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I want at least 65-35 here, while 67-33 is break-even to the river.
If we change it to TT2s2d, it becomes 64-36, and if we make it TT2d3d, it's 67-33.
While I don't really expect diamonds in the set hand, I do expect some of your outs to be gone--at least 2 here, with shorty in the pot. So, I still think it's pretty marginal.
If you don't mind, I'll take the liberty of semi-hijacking with my big hand of the day, where I figured I had 20 or so outs and was ahead of the set. Note how despite my apparent outs, so many of them are gone that I really wouldn't have pushing equity here. I think a 3rd player in the hand usually means that you need to reduce your own "outs" calculation substantially. Anyhow, here's the hand:
Raiser has ThTc9s9d
Caller has JcJdQh5c
Poker Stars
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
9 players
Stack sizes:
UTG: $99.85
Hero: $103.65
MP1: $9.85
MP2: $115.50
MP3: $98
CO: $32.45
Button: $87.35
SB: $34.50
BB: $68.65
Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG+1 with
![[Qc]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Qc.gif "The Queen of Clubs")
![[Kd]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Kd.gif "The King of Diamonds")
![[Ac]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Ac.gif "The Ace of Clubs")
![[Js]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Js.gif "The Jack of Spades")
UTG folds, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP2 raises to $3, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls.
Flop:
![[8c]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/8c.gif "The Eight of Clubs")
![[Td]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Td.gif "The Ten of Diamonds")
![[Kc]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Kc.gif "The King of Clubs")
($18.5, 6 players)BB checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets $15, CO calls, 2 folds, Hero raises to $77.6, MP1 folds, MP2 raises all-in $112.5, CO calls all-in $14.45, Hero calls all-in $23.05.
Uncalled bets: $11.85 returned to MP2.
Turn:
![[Jh]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Jh.gif "The Jack of Hearts")
($249.25, 0 player + 3 all-in - Main pot: $106.85, Sidepot 1: $142.4)River:
![[6h]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/6h.gif "The Six of Hearts")
($249.25, 0 player + 3 all-in - Main pot: $106.85, Sidepot 1: $142.4)Results:
Final pot: $249.25
Equity here:
me: 40%
JJQ: 7%
TT: 53%
Statistics: Posted by Aisthesis — Wed Jun 07, 2006 11:58 pm
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I'll have to run this to make sure, but I really think I'd need some small extra to call even with 13 (like runner-runner flush draw or a big pair that could outrun top set--which actually does add two outs).
I'll have to check the odds calculator to see where you're at with your 12. I think it's -EV HU vs. TT with no other diamonds at all (the Td is going to be an irrelevant out anyway) and no 8, but it's probably pretty close. I just like ot be +EV playing for stack if at all possible.
Statistics: Posted by Aisthesis — Wed Jun 07, 2006 6:55 pm
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2. I am blocking my own outs
Now... what about if we assume that it IS the nut flush draw and I'm NOT blocking myself?
Since that's the hand I thought I had when I played it.Statistics: Posted by Stoneburg — Wed Jun 07, 2006 5:24 pm
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Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
9 players
Stack sizes:
UTG: $22.80
UTG+1: $77.35
MP1: $14.72
MP2: $3.70
Hero: $64.96
CO: $23.15
Button: $33.24
SB: $31.95
BB: $24.15
Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP3 with
![[Jd]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Jd.gif "The Jack of Diamonds")
![[As]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/As.gif "The Ace of Spades")
![[9d]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/9d.gif "The Nine of Diamonds")
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, Hero raises to $1.35, CO calls, Button calls, 3 folds, MP2 calls.
Flop:
![[5d]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/5d.gif "The Five of Diamonds")
![[Tc]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Tc.gif "The Ten of Clubs")
![[7d]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/7d.gif "The Seven of Diamonds")
($6, 4 players)MP2 checks, Hero bets $5.7, CO calls, Button raises to $28.5, MP2 calls all-in $2.35, Hero calls $22.8 (pot was $48.25), CO folds.
Turn:
![[7h]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/7h.gif "The Seven of Hearts")
($71.05, 2 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: $15.4, Sidepot 1: $55.65)Hero checks, Button raises all-in $3.39, Hero calls $3.39 (pot was $74.44).
Flop raiser is one of the muppets from the "bottom two" thread, he's 70/20.
Statistics: Posted by Stoneburg — Wed Jun 07, 2006 4:24 am
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