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As suspected, in 1,582 hands this past week, AK,KK,TT,99 really hurt me. AA,AKs, and QQ were my best bb/100 hands, all over +2.17 or higher, but I had been dealt those hands a total of 14 hands. While the 4 killers were dealt a total of 57 hands.
AKo a total of 22 times and only winning 50% (-0.28BB/100), KK 10 times winning only 60% (-0.68BB/100), TT 8x and 37.5% -1.05BB/100, 99 9x 22% -1.07BB/100.
These numbers have to be an aberration, a bad run. If I filter out all of the above hands and all of the non-playable hands (ie J4s, 92, and the like) and leave myself with all of the playable hands according to Sklansky and Malmuth from LP I am actually showing a very small profit of +0.04BB/100 in 325 times dealt combined.
From this, I have to conclude that when the big hands run hot, then my numbers should change.
A last word on the full house (99) vs quads (66) hand, my thought process was at first that he had the straight. Then when the 6 hit on the turn and he 3 bet I thought TT was a possibility, but unlikely because he probably would have re-raised PF to knock out the remaining limpers and I just believe it too weak to slow down everytime quads is a possibility. I figured at a higher limit I may have to worry about better hands, but at this low a limit I will see a straight and not quads more times than not. To someone who has a straight, he may have seen many people play AA or KK this hard. With a straight myself, I would slow down after a DECENT player still showed aggression after the board paired, but possibly not as much against an idiot. In the end, I was more inclined to think he had the straight than quads or TT. Heck, it could have been T6s too from the BB.
Statistics: Posted by MTPaid — Sun Jul 16, 2006 11:13 pm
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Hand 2, TT: I'm more worried about the SB who 3 bet pre-flop than the CO. I figure that one of your opponents has your hand beat and I would fold on the flop. I wonder what the SB had, also. I'm guessing QQ or JJ.
Hand 3, 99: Let this be a lesson to recognize what hands beat yours. In this hand you are beat by TT, or 66, otherwise you have the best hand. At some point you should consider slowing down. I'm not quite sure when. But if you insist on raising all the way with the third best hand, don't be too surprised if you are beat by the better hand, it happens.
If it is any consolation to you, I played a similar hand today at the same limit that you are playing, when I got a full house on the turn and lost to a higher full house. The hand was capped on the turn and the river, but at least I realized what hands would beat me, and wasn't that surprised when I lost to a better hand as improbable as that hand was (I lost to Q3 in the big blind). I was hoping that I was against overplayed trips.
Hand 4, AK: Not much to say about this hand, you got a split.
Hand 5, 99: What Nortonesque said.
Statistics: Posted by woody — Sun Jul 16, 2006 9:05 pm
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Hand 2: IMO, you found out exactly what you wanted to with your raise...he 3-bets and you can then fold. A calling station who shows no aggression and has been letting you run him over finally 3-bets? He can have it. I'm folding about 287% of the time to his 3-bet. And then after what he shows, he's going to get called down alot. The guy sadly played it pretty well IMO, which is he made us believe he had the king.
Hand 3: Stop letting people hit one outers against you right now. I love the way you played it.
Hand 4: A push is a win...for the rake.
Too bad a King didn't show up.Hand 5: I probably call down here as well unless my read on opponent is that she won't bet out unless she has a very good hand. If it's a calling station who is only bettin out when she has a monster, I might let it go here to her 3-bet on the flop. If she was very aggressive with draws and marginal hands, I'm calling down all day long.
Statistics: Posted by Danhdan — Sun Jul 16, 2006 5:08 pm
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Hand 2 is an easy fold to a 3-bet from someone with almost no aggression. I like the check raise though -- looks like a really strong hand.
Hand 3 you've really got to put your opponent on a hand, no matter how big yours is. If he's a reasonable opponent he's probably going to slow down on the turn if he has the straight. You've played this hand like you have TT or possibly 99 and he's not slowing down, so if he's a reasonable player that should tell you something.
Hand 4 is fine, nothing you can do about that.
Hand 5 don't pay to see what kind of trash she'll turn over when you already know what kind of trash she'll turn over.
2200 hands is way too small a sample to draw any conclusions about the profitability of a particular hand.
Statistics: Posted by Nortonesque — Sun Jul 16, 2006 4:14 pm
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Opp in this hand has 21.14VP$IP in over 100 hands. No AF at all. I have to call his river bet don't I?
Absolute Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.50/$1
8 players
Pre-flop: (8 players) PayMeDaMoney is BB with
![[8d]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/8d.gif "The Eight of Diamonds")
![[Ac]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Ac.gif "The Ace of Clubs")
3 folds, MP2 calls (1.5:1), CO calls (2.5:1), Button calls (3.5:1), SB calls (4.5:0.5), PayMeDaMoney checks.
Flop:
![[As]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/As.gif "The Ace of Spades")
![[5c]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/5c.gif "The Five of Clubs")
![[5s]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/5s.gif "The Five of Spades")
(5SB, 5 players)SB checks, PayMeDaMoney bets, 2 folds, Button calls (6:1), SB folds.
Turn:
![[Qd]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Qd.gif "The Queen of Diamonds")
(3.5BB, 2 players)PayMeDaMoney bets, Button calls (4.5:1).
River:
![[4s]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/4s.gif "The Four of Spades")
(5.5BB, 2 players)PayMeDaMoney checks, Button bets, PayMeDaMoney calls (6.5:1).
Results:
Final pot: 7.5BB
Button Shows Qs 9s
Absolute Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.50/$1
6 players
Pre-flop: (6 players) PayMeDaMoney is UTG with
![[Th]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Th.gif "The Ten of Hearts")
![[Td]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Td.gif "The Ten of Diamonds")
PayMeDaMoney raises, UTG+1 folds, CO calls (3.5:2), Button folds, SB 3-bets, BB folds, PayMeDaMoney calls (7.5:1), CO calls (8.5:1).
CO has cold called every raise I've made, with a 61.97VP$IP, but has usually folded on the flop when he misses and his AF is close to 0%. He just likes to call. SB has a VP$IP of 39%, but PFR only 6% after 59 hands.
Flop:
![[Kc]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Kc.gif "The King of Clubs")
![[Kd]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Kd.gif "The King of Diamonds")
![[3s]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/3s.gif "The Three of Spades")
(8.5SB, 3 players)SB checks, PayMeDaMoney checks, CO bets, SB calls (9.5:1), PayMeDaMoney raises, CO 3-bets, SB folds, Hero???
SB's check scares me. What the heck could he have 3 bet me with that doesn't beat me here? AQ? My VP$IP and PFR are both very low so he can't think my PFR means nothing. So when CO bets and he only calls I have to believe I'm still ahead somehow, but then when CO, who has shown a tendency to call, but no aggression, 3 bets me here, what do I do?
This ridiculousness just sums up what happens everytime I raise and am unfortunate enough to hit a monster. Hands similar to this, but a little less severe account for most of my big losses. Is there any point here that I can slow down and save any money?
Absolute Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.50/$1
9 players
Pre-flop: (9 players) PayMeDaMoney is MP2 with
![[9s]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/9s.gif "The Nine of Spades")
![[9h]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/9h.gif "The Nine of Hearts")
UTG calls (1.5:1), UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls all-in $0.5, PayMeDaMoney raises, MP3 calls (5.5:2), 3 folds, BB calls (7.5:1), UTG calls (8.5:1).
Flop:
![[6d]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/6d.gif "The Six of Diamonds")
![[Ts]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Ts.gif "The Ten of Spades")
![[9c]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/9c.gif "The Nine of Clubs")
(9.5SB, 4 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: 5.5SB, Sidepot 1: 4SB)BB checks, UTG checks, PayMeDaMoney bets, MP3 calls (10.5:1), BB raises, UTG folds, PayMeDaMoney 3-bets, MP3 folds, BB caps, PayMeDaMoney calls (17.5:1).
Turn:
![[6s]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/6s.gif "The Six of Spades")
(9.25BB, 2 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: 2.75BB, Sidepot 1: 6.5BB)BB bets, PayMeDaMoney raises, BB 3-bets, PayMeDaMoney caps, BB calls (16.25:1).
River:
![[2c]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/2c.gif "The Two of Clubs")
(17.25BB, 2 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: 2.75BB, Sidepot 1: 14.5BB)BB bets, PayMeDaMoney raises, BB 3-bets, PayMeDaMoney caps, BB calls (24.25:1).
Results:
Final pot: 25.25BB
PayMeDaMoney Shows 9s 9h
BB Shows 6h 6c
MP1 mucks As 8s
I'd like to say it got better, but then this crap took place a few hands later.
Absolute Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.50/$1
7 players
Pre-flop: (7 players) PayMeDaMoney is UTG+1 with
![[Ah]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Ah.gif "The Ace of Hearts")
UTG calls (1.5:1), PayMeDaMoney raises, MP1 folds, CO calls (4.5:2), 3 folds, UTG calls (6.5:1).
Flop:
![[2h]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/2h.gif "The Two of Hearts")
![[5d]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/5d.gif "The Five of Diamonds")
![[Ad]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Ad.gif "The Ace of Diamonds")
(7.5SB, 3 players)UTG checks, PayMeDaMoney bets, CO raises, UTG calls (10.5:2), PayMeDaMoney 3-bets, CO calls (14.5:1), UTG calls (15.5:1).
Turn:
![[3c]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/3c.gif "The Three of Clubs")
(8.25BB, 3 players)UTG checks, PayMeDaMoney bets, CO calls (9.25:1), UTG calls (10.25:1).
River:
![[4d]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/4d.gif "The Four of Diamonds")
(11.25BB, 3 players)UTG checks, PayMeDaMoney checks, CO checks.
Results:
Final pot: 11.25BB
UTG Shows 5s Ks
PayMeDaMoney Shows Kd Ah
CO Shows Js Ac
And then my last hand about 10 hands after that was against an 87.76%VP$IP and 56.62%WTSD after 49 hands and at one point won 9 hands in a row with garbage hands. BY far the biggest winner on the table. I just paid to see the what crap she was gonna turn over on the river.
Absolute Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.50/$1
8 players
Pre-flop: (8 players) PayMeDaMoney is UTG+1 with
UTG folds, PayMeDaMoney raises, 4 folds, SB calls (3.5:1.5), BB folds.
Flop:
![[6h]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/6h.gif "The Six of Hearts")
![[4h]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/4h.gif "The Four of Hearts")
(5SB, 2 players)SB bets, PayMeDaMoney raises, SB 3-bets, PayMeDaMoney calls (10:1).
Turn:
(5.5BB, 2 players)SB bets, PayMeDaMoney calls (6.5:1).
River:
![[7d]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/7d.gif "The Seven of Diamonds")
(7.5BB, 2 players)SB bets, PayMeDaMoney calls (8.5:1).
Results:
Final pot: 9.5BB
SB Shows 6s Jc
PayMeDaMoney mucks 9s 9h
Now tell me, besides calling the river on that last hand, where can I save money? Or am I just cursed to be a losing player. After 2,200 hands on 3 different levels, 99 is killing me. I've won only 2 out 9x with it for an average of 1.8BB per hand. Am I over-playing this hand?
Statistics: Posted by MTPaid — Sun Jul 16, 2006 3:10 pm
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Hand 2, AQ: Well done.
Hand 3, 77: Borderline hand to play. I fold this preflop in early, position, but not drastically wrong to limp or raise either, depends on the table. Afterwards, than hand becomes difficult to play. Knowing the result, a fold on the turn would have been obviously a good idea, but calling the hand down seems like a reasonable choice also. Knowing how your opponent plays, woud be helpful.
Statistics: Posted by woody — Thu Jul 13, 2006 10:19 am
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