Good semi-bluff?

[Aisthesis]

[briachek]

i don't like the move. What if the turn puts out a heart? I am not liking your hand at all even with the flush draw. I think this is completely read dependent that you can get this guy to fold but I think you can find better situations where you have more outs if he calls on the flop. People that get a little tricky will have a set there and look for a good turn and check raise you all in and now you are stuck calling with your multi draw hoping all your outs are good.

[Aisthesis]

Agreed. I think a heart actually hurts my hand. That's really his most likely holding.

I actually wish I did have Omaha-tracker, as I'm pretty sure I had more than just nothing on the flop. I think the 9 was on the flop rather than the turn. I know I had 2 bad flush draws plus the nut straight draw on the turn.

The way he's playing, I think he's going to pot it if he has it (and maybe if he doesn't) if a heart hits because he's going to have to put me on QQ with this sequence. Hence, I THINK I can get away from the hand fairly easily.

If he does pot a heart on the turn, I'm folding for sure.

I guess it also matters hugely whether the 9 is on the flop or the turn. If it's on the flop, while he could have some kind of wrap to the same straight as I have, he's MUCH more likely just on the flush draw and probably a bigger one than mine.

Anyhow, I was putting him primarily on hearts or possibly a smaller set. If he has hearts only, I take away several of his outs anyway. But (assuming the 9 was on the flop, which makes my play sound a bit more reasonable--I really think it was, as I can't see myself bluffing that strongly with just nothing on the flop), I don't know whether it's then going to be the right play to pot a non-heart river yet again if checked to me and I don't make my straight.

Actually, the river is another case where I'm not potting it even with the nuts. There's nothing to protect against, so there I usually bet half pot or even 1/3 if I have the nuts. So, a non-heart river (again assuming the 9 on the flop) makes 1/2 pot (looking a LOT more like a value bet and still huge relative to stacks) at least a possibility. But it's hard to know how far it's reasonable to carry these things.

It worked, anyway, so I'm happy about that. But, assuming a 9 on the flop, then just making my club draw on the turn, does this change your view of the hand?

I agree that there are much better betting spots than this if the 9 didn't make it until the turn.

[Ojingo]

[Aisthesis]

[Ojingo]

Another thing. Because lags steal a lot of pots, they often take thin odds for a draw, I.e. call when they almost have odds to call, but not quite. The EV they lose by doing so is paid for by their steals, and by the fact that people will pay them off when they hit. Also, if they hit a small draw they will often put their opponents on tilt, which is of course also profitable.

My experience is that when a lag calls a raise it is most of the time a flimsy draw. A strong draw will most of the time be pushed by a lag. The only other time a lag will call is if he has a monster or thinks you're going to bluff off your chips.

[Aisthesis]

[JDLush]

[Felonius_Monk]

[Kuso]

sorry to dig this up (been away for a while), and apologies if you already got it, but...

for a thinking player, i think PTO is a must.

i like your play in the hand, but i think you need to pick your spots against lags. this seems like it could be a good one. a lot of the decision depends on how many people saw the flop and turn.

anyway, when you see a flop HU (and three-handed to a lesser extent), you don't really need the nut flush draw to like your hand. i'm not sure if this is what happened, but i just wanted to make that point.