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What I really see here is just an argument for not re-raising AA. If that's the conclusion, then I can live with it--misses an occasional opportunity but also avoids some major difficulties.
Anyhow, on the one hand, you're making a big argument for calling the re-raise with a very wide range of hands and show that it's going to be -EV for AA.
On the other hand, you want AA to risk full stack... ??
On the small bet, anyway, I don't think it necessarily has to mean that you're prepared to lay down. It's just testing to see how hard they hit. If you pot it every time on your re-raised AA, it's at least clear to me that that is a losing strategy.
Anyhow, one can also construct various board here where the whole thing becomes less difficult--like K72 rainbow. Ok, there are no draws, either someone hit with their KK or 77 or they didn't. That seems to me more like a "potting board" because AA should be ahead most of the time (and few will call with just any pair, although it may actually be the best play). On the Q96 board, almost every drawing hand has hit something.
In re-raise pots at the 1/2, I see almost everyone potting it as CB, but I'm very skeptical that this is any kind of winning strategy.
Monk, when, if ever, DO you re-raise? And, if you re-raise, do you always pot it as CB?
Statistics: Posted by Aisthesis — Mon Mar 13, 2006 9:32 pm
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I think you want to either be all-in PF or to have maybe 10% of your stack committed. Otherwise, it puts you in a serious mess.
I don't think you can make just a general EV calculation in Omaha (or, maybe, with some kind of huge computer simulation), but I did make one for that particular board on hands where I think calling the re-raise is reasonable.
Statistics: Posted by Aisthesis — Mon Mar 13, 2006 3:45 pm
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While I also see people calling re-raises with very strange hands, let's consider which ones actually SHOULD consider calling that: Split pot with AA should come over the top, really (imo), although might want to take away from you a split pot. Strong KK, strong QQ, very strong JJ (maybe KQJJds or JJTTds or QJJT), wraps. As I say, I've seen a lot of callers with less, but those are imo reasonable to play to the re-raise.
Ok, if you're going to re-raise and then pot it, you're risking $100 when you lose for a gain of $38 when you win. Hence, just to break even, you need to win about 2.5 times for every time you lose.
Now, a hand like KKJJ lays down. QJT9 calls, and you're way behind. JT98 calls (?) and is presumably ahead (outs: anything 7 through K except a 9 or a Q). T987 calls and is about the same. 9876 is already clearly ahead. 8765 can probably only call with 2 diamonds. 4567 is probably a little thin for calling the re-raise in the first place and certainly folds. Any QQ or 99 (KK99 isn't all that bad for calling the re-raise either) clearly calls and is way ahead. Admittedly, all of the wraps are weakened if they don't have diamonds, but I think the ones already including 2 pair simply MUST call even without diamonds.
While players do make a lot of bad calls to the re-raise, I don't think you can win this 2.5 times for every time you make that play on this board--IF they're calling with truly premium hands.
I guess that pretty much sums up the AA dilemma. I'm not sure how to deal with it and am still convinced that the re-raise can't be a mistake.
I am currently inclined to re-raise only the junkier AA hands, although arguments could be made for quite the reverse (re-raising the really strong ones). But, if you have any AAds, I am at least inclined to think that you hit enough flops to make it more advantageous to just see the flop along with a bunch of others in a raised pot rather than to thin the field further. You have top set possibilities with some deception, and you have 2 flush draws. With a junky AA, you just have top set against a large field.
I think I'll post a couple of mine in a separate thread, also to illustrate the whole problem.
Statistics: Posted by Aisthesis — Mon Mar 13, 2006 2:29 pm
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Blinds: $0.50/$1
8 players
Stack sizes:
UTG: $233.85
Hero: $98.50
MP1: $93.50
MP2: $336.35
CO: $114
Button: $81.30
SB: $108.90
BB: $41
Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is UTG+1 with
![[8s]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/8s.gif "The Eight of Spades")
![[9h]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/9h.gif "The Nine of Hearts")
![[Ah]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Ah.gif "The Ace of Hearts")
![[Ad]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Ad.gif "The Ace of Diamonds")
UTG folds, Hero calls $1, MP1 raises to $3, 3 folds, SB raises to $11.5, BB folds, Hero raises to $38, MP1 folds, SB calls $26.
Flop:
![[Qd]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Qd.gif "The Queen of Diamonds")
![[6d]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/6d.gif "The Six of Diamonds")
![[9c]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/9c.gif "The Nine of Clubs")
($80, 2 players)SB checks, Hero is all-in $61.5
Still working on this whole AA thing. Decent enough connectors and single suited. Too much or acceptable risk? I really don't like that flop but without a set, JT or diamonds, he can't call right?
Statistics: Posted by briachek — Mon Mar 13, 2006 1:11 am
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