First, I think the $25 tables are bad for bluffing anyway. I won't say "never" there, but I'd be VERY sparing. I think that's a game to nut-peddle at.
Now as to hand 1: I don't like it in principle. I think the main key to a good bluff is that you've represented all the way through the hand exactly what they fear. For example (not meaning to harp on this one, but it's clearly my most successful PLO bluff), board is something like K65ss, which seems to be my favorite example board for some reason, but it's nice in that it's fairly rich in terms of draws. I bet out either flush draw or straight draw or both in LP. This works much better on checks or passive bets here, as full pot here, at least online, usually means one set or the other. This line is far more successful after a check-call from EP or MP or passive bet, call my pot-sized raise.
Anyhow, the board pairs on the turn, and it's checked to me. I'll effectively always now bet out half pot at this point, and I figure I have here well over 80% fold equity in the scenario outlined. I might refrain against completely moronic calling stations, but a drawing hand simply cannot proceed at that point against a very clearly represented full.
So, the reason I don't like the bluff on hand 1 is that the hand you're attempting to represent is a backdoor flush. Ok, you could have it, but it's purely random whether you do or don't, hence purely random whether they'll call or not. By contrast, if the river was a 4, then, yes, by all means, bet whatever represents your full (for me, I always bet half-pot on that one, and my bluff is exactly the same). But you've repped 99 here all the way through. You indicated you were scared of the straight on the turn--accurately, too, because it completely screws your straight draw.
I really think a good bluff has to rely on clear representation of the particular hand which now appears scary. The way you play it, it feels more to me like a last-ditch effort to salvage this pot on a board that's scary where you more than likely actually don't have it but might have stumbled into it.
I'll check out the other hands as well as comments later. Must run for now.
Statistics: Posted by Aisthesis — Sat Jun 24, 2006 12:30 am
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Hand #2
I really doubt I will be called 50% of the time or more. Those minibets are either extremely stupid bluffs or blocking bets made by some stupidly weak hand like an over pair or top-and-bottom.
One of the reasons I am looking for good spots to bluff is that I am NOT getting called on the river often enough when I am valuebetting. People are definetely calling less than 50% of my bets on the river, more like 20-25%, so I would be giving up a lot of EV if I didn't start bluffing.
I'd say my bluffs get called about a 25-35% of the time. When I say I sometimes make more on bluffs than on made hands it's for those sessions where no draws hit and you always have to fold the turn/river to the opponent, and without the bluffs you'd be in the red.
I also find that people tend to be calling stations *until* the river. They will chase a LOT of draws that they shouldn't be chasing but will pretty often give up on the river. Of course there are monkeys that can't let go of any two-pair but they tend to bust so quickly that they don't stick around long, the ones that fold to the big river bets tend to survive much longer.
And I don't mean to sound snippy, but I've already heard the "It's low stakes just nut peddle" argument a lot of times so I am aware that it is the common opinion. And sure, it is +EV and low variance but I happen to think that:
1. It isn't optimal. You're leaving money on the table.
2. If I just nut peddle I won't get better and be able to move up in levels.
Either way I really appreciate the feedback (and yes, of course I won both hands
)Statistics: Posted by Stoneburg — Fri Jun 23, 2006 3:57 am
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Hand 2 looks like a spot where they're not going to call, though.
Statistics: Posted by Felonius_Monk — Fri Jun 23, 2006 1:27 am
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hand 2 - its not worth the price because its not gonna work often enough. Don't be looking to bluff this low.
Statistics: Posted by briachek — Thu Jun 22, 2006 1:48 pm
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