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So if you can't fold to a raise, don't bet in the first place.
But if you CAN fold to a raise (and we should strive to be able to in this hand):
Here are the salient points:
I think that QQ/KK/TT/Ac9 all call here and are all plausible hands (Ac5 is a stretch to call preflop). So there are some hands that call a bet.
The problem with check/caling is that if villian had a set (now river boat), made flush, or a J we can assume he always bets river if checked to, and we have already said we have to call if we check.
So we really don't "save a bet when we are beat" as bigwheel said, as any player bets any of those hands when checked to and those are the only hands that beat us anyway and we are calling.
So really this is pretty simple given the above statements, there are only two variables left:
If[ times villian has QQ/KK/TT/Ac9 and calls] is > [times villian bluffs river with unimproved Acx] = then betting is +EV.
I don't think villian bluffs much here so inducing a bluff is not a big %.
So therefore I bet/fold.
Tell me if I am missing something.
Statistics: Posted by growlers — Mon Jun 18, 2007 3:48 am
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Hand 1:
Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is SB with
![[Js]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Js.gif "The Jack of Spades")
![[Jc]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Jc.gif "The Jack of Clubs")
5 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, BB folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls.
Flop:
![[6d]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/6d.gif "The Six of Diamonds")
![[Jh]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Jh.gif "The Jack of Hearts")
![[As]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/As.gif "The Ace of Spades")
(13SB, 4 players)Hero bets, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button raises, Hero calls, MP3 3-bets, Button calls, Hero calls.
Turn:
![[2h]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/2h.gif "The Two of Hearts")
(11BB, 3 players)Hero checks, MP3 bets, Button calls, Hero raises, MP3 3-bets, Button calls, Hero caps, MP3 calls, Button calls.
River:
![[3s]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/3s.gif "The Three of Spades")
(23BB, 3 players)Hero bets, MP3 raises, Button calls, Hero calls.
Results:
Final pot: 29BB
MP3 shows Ah Ad
Button doesn't show Jd Ac
Hero doesn't show Js Jc
Same session:
Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is MP1 with
![[Qc]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Qc.gif "The Queen of Clubs")
![[Qd]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Qd.gif "The Queen of Diamonds")
UTG calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG calls.
Flop:
![[9c]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/9c.gif "The Nine of Clubs")
![[8s]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/8s.gif "The Eight of Spades")
![[2d]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/2d.gif "The Two of Diamonds")
(7.4SB, 3 players)UTG checks, Hero bets, Button calls, UTG calls.
Turn:
![[6h]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/6h.gif "The Six of Hearts")
(5.2BB, 3 players)UTG checks, Hero bets, Button calls, UTG folds.
River:
![[7s]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/7s.gif "The Seven of Spades")
(7.2BB, 2 players)Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.
Results:
Final pot: 9.2BB
Button shows Tc Ac
Hero doesn't show Qc Qd
Another one:
Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is UTG+1 with
![[Ac]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Ac.gif "The Ace of Clubs")
UTG folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, BB folds.
Flop:
![[5c]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/5c.gif "The Five of Clubs")
(7SB, 3 players)SB checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, SB folds.
Turn:
![[3h]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/3h.gif "The Three of Hearts")
(4.5BB, 2 players)Hero bets, MP3 calls.
River:
(6.5BB, 2 players)Hero bets, MP3 raises, Hero calls.
Results:
Final pot: 10.5BB
MP3 shows 9s 9h
Hero doesn't show Ac As
Statistics: Posted by infinity — Sun Jun 17, 2007 8:34 am
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