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You win 8% of the time. Spades win 34% of the time (the 7 is also a great card for him). The 55 hand wins 1% of the time. And the pot is split 57% of the time.
My guess is that you need at least something like 4 true winning outs to make this call clearly profitable--and that's in a 3-way pot. You probably need a few more (maybe 6 if you assume your opponent has the flush freeroll?) to make an all-in call like this HU.
On the other hand, it's rather difficult to create this situation HU. If you have the nuts with even 4 outs plus runner-runner, I'm guessing it would be worth flat calling (given sufficient stack depth) to see if the turn hurts or helps you (such as giving your runner-runner an equal shot at it). Also, so many players semi-bluff that I think it's almost impossible to lay down the nuts immediately to a pot-sized re-raise even without any redraw.
Statistics: Posted by Aisthesis — Tue Mar 14, 2006 5:49 am
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I would have bet it out, but the result is the same.
Anyhow, you have 2456 with two clubs. So you have runner-runner boating chances (which may not help if someone has straight with trips), runner-runner clubs, and the only 4 left in the deck to improve your straight. I think all of these are important, because your hand at least CAN improve to win the pot outright.
Let me at least attempt to do some kind of EV calculation here. Ok, I'll just assume that both of them have spades. So, there are 6 spades accounted for and 7 left in the deck. This obviously isn't the only situation where this kind of action can occur. You might have AA trying to fill up and/or a flush WITHOUT the made straight. But I think both of those would be rather bad plays.
You have $10 invested, and it costs you $79 more for a chance at a pot of about $200. So, you're really getting about 2.5:1
Now one of those players makes the nut flush 25% of the time (should be roughly accurate), and you lose $79 for a net of -$25.
If the pot is split, which will be about 70% of the time, you actually net only something like $4 (your 1/3 of the $10 already invested plus your share of the dead money). So, that's something like a net of $3.
I'm just going to call it 5% of the time (which seems roughly accurate--I guess one should run the actual hands through the Omaha calcuator here), that you win the whole thing, and net $195 (close enough anyway). So, that gives you a plus of only about $10.
If that's the scenario, I think you have to lay it down. Your redraw is too thin.
I think it becomes profitable, however, if you think at least ONE of them doesn't already have a made splitting hand, because then the most frequent result splits whatever that player put in the pot, and that's a sizeable amount--enough, I think, to compensate for the fact that the flush may take it away from you a fair percentage of the time.
Anyhow, it looks to me close to marginal but still probably a bad call. I also find it almost impossible to lay down the nuts even without a redraw, but I know it's a major leak. Fortunately, it doesn't come up that often.
Statistics: Posted by Aisthesis — Tue Mar 14, 2006 4:49 am
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Poker Stars
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
8 players
Converter
Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is BB with
![[6d]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/6d.gif "The Six of Diamonds")
![[4d]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/4d.gif "The Four of Diamonds")
![[2c]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/2c.gif "The Two of Clubs")
![[5c]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/5c.gif "The Five of Clubs")
UTG calls $1, UTG+1 calls $1, MP1 calls $1, MP2 calls $1, CO calls $1, Button calls $1, SB folds, Hero checks.
Flop:
![[3c]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/3c.gif "The Three of Clubs")
![[As]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/As.gif "The Ace of Spades")
![[2s]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/2s.gif "The Two of Spades")
($7.5, 7 players)Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets $4, 2 folds, CO raises to $10, Button folds, Hero calls $10, UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $34, CO raises all-in $103.5, Hero calls all-in $89, UTG+1 calls $73.5.
Turn:
![[6c]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/6c.gif "The Six of Clubs")
($313.5, 1 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $304.5, Sidepot 1: $9)River:
![[Tc]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Tc.gif "The Ten of Clubs")
($313.5, 1 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $304.5, Sidepot 1: $9)Results:
Final pot: $313.5
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Hallelujah: shows
![[4h]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/4h.gif "The Four of Hearts")
![[5s]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/5s.gif "The Five of Spades")
![[8s]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/8s.gif "The Eight of Spades")
![[6s]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/6s.gif "The Six of Spades")
(a straight, Deuce to Six)Dublgutshot: shows
![[5d]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/5d.gif "The Five of Diamonds")
![[4s]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/4s.gif "The Four of Spades")
![[Ad]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Ad.gif "The Ace of Diamonds")
![[5h]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/5h.gif "The Five of Hearts")
(a straight, Deuce to Six)Hallelujah collected $4.50 from side pot
Dublgutshot collected $4.50 from side pot
Rhound50: shows
(a flush, Ten high)Rhound50 collected $301.50 from main pot
Statistics: Posted by Rhound50 — Tue Mar 14, 2006 2:28 am
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