A slightly different river-fold situation...

[TightWad]

This is different than the situation I mentioned in my recent river-folds post because this time the raise comes on the turn, but I can't get away because I'm almost sure I have enough outs to beat my opponent on the river. The problem is, despite my read and my plan, I still couldn't fold the river

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: TW is BB with , .
UTG calls, 4 folds, MP3 raises, 3 folds, TW 3-bets, UTG calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (9.40 SB) , , (3 players)
TW bets, UTG raises, MP3 folds, TW 3-bets, UTG calls.

Turn: (7.70 BB) (2 players)
TW bets, UTG raises, TW calls.

River: (11.70 BB) (2 players)
TW checks, UTG bets, TW calls.

Final Pot: 13.70 BB

Results in white below:
TW has Ah As (one pair, aces).
UTG has Kc Qh (two pair, kings and queens).
Outcome: UTG wins 13.70 BB.

Based on the action, I was pretty sure he had KQ when he raised the turn, which would give me 8 outs to counterfeit him or set up on the river. Other possible hands were K9 (same number of outs, but different ones) or a set (only two outs for the wadsta)...and I suppose some chance he's overplaying something I beat. Anyway, when he raised my plan was to call and check-fold the river unless I hit a 6, 9, Q or ace. But naturally, when I missed, I still couldn't bring myself to follow through and fold, lol. How would you guys have played?

-TW

[Tiburon]

If he calls 2 cold pre flop with KQo from UTG, put him on your buddy list.

Otherwise, I know I couldn't get rid of this hand.

[TightWad]

I know you guys are all gonna flame me once again for saying I should've folded the river...but I still think I should've folded the river Honestly, do you think he's gonna play KJ like this? I really don't see a single hand I beat here aside from a somewhat oddly played AK. Then again, perhaps that possibility alone is enough to make calling down a good move here...I dunno, flame away

[MecosKing]

No way im folding this. Had he checkraised you, i can see a case for folding the hand. But a raise from position could be any sort of hand that he's trying to buy a free showdown with and/or possibly get you off the best hand. Then again, i dunno how many 'playahs' you have in your games, and maybe someone making this play with or or even is absolutely inconceivable, i dunno. If thats the case, then i can see an argument for mucking the hand.

However, since the raise is coming from position, it starts to look alot like it could be a free showdown play on TPTK or a TPGK + a draw of some sort type of hand. Even against a 2pair hand you have to call the turn, since youve got 8 outs.

But when he fires the river instead of checking behind, you can be pretty sure hes doing it for value and theres less of a chance you were good there than on the turn, but you have to be REALLY sure your no good to muck this hand. Some beginning / generally bad players will NOT EVER raise the turn with a single pair, when thye PF raisor fires into them. Its useful to note who these testicles are, because they are idjits, and thier obvious proclivities give away way too much about thier hand to get lots of action from an observant opponent. If this guy is not established as being such a testicle, then i say you gotta payoff here.

[BKAZ]

I assume you ruled out AK suited in spades or not because no pre flop raise? He appears to play aggressive post flop so I assume he would have raised with that hand like any sane player. Maybe KT, KJ, suited in spades would be played this way. Although I can't think of many hands that I would limp then call 2 more pre flop then go crazy with the betting on the flop (with the K) that you still beat. The Q on the turn made the flush draw live but he's not drawing to the nut flush when you have the A so he may be protecting his TP of K from the flush draw. I know you decided you were behind with the turn action but I think that again the pot is too large not to at least check call as you did.

I'd like to hear from Piers and Mecos as I think around the 5/10 level and above you may be running into more players that will run a turn / river play on you if they think they can get you to lay it down. At 3/6 and below there is little hope of this as there is almost always a calling station in the crowd to keep em honest.

my 2 cents

[TightWad]

[TightWad]

[TightWad]

[piersmajestyk]

[MecosKing]

Yeah i agree that at low limits, the river bet is probably something that oughta be folded to. The reason i am such a station in cases like this is in part because i play limits that are higher and people make more advanced plays there, but more than that its probably because i play short handed mostly, and in a short handed game, this is a pretty easy payoff hand, as many mizors in short handed would not need a hand anywhere NEAR as good as to pull shit like this. They could have , or even something as mizorly as .

Again it depends alot on the players and the game, and in an SH game, i think id pay this off. In a full ring low limit game, which from my experience generally tend to vary from being somewhat tight/aggressive to hopelesly weak tight, i can see a very strong argument for folding this hand. If you had him on KQ, and were damn near positive of it, then i say go ahead and fold.

Like most answers in poker, it is 'situation dependent' - which is basically a euphamism for saying 'hey fuck-stick-- there are no real answers in this game'

But i tend to agree that in the type of game that i have seen 3/6 to be anyway, it is proably a fold.