Idiot straight + 3rd nut low

[TomG]

Poker Room skin
Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo Ring game
Blinds: $2/$2
10 players


Stack sizes:
Hero: $192.00
UTG+2: $163.50 (VPIP 55, PFR 7.5, AF-Tot 0.89)

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is UTG with
Hero calls $2, UTG+1 calls $2, UTG+2 calls $2, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $2, 3 folds, SB (poster) checks, BB (poster) checks.

Flop: ($14, 6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $12, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls $12, 3 folds.

Turn: ($38, 2 players)
Hero bets $36, UTG+2 raises to $144, Hero ...

[Kuso]

reads (more than jsut stats) would help.

villain needs at least a perfect three-card hand to beat you here (248x or 234 to 3/4) -- that or a four-card hand like 2389. more likely is a nut low and a flush draw or just a str8 maybe with a flush redraw. nut low with a set is also possible.

if villain is a bad loose-passive player (e.g., jams with one-way hands on two-way boards), i call. if he seems to be smart about it, then i will fold. you're paying about $100 to contest for all or part of $74, so you have to figure out how likely it is that villain is not playing the two-way nuts.

fwiw, some people make this play on the turn with the bare nut low.

[TomG]

[Kuso]

[JDLush]