Who would have stopped betting the river sooner?

[SebQtaneus]

I had a nice solid little session going at Little Woods 1/2 Fullring. Had been playing about an hour and was up ~$13. Then this happened. For those of you who don't play at the Crytpo's, river betting is NOT capped. You can raise each other til you run out of money.
Luckily I stopped long before that happened. I had put the guy on a high PP or possibly A7. I didn't figure the odds of him having the case 5 were very good which is why I waited til the river to start raising. Looking back on it now I probably should have raised the turn at least, if not the flop too. Once the river betting got past a normal cap bet, I began to rethink my previous prediction of what he had in his hand. This really sucked as it took all the profit I had made the previous hour and a little bit more as punishment for unknown sins I guess.
Luckily, I have learned much from the folks here at BTP (obviously not enough though) and was able to recoup most of this during the next orbit or two with solid play.

Game #1386188263: Hold'em FL ($1/$2) - 2005/11/22 - 01:34:01 (UK)
Table "Jig" Seat 3 is the button.
Seat 2: txbyrd ($52.75 in chips)
Seat 3: xog1 ($85.25 in chips)
Seat 4: hurryup ($46 in chips)
Seat 5: Q9suited9 ($38.12 in chips)
Seat 6: rabbit13 ($79 in chips)
Seat 7: Sebright ($63.63 in chips)
Seat 8: Swilly002 ($57.04 in chips)
Seat 9: tgrshark ($58.50 in chips)
Seat 10: Polot ($50 in chips)
hurryup: posts small blind $0.50
Q9suited9: posts big blind $1
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Sebright [7d]
rabbit13: folds
Sebright: calls $1
Swilly002: folds
rabbit13 leaves the table
tgrshark: folds
txbyrd: folds
xog1: folds
hurryup: calls $0.50
Q9suited9: checks
----- FLOP ----- [5s][5h]
hurryup: bets $1
Q9suited9: folds
Sebright: calls $1
----- TURN ----- [5s][5h][7h]
hurryup: bets $2
Sebright: calls $2
----- RIVER ----- [5s][5h][7h][3d]
hurryup: bets $2
Sebright: raises $4
hurryup: raises $4
Sebright: raises $4
hurryup: raises $4
Sebright: raises $4
hurryup: raises $4
Sebright: calls $2
----- SHOW DOWN -----
hurryup: shows [6c] (Four of a kind, Fives, Seven high)
Sebright: mucks hand
hurryup collected $35.25 from Main pot

[Molina]

Opponent makes up the blind from the SB, so I'd discount 1010-AA. If I were in the SB i'd raise 88 and up to try and knock out the BB. But anyway, by waiting until the turn I'd probably have made 2 less raises on the river, though it depends on your read on the SB.

I'm pretty surprised he came out betting on the flop and turn, make a note on him betting out HUGE hands immediately, this guys play seems as obvious as can be, if he flops quads and comes out betting then he's seemingly ultra ABC.

I'd raise the flop also, often when not multiway on these kinda flops an Ace holder will fire out and those sevens are vulnerable to all the possible overcards.

These hands are real money losers <insert cliche about a bet saved is a bet earnt>

Molina

[Xaston]

Yea you fucked up the river real bad. I'd prolly just call the river 3 bet.

[SebQtaneus]

So in my place you guys are saying that you would have put him on quads rather than 5's full of A's or K's or something along those lines? Wouldn't he have played the river same way with hands like that?

[Molina]

Seb,

In your OP you said you put him on a higher pocket pair or A7, when what you meant was that you hoped he had those hands, but by raising flop and turn you'd have realised sooner that he came to lived AFTER seeing the flop. The flop bets and raises are cheaper ways to feel out his strength, so maybe they would have saved you a few reraises on the river.

And as I said before, on the flop you were vulnerable to half the deck.

I'm not the biggest fan of the idea of the 'speed of click tell' but I assume the SB was hammering in those bets like a monkey on crystal meth.

Molina

[Xaston]

It's not directly what you put him on. Put yourself in his shoes, after you raise him a second or third time he has to seriously worry that you have quads, and yet, he is still happily raising you.

And furthermore if there's a 50% chance he has a worse hand and a 50% chance he has the quads, raising the river is still wrong because if you have him beat he'll just call your raise and if he does in fact have the quads, he will raise you again and you'll lose 2 bets, while when you have the best hand you will gain only 1.

[SebQtaneus]

Mo,
Is a flop raise that he calls or reraises really going to tell me he has quads rather than aces? I figured he was strong which is why I only called. As it turned out, the 7, which I thought was the best card that could come for me on the turn, was actually the worst card I could get at that point. It gave me the 2nd NUTS with the Absolute NUTS being just one possible card in the deck. I'm not a math wiz like Xaston but I would think that the odds had to be in favor of him having something good besides that ONE card.

Xaston,
Very good explanation on that river betting stuff. It makes sense and made it very easy for me to understand.

I will be more careful (at least I hope I will be) in the future about what it might mean when someone is reraising me when I think I have the best hand.

Thanks guys

[Molina]

My point regarding flop raises was that you'd start to fear the SB having a six earlier on, the information gained on the flop is cheaper than the turn or river. Then again, the turn puts you in really bad shape even further.

Hindsight's 20/20 and all that.

Molina

[Xaston]

4.44%

[Kuso]