The Kd is on the board so if another diamond falls you have the second-nut flush, a very strong hand, so you have outs to fall back on if you are checkraised. But you can't give free drawing odds to the draws we just dicussed.
Assuming both call and don't checkraise you, take the free showdown on the river. It is unlikely anybody is calling on the river with a hand you beat if a blank falls anyway.
The real crux of the issue is that if you check the turn and a river nondiamond blank falls, you really cannot fold to a single river bet, so why not invest that bet on the turn when you have some fold equity, not calling with that bet on the river unsure of your situation?
I think if you didn't have the Qd I still bet the turn and fold to a checkraise because between the K and the flush you are beat 99% of the time if you are checkraised.
So either with Qd or without I think you need to bet the turn but for different reasons.
With the Qd, you have outs to fall back on, without the Qd you can fold to a turn checkraise. Either way bet it.Statistics: Posted by growlers — Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:28 pm
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