Hero has a modest amount of equity against most of the hands he is behind to, and is rarely drawing completely dead. We can't ignore that.
If our opponent would NEVER raise a hand that we're ahead of/if he is also holding AQ, then a fold would be correct. I think it's close enough that what little prior information we have here (you have been consistently getting pushed out of pots, and this is a battle of the blinds) might make calling down the best option.
If we figure the opponent will not raise any hand we're ahead of or splitting with (that is, he'll raise AK, JJ, KK, AA, and most any hand with a K), I figure Hero wins the pot around 10% of the time. If we add in even a small-ish chance of our opponent holding AQ, AJ, AT, or some other random hand we're not thinking of (read as: weird bluff), the scale tips quite quickly toward calling down.
Now, having no experience at the UB 5/10 games, I can't make a sound judgement, as it is EXTREMELY player dependent. If the opponent seems to be at all on the aggressive side in situations like these, or against our hero specifically, or anything like that, it's a clear call-down.
Mad Genius: I think it's quite likely our opponent would play KQ, KT, or even something like K9 or K8 this way, especially if he's paying any attention and the hero is capable of stealing at least somewhat liberally. Put yourself in your opponent's shoes, and pretend you have KQ, KT, etc. While there's a ton of hands "hero" would raise with from the SB that have us absolutely crushed, there's also a good deal that we are now ahead of, and hero will probably bet this flop somewhere around 100% of the time after raising preflop.
Statistics: Posted by Snoogins47 — Wed Mar 30, 2005 7:51 am
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Statistics: Posted by cholo loco — Wed Mar 30, 2005 5:41 am
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The fact that this is a heads-up battle of the blinds makes laying down a bit tougher, but I still think a fold is correct here. After you 3-bet the flop, it's hard to think he'd raise you on the turn without a king (or possible QT).
-TW
Statistics: Posted by TightWad — Fri Mar 18, 2005 5:49 pm
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Ultimate Bet 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed)
Preflop: kennyg is SB with
![[Qc]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Qc.gif "The Queen of Clubs")
, ![[Ac]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Ac.gif "The Ace of Clubs")
. 8 folds, kennyg raises, BB calls.
Flop: (4 SB)
![[Kh]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Kh.gif "The King of Hearts")
, ![[Js]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Js.gif "The Jack of Spades")
, ![[Ad]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Ad.gif "The Ace of Diamonds")
(2 players)kennyg bets, BB raises, kennyg 3-bets, BB calls.
Turn: (5 BB)
![[Kc]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Kc.gif "The King of Clubs")
(2 players)kennyg bets, BB raises, kennyg folds.
Final Pot: 8 BB
Results in white below:
No showdown. BB wins 8 BB.
Statistics: Posted by kennyg — Fri Mar 18, 2005 5:44 pm
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