Statistics: Posted by cholo loco — Mon Jan 31, 2005 9:25 pm
]]>
He probably either has a set or something like AA with a middle flush draw or wrap. Considering the worst case scenario, that he has a set with the same straight draw as you (i.e. that you can only improve to a flush to win, or a straight to tie) you still win one third of the time. The pot is paying you 3-1, and you can really call a pot-sized all in (2-1) with this hand. I estimate that against his possible range of holdings you probably hold somewhere in the region of 40% of the equity in this pot, so it's a pretty easy call.
As an aside, if his all in was for the whole pot I would consider folding here, and I would be incorrect in doing so because your hand (even against a set with the same wrap draw) is winning slightly over a third of the time. A nut flush draw against any sort of hand is always going to hold around 25% of the pot equity minimum, and will almost always be around 30% or slightly more.
Here's a quick and handy guide to the sort of all-in figures you're looking at on the flop with a nut flush draw:
Nut flush draw vs Set, with no blocking flush cards: You win ~30%
Nut flush draw vs Overpair of aces, with no blocking flush cards: You win ~45% (you can win by hitting a running pair as well as your draw)
Nut flush draw vs Straight with no blocking flush cards: You win ~40%
Nut flush draw vs top two pair with no blocking flush cards: You win ~45% (though this can vary greatly depending on the two pair, and the cards you have above it; it never really falls below 40% though).
For each blocking flush card in your opponent's hand, you lose around 3% equity.
These figures are, of course, for the flop.
On the turn, there's only one card left and either 40 unseen (if you know/guess an opponent's hand) or 44 unseen not considering your opponent, so you can work out your chance of winning by taking your number of outs as a % of the number of unseen cards. If you're sure all your outs are clean and not in your opponent's hand, you need 14 outs to call a pot sized raise on the turn which sets you all in; otherwise, 15 certain outs will be enough. If you have less than this number but some "possible" outs (i.e. straight outs you don't know are good, a baby flush in another suit, a two pair which may or may not be good if it improves to a boat etc) then you can consider those as an extra few % of equity to allow you to call.
These figures are worth memorising, and considering when making decisions like this
also, check out the outs/win% table in my latest pot limit omaha article which considers "Betting Strategies in PLO" in the articles section on the front page www.livepokerforum.comHope this helps,
Monk
xxxxx
Statistics: Posted by Felonius_Monk — Mon Jan 31, 2005 9:27 am
]]>
its $55 to me and there is like 150 in the pot.
aside from not checkraising the flop (thoughts on that are still appreciated thopugh) what should my course of action be.
getting almost 3-1 seems like enough (thanks impart to my boneheaded beefing of the pot)
ty
matty
Statistics: Posted by cholo loco — Mon Jan 31, 2005 7:17 am
]]>