least 25% to win on the river? Haven't crunched the numbers but I think so...then again I'm an eternal optimist as I get closer to the river, so... PokerStove has you 68% to win on the river against 1 random hand. Don't know how that translates considering 6h dealt and 3 seeing the flop but it is something.
You are 49% to win or tie at the river against 2 random hands...I don't know if I'd try to CR river...I'm ok with the way you played it. I don't think your semibluff chances after the flop were as high as your win chances. Would villiain be this passive after the flop (much less pre-flop) with 88, 99, or TT? I've seen (and played) stranger at Party 2/4. If he's straightforward and careful he may have made trip J on the river and no longer worry about your Q or 2pair possibilities. That would certainly account for the betting.
He might also have limped with Ax or a bigger A if he was very cautious and worried about the UTG limper sandbagging. Not really 'cautious' to bet the flop with zip though into 4 potential callers unless he thought Ax was the best hand.
I'm guessing you were folding to a lead bet on the turn? What about 89s or, more probably 56s for straight draws and a backdoor flush draw with a bluff on the end? This last also accounts for the betting in a straightforward fashion.Statistics: Posted by Calaziar — Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:20 pm
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