extra BB from each player than an extra SB, right?

3) No one raised pre-flop, so it's unlikely someone has a strong hand like TPGK.

Do I have a case of Fancy Play Syndrome by occasionally calling the flop and raising the turn in this situation? Or is my approach reasonable?
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Postby MecosKing » Mon Sep 26, 2005 2:19 am

Uhm-- yeah i think everyone would agree that the way you played it is pretty much perfect. raising the flop does so many bad things- first it leaves open the possibility that the bettor could 3 bet it, and knock people out of the pot that way, or more likely, itll get checked around to you and youll lose the turn bets. IN addition, if the bettor actually does have a big hand like TPGK or something, he could CR you on the turn and shut out everyone in between, and even though youll get a three bet off here, youll still make less.

On the other hand though, as you said the board is pretty uncoordinated, so people probably arent on any really strong draws, wihch means you may run into the problem where you will lose alot of people when the bettor bets the turn, and then your wet dream of trapping an entire field for 2 big bets will be all but shattered, and youll wish you raised the flop instead.

SO what id say is if the tables really loose then wait for the turn, since theres a decent chance that alot of people will come along for the turn, but if the table errs on the side of tight, then get that raise as quick as possible since the field may get alot thinner on the turn.
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